• Steve H. Hanke
    02/11/2016 - 16:08
    The burgeoning literature contains a great deal of hype, which validates the 95% Rule: 95% of what is written about economics and finance is either wrong or irrelevant.

Citigroup

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Frontrunning: January 22





  • Stocks, oil soar as Draghi the dove tames global bears (Reuters)
  • Massive snowstorm poised to wallop U.S. East Coast (Reuters)
  • Oil Rises in Biggest Rally Since August Amid Volatility Surge (BBG)
  • Nikkei spikes more than 900 points after rebounds overseas (Japan Times)
  • China's Working-Age Population Sees Biggest-Ever Decline  (WSJ)
  • Oil Is `Trade of the Year' for Citigroup After Iran Export Surge (BBG)
  • U.S. Payment of $1.7 Billion to Iran Raises Questions of Ransom (WSJ)
 
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What The Big Banks Say About Their Energy Exposure





One thing is clear: banks are not only not telling the full story, but the story they are telling is compromised. Still one has to start somewhere with whatever data is publicly available, so courtesy of Reuters, here is a summary of what the big U.S. banks who have reported Q4 earnings so far, say about their energy exposure.

 
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A Glimpse Of Things To Come: Bankrupt Shale Producers "Can't Give Their Assets Away"





The end of America’s oil “miracle” is coming and there’s nothing Wall Street can do to stop it. At this point in the game, no one is going to finance the oil patch's cash flow deficits and the fundamentals in the oil market are laughably bad. As Bloomberg reports, Wall Street is about to have a serious bout of “indigestion” because recent auctions suggest that “some bankrupt oil and gas drillers can’t give their assets away.”

 
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Equity Futures Rise After Oil Rebounds From 12 Year Lows; US Markets Closed





With the US closed today for Martin Luther King Holiday, global risk tone has once again been set entirely by oil, which opened sharply lower at fresh 12 year lows on fears of an Iran oil glut, but has steadily rebounded on the latest OPEC comments, and at last check both WTI and Brent were unchanged trading in the low $29's on muted volume. With Asian markets mixed, European shares swung between gains and losses, while the yen weakened as China stepped up efforts to curb foreign speculation against its currency. Crude oil rose from a 12-year low after the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries forecast a decline in supplies from rival producers.

 
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Global Risk Off: China Reenters Bear Market, Oil Tumbles Under $30; Global Stocks, US Futures Gutted





Yesterday, when looking at the market's "Bullard 2.0" moment, which in many ways was a carbon copy of the market's response to Bullard's "QE4" comments from October 17, 2014 until just a few minutes before the market close when suddenly selling pressure appeared, we said that either the S&P would soar - as it did in 2014 - hitting all time highs just a few months later, or the "Fed is now shooting VWAP blanks." Judging by what has happened since, in what may come as a very unpleasant surprise to the "the market is very oversold" bulls, it appears to have been the latter.

 
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Global Stocks Rebound As Fears Of Chinese Hard-Landing Pushed Back On Strong Trade Data





After two months of sharp currency devaluation, the market was carefully watching last night's China trade data to see if the Yuan debasement had led to a positive trade outcome to the world's second largest economy, and as reported last night, it was not disappointed when China reported a December trade surplus of $60.09 billion from $54.1 billion in November, as a result of exports beating expectations and rising 2.3%, the first increase since June, while imports declined by just 4%, the smallest drop since 2014 despite China importing a record amount of oil, or 33.2 million tons, in December.

 
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The Demise Of Dollar Hegemony: Russia Breaks Wall St's Oil-Price Monopoly





Russia has just taken significant steps that will break the present Wall Street oil price monopoly, at least for a huge part of the world oil market. The move is part of a longer-term strategy of decoupling Russia’s economy and especially its very significant export of oil, from the US dollar, today the Achilles Heel of the Russian economy.

 
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Open Letter to the Banks





Jamie Dimon, JP Morgan Chase
Brian T. Moynihan, Bank of America
Michael Corbat, Citigroup

I am writing to you to warn you about the disruption that is about to occur in banking.

 
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10 Year Could Drop Below 2% Within Days, Citi Predicts





The risk of a fracture in risk markets when lower liquidity meets forced selling, is high in our view. Should this weakening of spread sectors in fixed income continue, we will see a further rally in Treasuries – back in Aug/ Sep, 10y USTs broke below 2%, and there is no reason we can’t get there later this month.

 
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Chinese Stocks Plunge, Asia At 4 Year Lows But PBOC Currency Intervention Pushes US Futures Higher





Initially both European stocks and US equity futures were grateful that China has picked at least one asset class to prop up overnight, and rose in an extremely illiquid market with European shares gaining for first time in 4 days, as S&P futures rise even as the MSCI Asia Pacific ex-Japan index just fell to the lowest level in more than 4 years. However, as of moments ago the Stoxx 600 had faded all its earlier gains and was trading near the flatline, as an algo takes out all stops on the top and bottom once more, and looks set to move on to US futures shortly.

 
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These Are The 10 Companies Most Hated By Wall Street





While the list of "most hated buyside" stocks is at least actionable, not even we are sure what to do with the list of companies that are most hated by the sellside, besides perhaps revealing what it is.  So for all those wondering, here courtesy of Factset, is the list of 10 S&P500 companies with the highest percentage of Sell ratings.

 
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Gold, Bitcoin Soar After China Liquidates Most Reserves On Record To Defend Currency





As the PBOC revealed overnight, China’s foreign-exchange reserves plunged much more than forecast in December, capping the first-ever annual decline (of $513 billion) as authorities sought to prop up a weakening yuan. More importantly, the $108 billion decline from $3.438 trillion to $3.330 trillion - far greater than the $20 billion estimated - was the largest on record, and shows that while on the surface the Yuan was stable, behind the scenes the PBOC was furiously dumping securities to prevent an all out currency rout as outflows hit a record.

 
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The Carnage Returns: Stocks Tumble After Sharp Chinese Devaluation; Brent At 2004 Lows; Gold Surges





Before we go into details of the overnight carnage, this is where we stand currently: S&P futures now down 33 points or 1.63% while 2Y Treasury rallies pushing its yield back below 1% as EU stocks extend their drop after China weakened its currency, North Korea says it tested a hydrogen bomb; Brent crude falls to lowest level since 2004.

 
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