Jim Cramer

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The New "Scariest Chart" For American Citizens

For the average American citizen, this may well become the "scariest" chart...

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The Audacity Of Hope Meets The Veracity Of Data

Hope may be an investing strategy in the short-term, but it is not a driver of economic growth...

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What Wall Street Expects From Today's Payrolls Number, And Why It May Be Overly Optimistic

The most important not yet double seasonally-adjusted economic datapoint is upon us: in 90 minutes the BLS will report the May payrolls number which consensus expects to rise by 225K, (range of 140K to 305K), barely unchanged from April's 223K. The meaningless unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 5.4%, even as the number of people not in the labor force likely will rise to a new record high. The most important variable, however, will be the hourly earnings with consensus expecting a 0.2% increase for all workers (the non-supervisory workers category is a different story entirely), up from the 0.1% increase in April.

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When, Not If

It's just a matter of time...

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Did The Sell-Side "Hopers" Just Give Up?

Weather or no weather, even the sell-side's most exuberant hope-mongers appear to be losing faith in 'revisions', 'double-seasonals', or 'rebounds' saving the US economy...

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Atlanta Fed 2 - 0 Wall Street Optimists: Q2 GDP Expectations Crash

Who could have predicted this? Wall Street's consensus crowd of perennial optimists have taken the machete out to Q2 GDP growth expectations (just as they had to when Q1 showed them all for the worse weather forecasters ever). The tumble in Q2 expectations brings Wall Street once again, closer to where The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model forecast is... a mere 0.7% growth... and drags total 2015 growth well below trend.

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Bond Bloodbath? Putting The Jump In Rates Into Perspective

Some folks have been dumpingglobal bonds again today (after disappointing retail sales in the US). But, can we just put the recent bump in interest rates into some perspective? Will the "bond bull" market eventually come to an end?  Yes, eventually. However, the catalysts needed to create the type of economic growth required to drive interest rates substantially higher, as we saw previous to the 1960-70's, are simply not available today. This will likely be the case for many years to come as the Fed, and the administration, come to the inevitable conclusion that we are now caught within a "liquidity trap" along with the bulk of developed countries.

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"More Probable Than Not"

To use the ponderous, legally parsed language of the NFL’s Wells Report on “deflate-gate”, language which we think wonderfully encapsulates the pinched spirit of our age, here are four things that we believe are “more probable than not”: 1) Alex Rodriguez has routinely used steroids and PED’s of various stripes since he was a sophomore in high school; 2) Tom Brady has routinely bribed equipment managers with autographed jerseys and new shoes in order to receive footballs deflated well below what he knew was the legal limit; 3) Janet Yellen has routinely leaked market-moving information to favored private sector conduits, and has also sought to quash internal investigations of same; and 4) Ben Bernanke is for sale to the highest bidder.  But here’s the thing, we're not that worked up about 'any' of these issues. What we are worked up about, though, is the mendacity - the utter lack of character and authenticity - on full display in all of these cases. All of these cases and so many, many more.
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The 'Lumbering' US Economy

While Crude and Copper get all the glory, the fact is, as we have detailed previously, Lumber prices are the most correlated with economic activity (ISM and GDP) of all industrial commodities. That is quickly becoming a major problem for the "Q1 was weather and now we get the epic bounceback" narrative writers.

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A Seasoned Trader "Remembers" The Flash Crash

We suspect, given the plethora of newly-minted immodest gurus in the investment world, the following "memory" of the 2010 flash-crash - from a seasoned modest trader - will be repeated many times as 2015 progresses.

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Well That Hasn't Happened Before - Exhibit 6

We have never, ever, seen a larger divergence between long-term earnings growth expectations and equity valuations...

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Five Charts Showing the US is Back in Recession

Numerous data points are showing the economy is approaching if not already in recession. And yet stocks are pricing in economic perfection. By the time they catch on… we’ll see a serious market correction.

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USDJPY, Nikkei Tumble After Bank Of Japan Disappoints

Japanese stocks and USDJPY are back below the lows of the US day-session following The Bank of Japan's decision not to stimulate further (despite all the collapsing economic evidence one might need to do such a thing). Investors were clearly hoping for moar (even if economists weren't). With GDP expectations collapsing, BoJ still voted 8-1 not to increase QQE keeping monetary base growth expectations flat. The result is a 500 point drop in The Nikkei from this morning's highs and around 1 handle drop in USDJPY... for now.

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"Twitter has likely the greatest array of company-specific catalysts of any company in its sphere this year, including Periscope, core monthly active user (MAU) acceleration from the Google partnership, and new core features like embedded video.... building out the "tail" should allow Twitter to grow well-above average over the next several years. With a global ad load between 1% to 2% and 85% from mobile, we think TWTR has more revenue runway than any other company in the Internet space. Our target is $55."

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