Citigroup

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Futures Storm Into The Green, 20 Points Off The Lows; NY Fed's Chicago Office Kept Busy All Night





With futures slamming the lows at their open yesterday evening, touching levels not seen since May, and with the EuroStoxx 50 officialy entering correction just hours ago, down 10% from the June highs, many were wondering if the NY Fed's Chicago Trading Desk, aka Overnight Ramp Capital LLC, would be put in damage control duty and send futures right back to unchanged (because with new Ebola patient alerts springing up everywhere from Boston to Los Angeles, the pandemic is clearly contained). The answer, with a whopping 20 point levitation on no volume, and futures which are pointing now well into the green (not to mention the Eurostoxx rebounding off the lows and now green too), is a resounding yes (thank the  AUDJPY, which is over 100 pips off the overnight lows and back over 94).

 
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The Calm Before The Storm In The Gold Market





Physical gold is being accumulated and used in exchanges but very discretely as of now. The geopolitical and economic environment in the last few months was in my view the calm before the storm. Both the economic and political environments are uncertain and will surprise the complacent markets.

 
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Frontrunning: October 10





  • It wasn't Obama this time: Pakistani teen, Indian activist win Nobel Peace Prize (Reuters)
  • Surging VIX Shakes Bulls as S&P 500 Charts Go Haywire (BBG)
  • Global shares hit six-month low as growth worries mount (Reuters)
  • Police, protesters clash in St. Louis ahead of weekend of rallies (Reuters)
  • We're Sitting on 10 Billion Barrels of Oil! OK, Two (BBG)
  • Spain seeks answers as seven more enter Ebola isolation (Reuters)
  • Iran will sell its oil to Asia in November at the biggest discount (BBG)
  • Redefining honeypot: U.S. DEA 'most interested' in U.S. investors in Canadian marijuana firms (Reuters)
  • UKIP Wins First Commons District With Conservative Defector (BBG)
  • Fake Ebola Patients Help Hospitals Prepare for Next Case (BBG)
 
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Frontrunning: October 9





  • Five U.S. airports to screen for fever (Reuters)
  • Danger, central banks trading with each other: Bipolar U.S. Stocks See Biggest Mood Swing in Three Years  (BBG)
  • Draghi Policies Blunted in Berlin as German Protests Grow (BBG)
  • White policeman kills black teen in St Louis, triggering fresh protests (Reuters)
  • Au Revoir to France’s Welfare Model as Socialists Cut Spending (BBG)
  • Here comes Roberto Cavalski (Reuters)
  • There are 49 U.S. venture-capital-backed companies with a valuation of $1 billion or more—the highest number on record (WSJ)
  • Pressure mounts on Hong Kong leader over payout amid crisis (Reuters)
 
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"Clueless", Reaccomodating Fed Spurs Epidemic Of Record Low Yields Around The Globe





  • IRELAND SELLS 10-YEAR BONDS AT RECORD-LOW YIELD OF 1.63%
  • GERMAN 10-YEAR BUNDS RISE; YIELD FALLS 2 BASIS POINTS TO 0.88%
  • DUTCH 10-YEAR GOVERNMENT BOND YIELD DROPS TO RECORD-LOW 1.021%
  • PORTUGUESE 10-YEAR BOND YIELD DROPS TO RECORD-LOW 2.942%
  • FRENCH 10-YEAR GOVERNMENT BOND YIELDS DROP TO RECORD-LOW 1.214%
  • U.S. 10-YEAR NOTE YIELD DROPS TO 2.296%, LOWEST SINCE JUNE 2013
  • SPANISH 10-YEAR BOND YIELD DROPS TO RECORD-LOW 2.038%
  • FINNISH 10-YEAR YIELD DROPS TO 1% FOR FIRST TIME ON RECORD
 
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Frontrunning: October 8





  • Turkey says Syria town about to fall as Islamic State advances (Reuters)
  • Only now? Growth worries grip stocks, oil (Reuters)
  • Hong Kong Protest Leaders ‘Furious’ at Agenda for Talks (BBG)
  • Earthquake Damages Thousands of Homes in Southern China (BBG)
  • Keystone Be Darned: Canada Finds Oil Route Around Obama (BBG)
  • Where Is North Korea's 31-Year-Old Leader? (BusinessWeek)
  • Australia to Revise Employment Data (WSJ)
  • Americans Living Longer as Fewer Die From Heart Disease, Cancer (BBG)
  • A 401(k) Conundrum: Can You Make Cash Pile Last for Life?  (BBG)
  • China Services Sector Slows in September (WSJ)
 
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Futures Fail To Rebound Despite Another Overnight Slam Of Global Bad News





And it all started off so promisingly, when after the biggest selloff in US stocks in two months, the BOJ and its preferred banks once again sold 6J (i.e., bought USDJPY) in the morning Japan session (while collecting CME liquidity rebates of course), sending the pair from below 108 to half the way to 109, and naturally taking global futures higher while pushing yields lower when as ITC says a "large TY seller knocked USTs to lows during the session" - hmmm, wonder who the large seller was. And then... the "rebound euphoria" fizzled a la Sodastream, sending the Nikkei sliding 1.2%, and US equity futures back to unchanged with the bond surge returning and sending German Bunds to new all time highs once again, while the Dax briefly broke below under 9000 before stabilizing at the key support level. It is unclear what caused the failure in central bank euphoria, although some suggest that the latest bevy of disappointing economic news wasn't quite bad enough.

 
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Frontrunning: October 7





  • Liberian Rubber Farm Becomes Sanctuary Against Ebola (WSJ)
  • The World’s Most Powerful Central Banker: Janet Who? (BBG)
  • Islamic State moves into south west of Syrian Kurdish town (Reuters)
  • Waldorf to Be Biggest Chinese Property Purchase in U.S. (BBG)
  • Spain Seeks People in Contact With Ebola-Infected Nurse (BBG)
  • Hong Kong protests at crossroads as traffic, frustration pile up (Reuters)
  • Immigration: Grim Caseload at the Border (WSJ)
  • China Cuts Thousands of ‘Phantom’ Workers From State Payroll (BBG)
  • U.S., U.K. Regulators Push to Settle Deutsche Bank Libor Case This Year (WSJ)
  • Wall Street Moles Go to NY’s Top Cop, Spurning SEC Cash (BBG)
  • Pimco's outflow headaches only just beginning (Reuters)
  • Japan Lawmakers Flag Need for Exit Strategy as Yen Falls (BBG)
 
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The September Jobs Report Looms: What The Major Banks Expect





  • Citigroup 175K
  • HSBC 200K
  • Deutsche Bank 200K
  • JP Morgan 225K
  • Morgan Stanley 230K
  • Goldman Sachs 230K
  • BofAML 235K
  • UBS 250K
 
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Frontrunning: October 2





  • As we warned in May 2013... Gross Exposes $42 Trillion Bond Market’s Key Flaw in Exit (BBG).... hint: no liquidity
  • WTI Crude Slips Below $90 for First Time in 17 Months (BBG)
  • Traders Thank Fed for Once-in-Decade Surge in Profit (BBG)
  • Islamic State committing 'staggering' crimes in Iraq: U.N. report (Reuters)
  • Philippine Islamist militants threaten to behead German on October 17 (Reuters)
  • Draghi’s Buying Spree for the ECB Might Start Modestly (BBG)
  • Russian Officials Say No Plans for Capital Controls (WSJ)
  • Indians Join the Wave of Investors in Condos and Homes in the U.S. (NYT)
  • Leader of Mexican drugs cartel captured (FT)
  • Dallas Ebola patient vomited outside apartment on way to hospital (Reuters)
 
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Did The Winter War Just Begin? Russian Gas Supplies To Europe Plunge 15%, Ukraine Transit Slashed 54%





Just a week ago, the Russian energy minister made the first public 'threat' of gas supply "throttling" disruptions to Europe but judging by the data that has just been released, it appears the 'throttling' has begun. Bloomberg reports that Russian gas supplies to Europe fell 15% year-over-year in Q3 - the most in over two years - as natural gas transit through Ukraine plunged 54% year-over-year. In 2013, Gazprom sent 60% of its supply via Ukraine pipelines, in August that dropped to 39%, and in September only 34%. Of course, Europe remains confident its storage efforts will buffer any "Winter War" disruptions, as we noted here, but as Citi warned previously, "if colder weather arrives, storage levels will be drained," and then there is the Spring (and German industry needs).

 
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Frontrunning: September 29





  • This is why the locals are furious at the US: U.S-led raids hit grain silos in Syria, kill workers (Reuters) explaining this
  • Billions Fly Out the Door at Pimco: About $10 Billion Is Withdrawn After Departure of Gross (WSJ)
  • Pimco’s Ivascyn Takes on Gross With Unconstrained Fund (BBG)
  • Revealed - the Troika threats to bankrupt Ireland (The Independent)
  • Private Bad Debt Build-Up Casts Shadow on Greek Rebound (BBG)
  • Fed Questions Bank Maneuver to Reduce Hedge Funds' Dividend Taxes (WSJ)
  • Yuan-Euro Direct Trading Begins Tomorrow as China Promotes Usage (BBG)
  • Geneva Report warns record debt and slow growth point to crisis (FT)
  • Greenberg Team to Grill Bernanke, Geithner on AIG Bailout (BBG)... sadly only metaphorically
 
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Frontrunning: September 26





  • Mystery Man Who Moves Japanese Markets Made More Than 1 Million Trades  (BBG)
  • Draghi’s Trillion-Euro Pump Finds Blockage in Spain: Euro Credit (BBG)
  • Apple plays defense on iPhone 6 bending, software concerns (Reuters)
  • U.S. to Shield Military From High-Interest Debt (WSJ)
  • U.S. Outgunned by Extremists on Social Media Battlefield (BBG)
  • Yen Weakens on Pension Fund Reform; Aussie Drops to 7-Month Low (BBG)
  • Secretive Russian oil giant has no fear of sanctions (Reuters)
  • Ride-Sharing Services Face Legal Threat From San Francisco, Los Angeles (WSJ)
  • Putin’s Sell-Treasuries-for-BRICS Bonds Plan Has Limits (BBG)
 
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No More Foreplay: Russia Threatens European Gas Supply Disruptions





It appears Vladimir Putin is willing to hit'em while they're down. Early European equity weakness (and safe-haven flows) on asset-freeze threats have accelerated as Bloomberg reports, Russian energy minister Alexander Novak threatens gas supply disruptions if the EU continues to re-export Russian gas to Ukraine. 3Y German bond yields have plunged to -4.1bps, a record low close and European stocks are closing on their lows of the day.

 
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