Citigroup

Trumpflation Takes A Breather As Global Stocks Rise, Oil Jumps On Renewed OPEC "Deal Optimism"

With the Trumpflation euphoria easing back slightly overnight, leading to a modest paring in the USD index and US Treasury yields, Asian and European stocks rose, while US equity futures rebounded to just shy of new all time highs, as crude jumped on renewed optimism that OPEC will agree to cut output; metals rebounded from last week’s losses as yields dropped and the dollar halted its longest winning streak versus the euro.

Surge In Online Loan Defaults Sends Shockwaves Through The Industry

In a page taken right out of the CDO book of 2007, delinquencies and defaults on at least four different sets of bonds have reached the "triggers" points. Breaching those levels would force lenders or underwriters to start paying down the bonds early, redirecting cash from other uses such as lending and organic growth. According to Bloomberg, one company, Avant Inc. and its underwriters, will have to begin to repay three of its asset-backed notes, which have all breached trigger levels.

Copper Is Having It's Best Week Ever As Chinese Speculators Run Amok (Again)

Copper has never, ever, risen at such a torid pace as this week. Blowing away any week's performance of the last 30 years, copper futures are up almost 20% as hopes for US President-Elect Trump's infrastructure spending extended its winning streak to an unprecedented 15 days in a row (up over 28%). There is just one problem - just like we saw in Iron ore over the summer, speculation (reportedly from Chinese traders) is running wild.

For Deutsche Bank, This Is The "Brexit Panic" Signal In Today's Election

Deutsche Bank has advised its sales and trading team to immediately report to their trading desks should Trump wins Pennsylvania and Michigan. So if Trump be is reported to be leading and/or winning the two key battleground states at 8pm, expect all volatility hell to break loose.

Frontrunning: November 8

  • At last, America decides (Reuters)
  • America’s Voters Finally Get Their Day (BBG)
  • This Election Has One Sure Thing: A More Dysfunctional Congress (BBG)
  • Control of the Senate Goes Down to the Wire (WSJ)
  • 2016 Election Day: Live Results and Analysis (WSJ)
  • Dollar Volatility Drops as Clinton Leads in Final Election Poll (BBG)

"Someone Is Wrong" - Why The Quant War Means Vol Is Set To Soar

"No matter what happens, there’s going to be volatility, because someone is wrong,” said Mark Connors, Credit Suisse’s global head of risk advisory in New York. “Even though we won’t have rate resolution, we will have the look of Congress and there will be some position changes given the positioning is very disparate -- very long and very short. That’s unstable."

Waking Up In Hillary Clinton's America

With less than two weeks to go before E-day -- despite the Trumptilian upheaval of the last year -- the high probability of a Clinton win means the establishment remains intact. When we awaken on November 9th, it will undoubtedly be dawn in Hillary Clinton’s America and that potentially means four years of an economic dystopia that will (as would Donald Trump’s version of the same) leave many Americans rightfully anxious about their economic futures.

Love Him Or Hate Him: Trump Is The Revolution Against The Establishment

Whenever people are forced by the government to accept and pay for things they do not want, the outcome is discontent and opposition, typically suppressed and downplayed by the mainstream media in accordance with the state’s agenda of political correctness. Trump stands for everyone who is sick and tired of the current system and the political elite who have grown out of touch with ordinary American citizens... they are the American version of the European anti-establishment movement.

Bitcoin Soars As China Launches Crackdown On Wealth-Management Products

The most recent burst in bitcoin activity, which sent it surging by over $20 overnight, has little to do with any moves in the official Chinese currency, which recently rebounded modestly tracking the recent dip in the dollar, and is likely attributable to a long overdue crackdown on China's Wealth-management products, a key component of China’s "shadow banking" system.