Citigroup

Everything You Need To Know About The Italian Referendum (& Should Be Afraid To Ask)

While the post-Trump euphoria in US stocks has been the perfect distraction from the ugly realities elsewhere, this weekend's Italian Referendum could well be the biggest 'revolt' yet, topping Brexit and Trump. Should Italy vote "no", as polls forecast, PM Renzi may quit, leaving the Italian bank recapitalization would then be in jeopardy and, as Bloomberg's Mark Cranfield warns "we could be looking at a Greece-like market reaction on steroids."

'Real' Money & Why You Need It Now, Part 2

"It might work for a while. But the falcon of asset prices becomes deaf to the falconer of the real economy. Then, in a kind of financial never-never land, he gets lost completely and flies into a tree. Asset prices fall to the ground. Investors panic. Lenders call their loans. Art investors rush to auction off their tableaux. Lines form at ATMs."

Venezuelan President Threatens Legal Action Over JPMorgan's "Campaign Of Terror"

...the payments were "in effect, sent to Citibank and then JPMorgan comes out with that totally false information this afternoon." Del Pino raged that Citibank deliberately delayed payments from PDVSA as part of a “campaign of terror” against the company and Venezuelan President Maduro is looking into legal action against JPMorgan over their report.

Frontrunning: November 22

  • Record highs for Wall Street quartet send other stocks higher (Reuters)
  • Oil prices rise to highest this month on hopes of OPEC deal (Reuters)
  • OPEC Likely to Reach Output Consensus, Delegate Says (WSJ)
  • Trump’s Targets in First 100 Days: Trade, Regulation, Corruption (BBG)
  • Trump Poised to Push Nafta Changes, Pressure Mexico on Trade (WSJ)

Frontrunning: November 21

  • Dollar dips, stocks fall as Trumpflation trade pauses (Reuters)
  • A profile of RenTec's Medallion fund: Inside a Moneymaking Machine Like No Other (BBG)
  • Mattis, Christie, Giuliani in contention for top posts (Reuters)
  • Paulson’s Big Long: A Bet on Trump Yields Power and Profit (BBG)
  • Ex-PM Fillon is favorite to win French conservative presidential ticket (Reuters)
  • In weekend of deliberation, Mattis favored for Trump Pentagon chief (Reuters)

Trumpflation Takes A Breather As Global Stocks Rise, Oil Jumps On Renewed OPEC "Deal Optimism"

With the Trumpflation euphoria easing back slightly overnight, leading to a modest paring in the USD index and US Treasury yields, Asian and European stocks rose, while US equity futures rebounded to just shy of new all time highs, as crude jumped on renewed optimism that OPEC will agree to cut output; metals rebounded from last week’s losses as yields dropped and the dollar halted its longest winning streak versus the euro.

Surge In Online Loan Defaults Sends Shockwaves Through The Industry

In a page taken right out of the CDO book of 2007, delinquencies and defaults on at least four different sets of bonds have reached the "triggers" points. Breaching those levels would force lenders or underwriters to start paying down the bonds early, redirecting cash from other uses such as lending and organic growth. According to Bloomberg, one company, Avant Inc. and its underwriters, will have to begin to repay three of its asset-backed notes, which have all breached trigger levels.

Copper Is Having It's Best Week Ever As Chinese Speculators Run Amok (Again)

Copper has never, ever, risen at such a torid pace as this week. Blowing away any week's performance of the last 30 years, copper futures are up almost 20% as hopes for US President-Elect Trump's infrastructure spending extended its winning streak to an unprecedented 15 days in a row (up over 28%). There is just one problem - just like we saw in Iron ore over the summer, speculation (reportedly from Chinese traders) is running wild.