Jim Cramer

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ISM Manufacturing Tumbles To 13-Month Lows, Employment Slumps, Construction Spending Plunges





Despite a collapse in US macro data in February, Markit somehow managed to conjure a better than expected 55.1 print for US Manufacturing PMI. Under the covers employment creation was the slowest since July and inflationary pressures loom as selling prices rose notably. ISM Manufacturing printed 52.9 - a small miss vs 53.0 expectations - down for the 4th month in a row to 13-month lows, with employment at its weakest since June 2013. Construction spending's modest rebound in (seemingly un-weather-affected) December (after dropping in November) has been destroyed with a 1.1% drop in January (against expectations of 0.3% rise) for the biggest drop in 8 months.

 
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1987 Or 2015? The Gap Between Growth Expectations & Valuations Is "Ridiculous"





While the divergence between macro data 'dismalness' and equity price exuberance is by now well known, there is a greater threat looming to the rampapalooza that is underway. As forward Price-to-Earnings ratios have soared in the last year (aided and abetted - as Alan Greenspan explained - solely by The Fed's largesse) so bottom-up earnings growth expectations have cratered. So much so that veteran stock market investors and traders now see the divergence between multiple 'hope' and growth 'reality' as "ridiculous." Just how ridiculous? Worse than 1987, 2002, and 2011, when stocks fell over 20% upon realization of reality.

 
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The Global Economy Is Not "Off The Lows"





On the day when the MSCI World Stock Index hits a fresh record high - enthused by the exuberance of the US markets - we thought it more than a little ironic that Global GDP growth expectations for 2015 just hit a fresh record low...

 
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Do Not Show Jim Bullard This Chart!





It's fact-checking time once again. Having questioned the credibility of Dallas Fed's Richard Fisher previously, we thought this morning's comments by St.Louis Fed's Jim Bullard were worth investigating:

*DOLLAR EFFECTS ARE MARGINAL ON U.S. ECONOMY, SHOULDN'T INHIBIT GROWTH, FED'S BULLARD SAYS

Which just seems odd given the rest of the world's competitive devaluation efforts to 'improve' their economies. What we found will not surprise... but do not show this chart to Bullard.

 
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The Most Important Commodity For Housing Is Screaming "Recession"





While Crude Oil and Dr. Copper are often cited as economic indicators, as we noted previously, in fact Lumber prices are the most correlated with ISM and GDP of all industrial commodities (h/t @Not_Jim_Cramer). That is a problem. Lumber prices are tumbling - breaking to 18-month lows today. We have seen this picture before, and it did not end well...

 
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Welcome To The Recession?





It's different this time...

 
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The Lack Of Volume Is Deafening





We know, we know... volume doesn't matter... but if "There Is No Alternative" and there is mountains of "money on the sidelines" then why is average trade size plunging (cough algos cough) and volume collapsing in lockstep with each and every new record high in stocks?

 
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The Global Death Cross Just Got "Deathier"





"X" continues to mark the spot of the death of global investor rationality...

 
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The Secular Death Of Market Bears Continues





"Walls of worry"... seem to be crumbling...

 
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Welcome To Eccles Island: Where Tulips Bloom In A Polar Vortex





The week just ended laid bare any pretensions that there is not something wrong (seriously wrong) within the natural world of both the macro underpinnings of business as well as finance. Unimaginable just a short 6 years ago, the U.S. equity markets closed at a height once again never before seen in human history highs, (it has more than tripled from the 2008 bottom!) but has done so solely on Keynesian fairy tales. The issue now is: does the fairytale end in a nightmare?

 
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Why German Investors Are Hoping The Economy Gets Even Worse





Because "bad is good" in the new normal central-planner-created fiction in which we live...

 
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2015 US Economic Data Is Worst Since 2009





As Steve Ricchiuto explained to a stunned CNBC audience, the US economy is not as awesome as the narrative would proclaim. In fact, based on the underlying data (as opposed to anecdotal perspectives like Jim Cramer this morning dismissing hard data - "I am no longer using these aggregate retail sales reports" - in favor of rose-colored glass half-full CEO expectations from earnings calls) 2015 has seen US macro data deteriorate and disappoint the most since 2006... and weakest absolute start to the year since 2009.

 
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Why Greece Should Leave The Euro In 1 Simple Chart





Is it any wonder that The Greeks want to leave The Euro? One glance at the following chart and it is clear who the growth engine is and who the anchor is...

 
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