Paul Fisher

Please do not adjust your monitors: that strange, non-green color greeting you this morning is not a "glitch." Following yesterday's market drubbing, in which a modest 1% decline in the S&P ended up being the biggest market drop of 2013, we next got a wipe out in China, where the SHCOMP plunged by 3% the most in 15 months, down the third day out of four since the start of the year of the Snake on renewed concerns around home purchase restrictions urged by the government, but mostly driven by rampant liquidations of commodity-related stocks following yet another liquidity withdrawing repo (not reverse) by the PBOC which took out even more money out of the market. We then continued to Europe where despite the near-record surge in German optimism (because in the New Normal hope is a strategy - the only strategy), German manufacturing PMI missed expectations of a rise to 50.5 from 49.8, instead printing at 50.1, while the Services PMI outright declined from 55.7 to 54.1 (55.5 expected).  We wonder how much higher this latest economic disappointment will push German investor confidence. Not too unexpectedly, Europe's suddenly weakest economy France also disappointed with its Mfg PMI missing as well, rising from 42.9 to 43.6, on expectations of a 43.8 print, while Services PMI declined from 43.6 to 42.7, on "hopes" of a rise to 44.5. The result was a miss in Europe's composite PMIs with the Manufacturing posting at 47.8 on expectations of 48.5, while the Services PMI was 47.3, with 49.0 expected, and a blended PMI missing just as much, or 47.3 with 49.0 expected, and down from 48.6. The news, which finally reasserted reality over hopium, immediately pushed the EURUSD to under 1.32, the lowest print since January 10. Therefore while Germany may or may not escape recession in Q1, depending on how aggressively they fudge their export numbers, for France it seems all hope is now lost.

Last week we introduced our readers to the BIS' Head of Foreign Exchange and Gold, Benoit Gilson. As this week's induction into the FleeceBook hall of fame of faceless individuals behind the scenes whose fingers are on all the relevant buttons, we present to you Michael Cross, Head of Foreign Exchange, and Executive Director for Markets, at the Bank of England, a role which with the arrival of the BoE's new Goldman leader will become quite crucial in the coming weeks as the race to debase finally crosses the English Channel and it is cable's turn to crash and burn against all other currencies.

There are clear signs of a liquidity crunch in the asset markets right now, and the question I keep hearing is, Is this 2008 all over again? No, it’s worse. Much worse. In 2008 there was a lot more faith and optimism upon which to draw. But both have been squandered to significant degrees by feckless regulators and authorities who failed to properly address any of the root causes of the first crisis even as they slathered layer after layer of thin-air money over many of the symptoms. Anyone who has paid attention knows that those "magic potions" proved to be anything but. Not only are the root causes still with us (too much debt, vast regional financial imbalances, and high energy prices), but they have actually grown worse the entire time. As always, we have no idea exactly what is going to happen and when, but we can track the various stresses and strains, noting that more and wider fingers of instability increase the risk of a major event. Heading into 2012, there's enough data to warrant maintaining an extremely cautious stance regarding holding onto one's wealth and increasing one's preparations towards resilience.

All you need to read.

All you need to read.

In the week ahead, we are waiting for the second batch of key activity data in the form of service sector and non-manufacturing surveys, as well as US payrolls. The Chinese non-manufacturing PMI has already been released over the weekend, showing a decline from 61.9 to 57.0. After last week's key votes in Greece, headline risk should decline though we are now entering the phase where the final negotiations for the second support package take place. The updated funding strategy for Greece will likely be unveiled by Eurozone Finance Ministers on July 11. There will be central bank meetings by the ECB (+25bp), BOE (on hold), in Malaysia (+25bp), Mexico (on hold), and Poland (on hold).

Remember the whole UK stagflation scare, where the misery index recently hit a 20 year high, as both inflation and unemployment surged to two decade highs, keeping the GBP strong on expectations of rate hikes by the BOE? Well, the stagflation is still there, but according to just released BOE minutes, there has been a sudden 180 within the Monetary Policy Committee, which has now flipflopped, and just as we predicted, has fallen back to the traditional central bank fall back plan, namely "buy more bonds" as despite surging inflation, the country's central planners once again view deflation as a greater threat. As Bloomberg reports: "Bank of England minutes showed some policy makers see a potential need for further bond purchases as the economic recovery struggles and “downside” risks to growth and inflation mount. For the majority of the nine-member Monetary Policy Committee, “the fiscal challenges in the euro-area periphery highlighted the potential for further adverse shocks to demand,” according to minutes of the June 8-9 meeting published today in London. “For some of these members, it was possible that further asset purchases might become warranted if the downside risks to medium-term inflation materialized." So the spin now is not to worry about that surging inflation: it's "transitory"... just as the imminent UK QE2 will be: "While U.K. inflation was 4.5 percent in May, more than twice the central bank’s target, Governor Mervyn King said last week that the current price surge is temporary as he defended keeping the key rate on hold to aid the economic recovery during the government’s budget cuts. Paul Fisher said yesterday that adding to the bank’s bond program remains “very much on the table” as a policy tool." Next up: a major quantitative easing episode out of Japan as the two "peripheral" developed economies attempt to fill the void left by the Fed and fail miserably, at which point Bernanke will have no choice but to get involved as well.

The idea of turning the EU into a Bankster's Paradise (where you lose sovereignty to your creditors) slapped the Dollar down to it's lows of the day and boosted the EU markets and US futures and gave us our re-shorting opportunity on oil.

Today the pound surged by more than 2% against the euro, its biggest jump since January, after an interview in the FT with BOE executive director for markets Paul Fisher hinted that the UK may be coming to an end on the UK's version of quantitative easing. While the entire interview is a must read for the latest in Central Bank thoughts on numerous issues such as the Input gap, deflation and fiscal policy, it is the topic of QE that sparked the move in the GBP. Curiously, even CBs are unable to disentangle the vicious loop of an "improving economy" driven exclusively from a declining national currency, which in turn lifts equities as the underlying debt deflates or inflates with every tick of whatever the respective currency seems to do: just look at the S&P - it trades not with any fundamentals (the euphoria in AA and INTC stocks is well over with the gaps on their "stellar" earnings about to be filled) but merely with what the perceived value of debt is as represented by currency fluctuations. And of course, and decline in the currency is seen as an equity positive. Yet even countries such as Britain, which have benefited immensely from doing just what the Fed has proven to be an expert in (printing, printing, printing), are realizing the time to pull the plus is near. The question: when, if ever, willBernanke finally follow suit as well?

UK faces quite considerable headwinds
UK banking system not in strong position to lend
UK recession put downward pressure on inflation
BOE has bought GBP 96 billion of assets in APF
"If you withdraw stimulus too quickly face risk of renewed downturn"

UK faces quite considerable headwinds
UK banking system not in strong position to lend
UK recession put downward pressure on inflation
BOE has bought GBP 96 billion of assets in APF
"If you withdraw stimulus too quickly face risk of renewed downturn"
"Obvious first step to tighten policy is to raise bank rate, not on verge of doing this"
"More concerned about below target inflation than deflation"
"We do need more powers to control the growth of financial sector"