Citigroup

After losing 7% in September, and down 20% for 2015 as of Oct. 1, the question is will Andy Hall be the only hedge fund manager with the distinction to have blown up not once but twice in one year, on the very same bet?

Just before the first credit bubble burst, Fortress' Macro hedge fund, then known as Drawbridge as well as several other castle-related terms, peaked at just over $8 billion. Together with Phil Falcone's Harbinger, it was one of the most desired venue to work among the young hedge fund crowd. It has been downhill ever since, and unfortunately for the hedge fund run by Michael Novogratz, which reported $2.5 billion in AUM as of June 30, a number which plunged to just $1.6 billion two months later according to HSBC, as a result of a terrible year, down 13.4% YTD after losing 1.6% in 2014, and having suffered its biggest ever drawdown the macro hedge fund, which does not file an equity 13-F, is liquidating.

The cyclical fallout from the Great Financial Crisis and the secular deflationary “D’s” of excess Debt, tech Disruption, aging Demographics have been the major catalysts for deflation.

While the US bond market, if not equities, is enjoying the day off on a day in which there is no economic data just more Fed speakers including the Fed's Evans who on Friday uttered what may be the dumbest thing a central planner has ever said, the week's macro docket starts in earnest on Tuesday when China releases much anticipated September trade data. Here are the key events for the rest of the week.

• BoJ minutes are due to be released on Tuesday with multiple central bank speakers on the slate to supplement the calendar
• Investment Banks are in focus as earnings season starts in full swing, with analysts looking for whether the global slowdown had an impact on results

"We believe that the path of least resistance would be to effectively ban capitalism and by-pass banking and capital markets altogether. We gave this policy change several names (such as “Cuba alternative”, “British Leyland”) but the essence of the new form of QE would be using central banks and public instrumentalities to directly inject “heroin into blood stream” rather than relying on system of incentives to drive investor behaviour."

The warnings are getting louder.  Is anybody listening?

Overnight we got confirmation that Glencore has indeed become a systemic risk from a regulatory standpoint after the FT reported that the Bank of England has asked British financial institutions to reveal their full exposure to commodity traders and falling prices of raw materials amid concerns over the impact of the oil and metals slump. Or, in other words, their exposure to Glencore, Trafigura, Vitol, Gunvor and Mecuria.

The global risk on mood (which is really anything but, and is merely an unprecedented short covering squeeze as we will report momentarily) launched by an abysmal jobs report one week ago and "validated" yesterday by the surprisingly dovish FOMC minutes, which said nothing new but merely confirmed what most knew, namely that a rate hike is almost certain to not occur until mid-2016 if ever, and accelerated by a Fed-driven collapse in the dollar which overnight has led to a historic 3.4% move in the Indonesian Rupiah the most since 2008, has pushed global stocks even higher in their biggest weekly rally since 2012, despite the start of an earnings season where virtually every single company reporting so far has stumbled on earnings reports that were far worse than even gloomy consensus had expected.

If you think this sounds like some kind of conspiracy theory, consider that France just banned any transaction over €1,000 Euros from using physical cash. Spain has already banned transactions over €2,500. Uruguay has banned transactions over $5,000. And on and on.

• How Iranian general plotted out Syrian assault in Moscow (Reuters)
• China FX reserves post record quarterly fall as cenbank steps up yuan support (Reuters)
• MSF calls for independent inquiry into U.S. attack on Afghan hospital (Reuters)
• Yen Advances as Bank of Japan Refrains From Adding to Stimulus (Reuters)
• Abu Dhabi Said to Explore Asset Sales After Slump in Oil Price (BBG)
• U.S. Oil Approaching $50 Boosts Stocks as Emerging Markets Surge (BBG)

In the real world, any casino (legal or otherwise) which refused to pay when the “house” lost would quickly be driven out of business

Despite the arguably undemocratic, obfuscating nature of our nation’s campaign finance laws and the blatant corporatist agenda mandated by the Supreme Court, let’s attempt to break down the major sources of political spending so far in the 2016 presidential election. You may be surprised to find out who is donating money to your candidate — and how that contribution may affect future policy positions.

On Monday, a missile from a Saudi-led airstrike struck a Yemeni wedding reception in the village of Al-Wahijah, located near the Red Sea. The explosion resulted in 131 deaths, and the incident is being labeled as one of the deadliest attacks on civilians during the six-month conflict. In total, there have been 7,217 civilian casualties, including 2,355 killed and 4,862 wounded in the six months since the fighting began, according to the United Nations.

With China markets closed for holiday until the middle of next week, and little in terms of global macro data overnight (the only notable central banker comment overnight came from Mario Draghi who confidently proclaimed that "economic growth is returning" which on its own is bad for risk assets), it was all about the USDJPY which has seen the usual no-volume levitation overnight, dragging both the Nikkei higher with it, and US equity futures, which as of this moment were at session highs, up 7 points. The calm may be broken, though, as soon as two hours from now when the September "most important ever until the next" payrolls report is released.