Citigroup

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How To "Measure" Risk





While investor behavior hasn't sunk to the depths seen just before the crisis, Oaktree Capital's Howard marks warns, in many ways it has entered the zone of imprudence. "Today I feel it's important to pay more attention to loss prevention than to the pursuit of gain... Although I have no idea what could make the day of reckoning come sooner rather than later, I don’t think it’s too early to take today’s carefree market conditions into consideration. What I do know is that those conditions are creating a degree of risk for which there is no commensurate risk premium."

 
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DoJ To Tax Wall Street (Again) In MBS Probe





Emboldened by its recent “unprecedented” prosecutorial success, the DoJ will now pursue a fresh round of MBS-related settlements with banks that knowingly packaged and sold shoddy CDOs. Banks expected to settle in coming months include Barclays PLC, Credit Suisse Group AG, Deutsche Bank AG, HSBC Holdings PLC, Royal Bank of Scotland Group PLC,UBS AG and Wells Fargo & Co.

 
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This Is The Fed's "Second Biggest Nightmare" According To Citigroup





Two weeks ago, Citigroup presented what it thinks is the biggest nightmare for the Fed: it said that the FOMC’s "biggest worry is not lift off and its market and economic implications, but what happens if the economic recovery dies of old age without the Fed having done anything to tighten." And, according to Citi's FX strategists, "if this were to occur, the USD would probably fall faster than it rose from July-March." A precursor to loss of faith in the Dollar's reserve currency status perhaps. Today, Citi's Steven Englander lays out what is the Fed's second biggest nightmare: a rebound which is so fast, the Fed's entire carefully planned renormalization schedule collapses.

 
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What FIFA Can Teach Us About Overpriced (And Overhyped) Stocks





Buildings make a statement about their owners. FIFA-Hauptquartier seems to be saying: our owners have a boatload of cash... and in a world where heavily-manipulated stock markets are constantly achieving all-time highs, the message from the 'market' is just as full of it as Blatter.

 
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How Jamie Dimon Became A Billionaire





Two years ago, bank analyst Mike Mayo asked JPM chief Jamie Dimon a simple question: why should affluent customers not pick UBS over JPM due to a mismatch in capital ratios, to which Dimon's response was even simpler: "that's why I'm richer than you." To which we then added: "No logic, no rationale: all about the bottom line, which to Jamie at least is all that matters. The bottom line was indeed all, because as Bloomberg calculated overnight, over the past several years, Jamie Dimon quietly became not just "richer than you", but "much" richer: his net worth is now well over $1 billion!

 
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Frontrunning: June 3





  • Obama signs bill reforming surveillance program (Reuters)
  • Tsipras to meet Juncker in Brussels for talks on agreement (AFP)
  • Spot the irony: OECD cuts global growth forecast, says recovery taking hold (Reuters)
  • The Secret Money Behind Vladimir Putin's War Machine (BBG)
  • Companies' Borrowing Spree Darkens Stock Market Future (BBG)
  • How OPEC Hurt Big Oil (WSJ)
  • What's OPEC Going to Do With Iran's Million Barrels a Day? (BBG)
  • Draghi’s Europe Looks Healthiest for Years Despite Greece (BBG)
  • Bund yields inch higher, euro holds ahead of ECB (Reuters)
 
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"The Fed Has Been Horribly Wrong" Deutsche Bank Admits, Dares To Ask If Yellen Is Planning A Housing Market Crash





When the "very serious people" start to admit that the entire house of cards was held together with nothing but bullshit and propaganda, it may be a time to panic...

 
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Frontrunning: June 1





  • Senate lets NSA spy program lapse, at least for now (Reuters)
  • Draghi Deflation Relief Means Little With Greek Threat Unsolved (BBG)
  • Tepid factory data add to Asian gloom (FT)
  • Citigroup Likely to Close Banamex USA (WSJ)
  • Frugality of High Earners in U.S. Shows Long Shadow of Recession (BBG)
  • Greece’s Tsipras Warns Bell May Toll for Europe (BBG)
  • Carnegie Mellon Reels After Uber Lures Away Researchers (WSJ)
  • Romário leads drive for Brazilian probe into Fifa (FT)
  • Faster than China? India's road, rail drive could lay doubts to rest (Reuters)
 
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"They Don't Want To Get Burned Again" - Oil ETF Sees Biggest Outflows In 6 Years





"The oil rebound has run out of gas and now you are seeing nervous investors with itchy trigger fingers bailing out of USO," notes Bloomberg, as the biggest US ETF that tracks oil is heading for the largest two-month outflow in six years, raising concern that crude’s 30% rally may stall. As BNP points out, "we do not think that the bulls have enough supporting fundamental factors to make a case for a higher oil price," and judging by the mass exodus from USO, as Bloomberg concludes, knife-catching 'investors' "don’t want to get burned by another drop in oil."

 
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Frontrunning: May 28





  • No change in Greek debt talks after another day of spin (Reuters)
  • G-7 Weighs In on Greece as Government Told to Be Serious (BBG)
  • FIFA Faces Mounting Pressure From Sponsors as Visa Threatens to End Deal (WSJ)
  • U.S. hopes Chinese island-building will spur Asian response (Reuters)
  • Japan Inc.’s $104 Billion Investor Payout Set to Surge (BBG)
  • Russia masses heavy firepower on border with Ukraine (Reuters)
  • China Says Its Most-Wanted Fugitive Is in U.S. Custody (BBG)
 
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Billionaire Hedge Fund Manager Paul Singer Reveals The "Bigger Short"





"Today, six and a half years after the collapse of Lehman, there is a Bigger Short cooking. That Bigger Short is long-term claims on paper money, i.e., bonds."

 
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Buy This Company Quickly For $10 Million Before It IPOs On The Shenzhen Exchange





Overnight saw yet another dip at the open that was ripped by the close in Chinese markets as Year-to-Date gains for China's Shenzhen Composite now top 105%. With IPOs rising 500% with no down days, Charles Hugh-Smith unleashes his satirical sword to 'explain' just how idiotic this situation has become, and (as we detailed here) it will get worse...

 
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Frontrunning: May 27





  • FIFA Raided by Swiss Authorities in 2018, 2022 World Cup Probe (BBG)
  • Companies Send More Cash Back to Shareholders (WSJ)
  • Time Warner Cable Deal Stirs Debt Concerns (WSJ)
  • Qatar $200 Billion World Cup Under More Scrutiny Amid FIFA Probe (BBG)
  • Philippine, Vietnamese troops play soccer and sing on disputed island (Reuters)
  • The G-7's Problem: Can the World Deal With a Greek Default? (BBG)
  • SocGen Deal for Bache Illustrates Commodity-Trading Woe (WSJ)
  • China’s Naval Abilities Test Asia’s Insecurities (WSJ)
 
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The Coming Capital Controls Are Designed To Protect The Banks From You





If governments have proven anything to us over the last seven years, it is that they will do anything to keep the banks from going down.  If just 10% of people hit their breaking points and withdrew their money in cash - there wouldn’t be enough cash in the system to support this demand. And the banks would subsequently collapse. When a government is bankrupt, the central bank is nearly insolvent, the banking system is illiquid, and an entire population suffers from interest rates that are either negative or below the rate of inflation, capital controls are a foregone conclusion. In fact, we expect the next round of capital controls will be designed to protect the banks... from you.

 
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Frontrunning: May 26





  • Developed-Country Growth Slows, OECD Says (WSJ)
  • Charter Agrees to Buy Time Warner Cable for About $55 Billion (BBG)
  • Dollar hits one-month high as periphery woes weigh on Europe (Reuters)
  • IMF Says Yuan No Longer Undervalued Amid Reserve-Status Push (BBG)
  • Hanergy secured $200m loan ahead of solar group stock tumble (FT)
  • Congressional Inaction Threatens NSA Spy Program (WSJ)
  • Germany sees progress on Greece, EU officials to confer on Thursday (Reuters)
  • Hayes ‘motivated by greed’, prosecutor says in Libor case (FT)
  • Whistleblowers Find SEC Rewards Slow and Scarce (WSJ)
 
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