Citigroup

If there was any doubt that global trade is stalling, it was promptly wiped out following the latest abysmal Chinese trade data which saw exports tumble by 15% - the most in over a year - on expectations of a 8% rebound, with the trade surplus coming in at CNY18.2 billion, far below the lowest estimate. While unnecessary, with the Chinese GDP growth rate this Wednesday already expect to print at a record low, this was further evidence of weak demand both at home and abroad. Weakness was seen in most key markets, and the strength of China's currency was partly to blame, which again brings up China's CNY devaluation and ultimately QE, which as we wrote some time ago, is the ultimate endgame in the global reflation trade which, at least for now until the CBs begin active money paradropping to everyone not just the 0.01%, is only leading to inflation in stocks and deflation in everything else.v

“In my 30-year career, it’s one of the most unattractive risk-return propositions that I’ve seen,” DoubleLine's Bonnie Baha says. Between abysmally low yields, heightened rate sensitivity heading into a rate hike cycle, and balance sheet re-leveraging on the part of US corporations, it’s a bad time to be betting on corporate credit.

"The fair value of hedges held by 57 U.S. companies in the Bloomberg Intelligence North America Independent Explorers and Producers index rose to $26 billion as of Dec. 31, a fivefold increase from the end of September," Bloomberg writes, noting that the very same Wall Street banks on the hook for the hedges also financed the shale boom.

The universe of entities who have blown up in the past year trading oil and commodities is getting increasingly more crowded and includes among them such former luminaries as one-time oil trading god (if mostly in the eyes of Citigroup) Andy Hall. However, until now there not been any prominent casualties among the group of indirect investors in the energy space, those investing in the stocks or debt of energy names, and especially those most at risk from the oil price collapse: junk bond investors. That changed today when as WSJ reported earlier, Kamunting Street, which managed about $1 billion at its peak, announced it was returning capital to investors, as a result of plunging oil prices and wrong way junk bond bets tied to hard-hit energy companies which had gone sour over the past nine months.

Yesterday afternoon Viacom revealed that as part of its "Strategic Realignment to Create Efficiencies and Drive Long-Term Growth" it would do something which the market loathes: it would stop its buybacks. Specifically it said that "Viacom will temporarily pause share purchases under its current $20 billion stock repurchase program in order to stay within its target leverage ratio." What Viacom meant was that just like IBM, its net debt ratio had likewise soared in the past several years, and had reached a level where the Baa2/BBB-rated company was on the verge of being cut to junk status. So is Viacom a harbinger for the broader market, a market which as we reported previously only, had a tremendous month of February only because of a record $100 billion in announced stock buybacks? The answer: a resounding yes.

To answer an age-old question, namely who is smarter - credit or equity investors, and specifically, whether credit investors know something that equity investors do not, Citi examined whether credit or equity is leading the price action in the energy sector. It found that the credit and equity markets are responding to energy headlines at the same pace, in other words under the New Paranormal, both equity and credit investors have become equally dumb.

• Samaras Says He’d Join Alliance to Keep Greece in Euro (BBG)
• Tensions with Warren camp could loom over Clinton campaign (Reuters)
• Ackman Report on Herbalife in China Figures in Probe (WSJ)
• Al Shabaab storms Kenyan university, 14 reported killed (Reuters)
• Iraq’s Four-Mile Line of Supertankers Fuels Shipping-Rates Surge (BBG)
• Menendez's fate could sharpen Republicans' edge in Senate (Reuters)
• IRS Chief Chides Ted Cruz Over 'Abolish the IRS' Mantra (BBG)
• Yemen Houthi fighters backed by tanks reach central Aden (Reuters)

Barron’s should have published its gushing cover story on Jamie Dimon’s stewardship of JPMorgan today – as an April Fool’s joke.

According to Citigroup, the revenues from trading fixed income securities has been decreasing since the end of the global financial crisis, but this trend might very well be reverted soon as investors are desperately trying to protect their assets from erosion.

• Oil holds around $55 as Iran nuclear talks drag on (Reuters)
• Bob Diamond’s African Banking Venture Runs Into Problems (WSJ)
• Iran Nuclear Talks Resume With Lavrov Saying Deal at Hand (BBG)
• Wal-Mart Ratchets Up Pressure on Suppliers to Cut Prices (WSJ)
• Renegades of Junk: The Rise and Fall of the Drexel Empire (BBG)
• Explosion at Yemen factory kills at least 25: residents, medics (Reuters)
• Macerich Rejects Simon Property’s $16.8 Billion Takeover Bid (WSJ)
• Reckoning Arrives for Cash-Strapped Oil Firms Amid Bank Squeeze (BBG)

Having already proven that their institutions are above the law in the aftermath of the financial crisis, executives at the “Too Big to Fail and Jail” banks have decided it’s time to teach Senate Democrats a lesson. Not being content with trillions in taxpayer backed bailouts to protect and further consolidate virtually all wealth within their oligarch fiefdoms, these bankers are irate at the notion that a commoner would dare criticize their unassailable crony privilege. What Wall Street wants is one hundred Chucky Schumers in the Senate.

• Iran, powers push for nuclear deal as clock ticks toward deadline (Reuters)
• How DIY Bond Traders Displaced Wall Street’s Hot Shots (BBG)
• MillerCoors Caught in a Downdraft (WSJ)
• Saudi-led strikes again hit Yemen overnight (Reuters)
• Even With Free Money, Merkel Still Reluctant to Spend (BBG)
• Britain Uses Tax Breaks to Lure Digital-Game Developers (WSJ)
• China to Insure Deposits in Move Toward Scrapping Rate Curbs (BBG)
• As China Expands Its Navy, the U.S. Grows Wary (WSJ)

• Google's new CFO to make $70 million (WSJ)
• Senate passes Republican budget with deep safety net cuts (Reuters)
• With Yemen strikes, Saudis show growing independence from U.S. (Reuters)
• Banks Slash Dividends as Loans Sour From Beijing To Pearl River (BBG)
• North American Railroads Caught by Speed of Crude-Oil Collapse (BBG)
• Japan’s Zero Inflation a Setback for Abenomics (WSJ)
• Cooperman Says U.S. Seeks Information About Omega Trades (BBG)

What would happen, for example, if a large number of holders decided to sell a high yield bond ETF all at once? In theory, the ETF can always be sold. Buyers may be scarce, but there should be some price at which one will materialize.  But we can’t get away from depending on the liquidity of the underlying high yield bonds. The ETF can’t be more liquid than the underlying, and we know the underlying can become highly illiquid.... no investment vehicle should promise more liquidity than is afforded by its underlying assets. Do these recent promises represent real improvements, or merely the seeds for subsequent disappointment?

Last December, traditionally permabullish energy trader Andy Hall shocked the world when he became the first casualty of the oil crash after Phibro, his 113 year old employer then owned by Occidental Petroleum after its sale by Citigroup, would liquidate in the US after it failed to buy a buyer. He wouldn't be the last. Overnight, Nexen Energy, a wholly owned subsidiary of China's CNOOC Ltd, reported it too would close its crude oil trading division following a round of job cuts announced last week, four market sources said on Monday.