Jim Cramer

Tyler Durden's picture

Did The Sell-Side "Hopers" Just Give Up?





Weather or no weather, even the sell-side's most exuberant hope-mongers appear to be losing faith in 'revisions', 'double-seasonals', or 'rebounds' saving the US economy...

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Atlanta Fed 2 - 0 Wall Street Optimists: Q2 GDP Expectations Crash





Who could have predicted this? Wall Street's consensus crowd of perennial optimists have taken the machete out to Q2 GDP growth expectations (just as they had to when Q1 showed them all for the worse weather forecasters ever). The tumble in Q2 expectations brings Wall Street once again, closer to where The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model forecast is... a mere 0.7% growth... and drags total 2015 growth well below trend.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Bond Bloodbath? Putting The Jump In Rates Into Perspective





Some folks have been dumpingglobal bonds again today (after disappointing retail sales in the US). But, can we just put the recent bump in interest rates into some perspective? Will the "bond bull" market eventually come to an end?  Yes, eventually. However, the catalysts needed to create the type of economic growth required to drive interest rates substantially higher, as we saw previous to the 1960-70's, are simply not available today. This will likely be the case for many years to come as the Fed, and the administration, come to the inevitable conclusion that we are now caught within a "liquidity trap" along with the bulk of developed countries.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

"More Probable Than Not"





To use the ponderous, legally parsed language of the NFL’s Wells Report on “deflate-gate”, language which we think wonderfully encapsulates the pinched spirit of our age, here are four things that we believe are “more probable than not”: 1) Alex Rodriguez has routinely used steroids and PED’s of various stripes since he was a sophomore in high school; 2) Tom Brady has routinely bribed equipment managers with autographed jerseys and new shoes in order to receive footballs deflated well below what he knew was the legal limit; 3) Janet Yellen has routinely leaked market-moving information to favored private sector conduits, and has also sought to quash internal investigations of same; and 4) Ben Bernanke is for sale to the highest bidder.  But here’s the thing, we're not that worked up about 'any' of these issues. What we are worked up about, though, is the mendacity - the utter lack of character and authenticity - on full display in all of these cases. All of these cases and so many, many more.
 
Tyler Durden's picture

The 'Lumbering' US Economy





While Crude and Copper get all the glory, the fact is, as we have detailed previously, Lumber prices are the most correlated with economic activity (ISM and GDP) of all industrial commodities. That is quickly becoming a major problem for the "Q1 was weather and now we get the epic bounceback" narrative writers.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

A Seasoned Trader "Remembers" The Flash Crash





We suspect, given the plethora of newly-minted immodest gurus in the investment world, the following "memory" of the 2010 flash-crash - from a seasoned modest trader - will be repeated many times as 2015 progresses.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Well That Hasn't Happened Before - Exhibit 6





We have never, ever, seen a larger divergence between long-term earnings growth expectations and equity valuations...

 
Phoenix Capital Research's picture

Five Charts Showing the US is Back in Recession





Numerous data points are showing the economy is approaching if not already in recession. And yet stocks are pricing in economic perfection. By the time they catch on… we’ll see a serious market correction.

 
 
Tyler Durden's picture

USDJPY, Nikkei Tumble After Bank Of Japan Disappoints





Japanese stocks and USDJPY are back below the lows of the US day-session following The Bank of Japan's decision not to stimulate further (despite all the collapsing economic evidence one might need to do such a thing). Investors were clearly hoping for moar (even if economists weren't). With GDP expectations collapsing, BoJ still voted 8-1 not to increase QQE keeping monetary base growth expectations flat. The result is a 500 point drop in The Nikkei from this morning's highs and around 1 handle drop in USDJPY... for now.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

ActionAlertPLUS!





"Twitter has likely the greatest array of company-specific catalysts of any company in its sphere this year, including Periscope, core monthly active user (MAU) acceleration from the Google partnership, and new core features like embedded video.... building out the "tail" should allow Twitter to grow well-above average over the next several years. With a global ad load between 1% to 2% and 85% from mobile, we think TWTR has more revenue runway than any other company in the Internet space. Our target is $55."

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Twitter Confirms Leak: Stocks Plummets On Disastrous Results, Outlook Cut





Well, the leak (which ironically came out on Twitter only, and not Facebook) was right, and the full story is even worse than Selerity reported:TWITTER 1Q LOSS PER SHARE 25C; TWITTER INC 1Q ADJ. EPS 7C , EST. 4C.
That much we knew. Here is where it gets worse:

  • TWITTER 1Q REV. $ 435.9M, EST. $456.2M
  • TWITTER SEES 2Q REV. $470M TO $485M, EST. $538.1M
  • TWTR SEES YR REV $2.170B-$2.270B, SAW $2.3B-$2.35B, EST $2.37B

And now perhaps someone will ask how much of Facebook's 1.4 billion "users" are actually real.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Just 6 Charts





Presented with one comment... Di(e)Vergence?

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Builders Beggar Belief As Lumber Liquidation Looms





With lumber prices plunging to fresh 3 year lows, the divergence between homebuilders and the most economically-sensitive commodity is starting to suggest a rather scary case of deja vu all over again.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Bloomberg Service Now Fully Restored





"Service has been fully restored. We experienced a combination of hardware and software failures in the network, which caused an excessive volume of network traffic. This led to customer disconnections as a result of the machines being overwhelmed. We discovered the root cause quickly, isolated the faulty hardware, and restarted the software. We are reviewing our multiple redundant systems, which failed to prevent this disruption."

 
Tim Knight from Slope of Hope's picture

Negative Interest





The past six years have transformed my disposition toward the markets from excitement to frustration to despair to disillusionment to sheer tedium.

 
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