Citigroup

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Marissa Mayer's Value "Added": Yahoo Is Now Worth A Negative $13 Billion





at the beginning of the year Meyer's severance was worth $158 million. It has since declined to $60 million. During the same time the enterprise value of Yahoo's core operations, as valued by the market, has declined from negative $1 billion to negative $13 billion. Sounds like a fair trade.

 
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Frontrunning: December 9





  • Gloomy mood prevails despite calmer commodities (Reuters)
  • A Strong Dollar Hurts China More Than the U.S. (BBG)
  • China Sets Yuan at Four-Year Low in ‘Stress Test’ (WSJ)
  • Dow Chemical and DuPont Are in Advanced Talks to Merge (WSJ)
  • Yahoo scraps plan to spin off Alibaba stake (Reuters)
 
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11 "Alarm Bells" That Show The Global Economic Crisis Is Getting Deeper





But just like in 2008, the “experts” at the Federal Reserve are assuring all of us that everything is going to be just fine.  This is the exact same kind of mistake that the Federal Reserve made back in the late 1930s.  They thought that the U.S. economy was finally recovering, and so interest rates were raised.  That turned out to be a tragic mistake.

 
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Wall Street Unleashes Echo Of Groans After ECB "Disappointment"





One recurring word prevails in every single Wall Street reaction to Mario Draghi's announcement today: "disappointment"... the same disappointment we warned about yesterday, and which we said could push the EURUSD to 1.09 today, just as happened an hour earlier.

 
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European Stocks, US Futures Surge On Last Minute Hopes Of "Extraordinary Policy Easing" By Mario Draghi





Yesterday's market swoon which unwound all of Tuesday's gains on concerns about a hawkish Fed and fears about terrorism in the US, are now completely forgotten, and have been replaced with the latest daily round of pre-ECB euphoria, driven by hopes that Mario Draghi will announce even more dovish details to Europe's Q€ 2 than just a 10 bps rate cut and a boost to QE more than €10 billion, both of which have been already priced in.

 
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Frontrunning: December 2





  • Yellen, in back-to-back appearances, could close out era of zero rates (Reuters)
  • ECB stimulus hopes keep Europe stocks at three-month high (Reuters)
  • ECB to Test the Limits of Its Bond-Buying Program (WSJ)
  • Watch for U.S. recession, zero interest rates in China next year, Citi says (Reuters)
  • Euro’s Loss Being Yen’s Gain May Be Headache for BOJ (BBG)
  • Yahoo Board to Weigh Sale of Internet Business (WSJ)
  • Islamic State Prevents Civilians From Fleeing Iraqi City of Ramadi (WSJ)
 
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Global Stocks Start Off December With A Bang, US Equity Futures Rebound; Yuan Drops





There was something for everyone in last night's much anticipated Chinese PMI data, with the official number sliding to the lowest in over 3 years, suggesting the PBOC will need to do more stimulus and is thus bullish, while the unoffocial Caixin print rising to the highest since June, suggesting whatever the PBOC is doing is working, and is also bullish. Not unexpectedly, global stocks decided to take the bullish way out, and have risen across the globe led by Asia, where stocks rose as much as 1.8%, Europe also green and US equity futures up 10 points as of this writing.

 
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Can The Oil Industry Really Handle This Much Debt?





With at least 83 percent of these companies' operating cash being spent on debt repayments - the highest on record - the renewed collapse in crude oil prices of the last month has renewed focus on the tidal wave of defaults that the credit market is increasingly pricing in (and stocks not).

 
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To Junk Bond Traders "It Almost Feels Like 2008"





Despite distressed-debt funds suffering their worst losses since 2008, mainstream apologists continue to largely ignore the carnage in the credit market (even though veteran bond managers have urged "it's not just energy, it's everything.") With the number of loan deals pricing below 80 (distressed) at cycle peaks, and "a less diverse group of investors holding a lot more bonds," price swings continue to be wild but as DB's Melentyev warns, initially "all of this looks random when there is no underlying news to support the big moves. But eventually a narrative emerges -- maybe we have turned the corner on the credit cycle."

 
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Global Stocks Slide, Futures Drop After Turkey Shoots Down Russian Warplane





It had been a relatively quiet session overnight when as reported previously, the geopolitical situation in the middle east changed dramatically in a moment, when NATO-member country Turkey downed a Russian fighter jet allegedly over Turkish territory even though the plane crashed in Syria, and whose pilots may have been captured by local rebel forces. The news promptly slammed Turkish assets and FX, sending the Lira tumbling, pushing lower European stocks and US equity futures while sending 2 Year German Bunds to record negative yields.

 
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Economists' Models Are Losing Their Grasp On The Real State Of The Economy





Economists have been consistently over-estimating the strength of the economy this year. The magnitude of their misses is not particularly worrisome but volatility measures and the recent record number of consecutive negative readings are suggesting that economists’ models are losing their grasp on the state of the economy.

 
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In Duel With Valeant, Ackman; Is Judge David Carter The "New Jed Rakoff?"





In his rejection of an SEC settlement with Citigroup, Judge Jed Rakoff vowed to "see that the truth emerges." After presiding over the most high-profile insider trading cases since the crisis -- including Raj Rajaratnam and Rajit Gupta -- Judge Rakoff has come to symbolize the mantra that "nobody is above the law." In determining that Valeant and hedge fund manager Bill Ackman must face insider trading charges for their failed takeover of Allergan, U.S. District Judge David Carter may be the "new Rakoff."

 
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The Next Level of John Law Type Central Planning Madness





The cries for going totally crazy are growing louder... the lunatics are running the asylum. One shouldn’t underestimate what they are capable of. The only consolation is that the day will come when the monetary cranks will be discredited again (for the umpteenth time). Thereafter it will presumably take a few decades before these ideas will rear their head again (like an especially sturdy weed, the idea that inflationism can promote prosperity seems nigh ineradicable in the long term – it always rises from the ashes again). The bad news is that many of us will probably still be around when the bill for these idiocies will be presented.

 
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China Buys Another 14 Tons Of Gold In October As FX Reserves Unexpectedly Rebound





Today we got yet another confirmation that China's July announcement on its gold holdings merely broke the seal of accumulation when the PBOC reported that its total gold holdings as of October 31 had risen to a record $63.3 billion, up $2.1 billion from $61.2 billion at the end of September, and an increase of 14 tons based on the month-end LBMA gold fix price. This represents the fifth consecutive month in a row in which China has added to its gold.

 
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This Time Is The Same - And Worse!





The current stock market melt-up hardly qualifies as limp. Even the robo-machines and hyper-ventilating day traders apparently recognize that their job is to tag the May 2015 highs and then get out of the way. So when and as they complete their pointless mission, the question recurs as to why the posse of fools in the Eccles Building can’t see that they are inflating one hellacious financial bubble; and that when it blows it will deconstruct their entire 7-year project of make-pretend recovery.

 
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