Citigroup

Remember robosigning and the whole fraudclosure scandal? In a few days you can forget it. Because in America, the cost of contractual rights was just announced, and it is $25 billion: this is the amount of money that banks will pay to settle the fact that for years mortgages were issued and re-issued without proper title and liens on the underlying paper, courtesy of Linda Green et al. Why is this happening? Because staunch hold outs for equitable justice (at least until this point), the AGs of NY and California folded like cheap lawn chairs (we can't wait to find what corner office of Bank of America they end up in), but not before the one and only intervened. From the WSJ: "The Obama administration made a full-court press over the past four days to secure the support of key state attorneys general, including those from Florida, California and New York." Nothing like a little presidential persuasion to help one with overcoming one's conscience. Because in America the push to abrogate the very foundation of contractual agreements comes from the very top. But wait, there's more - just to wash its hands of the guilt associated with this settlement which shows once and for all that the Democratic administration panders as much if not more to the banking syndicate as any republican administration, as it announces one settlement with one hand, with the other the US will sue banks over the mortgage reps and warranties issue covered extensively here, in the most glaringly obtuse way to distract that it is gifting trillions worth of contingent liabilities right back to the banks, not to mention discarding the whole concept of justice. From the WSJ: "Federal securities regulators plan to warn several major banks that they intend to sue them over mortgage-related actions linked to the financial crisis, according to people familiar with the matter. The move would mark a stepped-up regulatory effort to hold Wall Street accountable for its sale of bonds linked to subprime mortgages in 2007 and 2008. At issue is whether the banks misrepresented the poor quality of loan pools they bundled and sold to investors, the people said." Wait, let us guess -that particular lawsuit will end up in a... settlement? Ding ding ding. We have a winner. All today's news succeed in doing is finally wrapping up any and all legal loose ends, so that banks can finally wrap all outstanding litigation overhangs at pennies on the dollar. And if at the end of the day, they find themselves cash strapped, why the US will simply loan them more cash of course.

• Greek Premier to Seek Bailout Consensus Amid Political Quarrels (Bloomberg)
• Merkel makes case for painful reform (FT)
• Bernanke Cites Risks to Progress of Recovery (WSJ)
• Proposed settlement with banks over foreclosure practices dealt a setback (WaPo)
• Merkel Approval in Germany Climbs to Highest Level Since 2009 Re-Election (Bloomberg)
• Francois Hollande will spark next euro crisis (MarketWatch)
• China’s Central Bank Pledges Support for Housing Market (Bloomberg)
• Italy Pushes for Europe Growth Policy (Bloomberg)
• Santorum bounces back in Republican race (FT)
• China 'Big Four' Banks Issued CNY320 Billion New Yuan Loans In Jan (WSJ)
• Gasoline and diesel prices raised (China Daily)

Equity and credit markets eked out small gains on the day as Treasuries limped a few bps lower in yield (with 30Y the notable underperformer) and the EUR lost some ground to the USD. ES (the e-mini S&P futures contract) saw its lowest volume of the year today at 1.35mm contracts (30% below its 50DMA) as NYSE volumes -10% from yesterday but average for the month. Another small range day in almost every market aside from commodities which saw significant divergence with Silver (best today) and Gold surging (up around 1.15% on the week) while Oil and Copper dived (down 2.6-3% or so on the week) with the former managing to scramble back above $96 into the close. ES and the broad risk proxy CONTEXT maintained their very high correlation as Oil and 2s10s30s compression dragged on ES but AUDJPY and TSYs post-Europe inching higher in yields helped ES. HYG underperformed all day (often a canary but we have killed so many canaries recently). Energy names outperformed on the day (as Brent and WTI diverged notably) but financials did well with the majors now back up to the late October (Greek PSI deal) highs. All-in-all, eerily quiet ahead of NFP but it feels like something is stirring under the covers as European exuberance didn't carry through over here (except in ZNGA and FFN!).

Solyndra, Ener1, and now Kaufman Bros - The current economy may not be very good at creating jobs, even minority-focused ones, but its track record in inverse job creation is rapidly becoming second to none. Bloomberg reports that "Kaufman Bros. LP, the minority-owned investment bank that helped unwind U.S. stakes in bailed-out financial companies, ceased operations as of yesterday, according to a notice posted on its website. Chief Executive Officer Benny Lorenzo told employees that New York-based Kaufman was closing immediately in a meeting yesterday after trading closed, according to two people with knowledge of the matter, who declined to be identified because they weren’t authorized to speak publicly. Neither Lorenzo nor Chief Financial Officer Gerard Durkin returned messages left on their office and mobile phones yesterday and today." More amusing is the following description: "The company, which also has offices in San Francisco, said it was sought out by institutional investors, hedge funds and government agencies to help meet diversity goals." No comment. The closure notice can be found on the company's website. And so another bank bites the dust. Many more coming.

• Euro-Region Debt Sales Top $29B This Week (Bloomberg)
• Greek Fury at Plan for EU Budget Control (FT)
• Greek "football players too poor to play", leagues running out of money, may file for bankruptcy (Spiegel)
• After insider trading scandal, Einhorn wins the battle: St. Joe Pares Back Its Florida Vision (WSJ)
• China Signals Limited Loosening as PBOC Bucks Forecast (Bloomberg)
• China's Wen: Govt Debt Risk "Controllable", Sets Reforms (Reuters)
• IMF Reviews China Currency's Value (WSJ)
• Watching, watching, watching: Japan PM Noda: To Respond To FX Moves "Appropriately" (WSJ)
• Cameron to Nod Through EU Treaty (FT)
• Gingrich Backer Sheldon Adelson Faces Questions About Chinese Business Affairs (Observer)

On Friday the FDIC reminded us that the banking crisis continues, closing and selling several institutions in arranged transactions.   This may seem gloomy news, but please note that the shareholders of the acquiring institutions just made a lot of money.

All you need to read.

• BOJ Should Be Allowed $643 Billion Fund to Buy Foreign Bonds, Iwata Says (Bloomberg)
• Banks Hoarding ECB Cash May Double Company Defaults (Bloomberg)
• China Police Open Fire on Tibetans as Protests Spread (Bloomberg)
• Sarkozy Presidential Rival Hollande Would Lower Retirement Age, Lift Taxes (Bloomberg)
• IMF takes tougher stance over Greek debt (FT)
• Iran threatens to act first on EU embargo (FT)
• PM says ‘no complacency’ on economy (FT)
• George Soros: How to pull Italy and Spain back from the edge (FT)
• Japan's NEC to slash 10,000 jobs (Reuters)
• Obama Planning Corporate Tax Overhaul (Bloomberg)

For a new investor in gold and silver, here is the most lucid piece of advice I can offer. Identifying severe undervaluation points in gold and silver, buying gold and silver assets during these times, and not worrying about interim short-term volatility, even if the immediate volatility is downward, is much more likely to impact your accumulation of wealth in a positive manner than trying to perfectly time market tops and bottoms in the highly manipulated gold and silver game.

In all, the President's speech was reminiscent of George Clooney’s in Ides of March. We’ve heard it all before, maybe with slightly different words: America lost 4 million jobs before I got here, and another 4 million before our policies went into effect, but in the last 12 months, we added 3 million job. We must reduce tax loopholes, and provide tax incentives to businesses that hire in America. We must reform taxes for the wealthy (though he signed an extension of Bush’s tax cuts.) We must train people for an apparent abundance of expert jobs. We need more clean energy initiatives.  We created regulations (big sigh of relief he didn’t use the word ‘sweeping’) to avoid fraudulent financial practices. We will help homeowners. Wall Street must ‘make up a trust deficit.”   Like Jamie Dimon cares. In other words, Obama gave Wall Street a pass, while waxing populace. Don’t get me wrong. I expected nothing different. I will continue to expect nothing different, when he gets a second term, given the lame field of contenders all around.

Yesterday, Reuters' blogger Felix Salmon in a well-written if somewhat verbose essay, makes the argument that "Greece has the upper hand" in its ongoing negotiations with the ad hoc and official group of creditors. It would be a great analysis if it wasn't for one minor detail. It is wrong. And while that in itself is hardly newsworthy, the fact that, as usual, its conclusion is built upon others' primary research and analysis, including that of the Wall Street Journal, merely reinforces the fact that there is little understanding in the mainstream media of what is actually going on behind the scenes in the Greek negotiations, and thus a comprehension of how prepack (for now) bankruptcy processes operate. Furthermore, since the Greek "case study" will have dramatic implications for not only other instances of sovereign default, many of which are already lining up especially in Europe, but for the sovereign bond market in general, this may be a good time to explain why not only does Greece not have the upper hand, but why an adverse outcome from the 11th hour discussions between the IIF, the ad hoc creditors, Greece, and the Troika, would have monumental consequences for the entire bond market in general.

One big happy family ...

Headlines for now but the inevitable has become well 'evitable' as EK goes BK...headlines via Bloomberg:

• *KODAK FILES FOR BANKRUPTCY IN NEW YORK
• *EASTMAN KODAK SECURES $950M IN DEBTOR-IN-POSSESSION FINANCING
• *KODAK TO MONETIZE NON-STRATEGIC INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY    :EK US
• *EASTMAN KODAK SAYS NON-U.S. UNITS NOT INCLUDED IN U.S. FILING
• *KODAK SAYS CHAPTER 11 A `NECESSARY STEP', `RIGHT THING TO DO'
• *KODAK EXPECTS TO PAY EMPLOYEE WAGES-BENEFITS             :EK US

We guess the 128% stock rally from 1/6 to 1/11 can be ignored now (and the Einhorn rumors)

• Here we go again: IMF Said to Seek $1 Trillion Resource-Boost Amid Euro Crisis (Bloomberg)
• China said to Tell banks to Restrict Lending as Local Officials Seek Funds (Bloomberg)
• EU to Take Legal Action Against Hungary (FT)
• Portugal Yields Fall in Auction of Short-Term Debt (Reuters)
• US Natural Gas Prices at 10-Year Low as Warm Weather Weakens Demand (Reuters)
• German Yield Falls in Auction of 2-Year Bonds (Reuters)
• World Bank Slashes Global GDP Forecasts, Outlook Grim (Reuters)
• Why the Super-Marios Need Help (Martin Wolf) (FT)
• Chinese Vice Premier Stresses Government Role in Improving People's Livelihoods (Xinhua)

Following last week's Easter egg by JPMorgan, the misses by financials continue, with Citi crapping the bed following a big miss in both top and bottom line after reporting $17.2 billion and $0.38 EPS on expectations of $18.5 billion and $0.52 per share. The biggest hit to the top line was the DVA adjustment courtesy of tightening CDS spreads, which while adding to top and bottom line in Q3, took out $1.9 billion in Q4 - of course like everything else it was also priced in. And while we are confident the full earnings presentation will be a labyrinth of loss covering, the first thing to realize is that absent a $1.5 billion in loan loss reserve releases, the bank would have reported negative net income, which was $1.364 billion pretax. Yet there is no way to explain the absolute bloodbath in the Securities and Banking group, which saw revenues implode by 53% from $6.7 billion to $3.2 billion Y/Y, and down 10% Q/Q. Notably, Lending revenues down 84% from $1 billion to $164 million. RIP Carry Trade.