Jim Cramer

It’s not supposed to be like this. We’ve all been told earnings are great, corporate profits are great, analysts estimates have been rising. As a matter of fact, if one dared to question any of these metrics we were referred to as “idiots.” (And that is an actual quote.) Today as we enter this earnings cycle we have a new phrase that I’m sure will enter the lexicon of the lay person in reference to stocks, but will send shivers down actual Wall Street’ers as they have to defend, argue, or give a smoke and mirrors story that will have a chance of being believed. That phrase will be “a trap door event.”

While CNBC's Bob Pisani prevaricates on low "high" volume rally days and "the important things," ahead of Q3 earnings and a horde of hungry commission-takers explain to a gullible public how fundamentals are strong (ignoring entirely the massive manipulation buybacks and financial engineering) and earnings will confirm the equity market's wisdom any day now; we thought it worth a glance at the dismal evolution of earnings expectations for Q3. Since the start of July, S&P 500 Q3 earnings expectations have collapsed from 11.0% to just 6.4% with 9 of the 10 sectors lower and Consumer Discretionary now expected to see negative growth. But... that's probably not the important thing, right?

With just $10 billion of freshly-printed money left (plus reinvested maturing debt) the Fed is rapidly running out of put-providing, VIX-selling, low-volume-levitating ammunition to keep the wealth-creation dream alive. Nowhere is that more evident in the collapse in equity market breadth. NYSE New Lows have surged to 14-month highs and the spread to New Highs is weakest since August 2013. Of course, back then, equity bulls could rely on a guaranteed 'flow' from the Fed to BTFD, this time that backstop does not exist.

High-yield credit canaries are singing again... Blackrock will be in full panic mode...

If tapering isn't tightening.. and it's about the stock not the flow... then equity bulls have nothing to worry about. However, this chart suggests both of those flawed assumptions are entirely incorrect...

If a picture paints a thousand words, these three charts should write an entire book about the "market's" earnings...

I was originally going to title this post "Jackie DeAngelis Must Die", but I thought she might take it the wrong way.

For the first time since July 2011's plunge, and with almost half its components already in bear market, the Russell 2000 looks set to experience a 'death cross' in the next few days (50-day moving average crossing below the 200-day). But don't look at that - the S&P 500 and Dow hit new record highs (despite market internals slumping) today ahead of the BABA IPO to keep the dream alive just a little longer ahead of tomorrow's quad-witching malarkey. Today's action was dominated by dismal housing data (demolishing yesterday's exuberance in homebuilders), Poroshenko's "Ukraine invasion" headlines, and hopes ahead of BABA and Scottish votes. USD down on the day, commodities down, bonds unch, stocks... UP.

When you see the headlines touting strong retail sales, you need to consider what you are actually seeing in the real world. RadioShack will be filing for bankruptcy within months. Wet Seal will follow. Sears is about two years from a bankruptcy filing. JC Penney’s turnaround is a sham. They continue to lose hundreds of millions every quarter and will be filing for bankruptcy within the next couple years. Target and Wal-Mart continue to post awful sales results and have stopped expanding. And as you drive around in your leased BMW, you see more Space Available signs than operating outlets in every strip center in America.

With Bono's words still hanging in the air, the market's response to Apple's unveiling is simple: "we still haven't found what we're looking for." Some argue the weakness is AAPL-related, others point to AUDJPY fun-durr-mentals, but the bottom-line is the Fed hinted at more hawkishness, short-term bonds are weakening (long-end rally with notable flattening), VIX is rising and inverted (to 1-mo highs), and HY credit is getting ugly once again as it seems stocks are indeed catching on to the fact that the Fed will really be removing the punchbowl... S&P fell to 3-week lows as AUD collapsed (but EUR strength sent the USD lower on the day) and lost the crucial 2,000 level by the most since it was first breached.

Two words - "waning participation"...

While not exactly a "bear", Deutsche Bank's David Bianco - until this weekend - had the lowest S&P 500 target for 2014 year-end at 1,850. That's all changed now...

Thanks to yesterday's dismal jobs data, we now know that there has never been a lower percentage of white men over 20 working in America...

Remember, it's for Main Street...

Draghi did it (or didn't), blame him... From record intraday highs (on vapid volume) to 5-day lows in the S&P 500 as Mario Draghi cut rates even negative-er and promised to do more QEing. EURUSD collapsed over 2 big figures to 14-month lows below 1.2950. The implicit USD strength sparked selling in everything else. Treasuries pushed notably higher in yield (30Y +13bps on the week, 5Y +8bps) and held their yield highs as stocks started to collapse after Europe closed. The standard late-day machine-driven VWAP ramp lifted stocks off the lows, but S&P 2,000 remained elusive. Gold, silver, and oil all pushed lower as USD jerked higher. High-yield spreads jumped most in 6 weeks to 3-week wides and provided a warning to stocks all day. Bottom line - USD up, everything else down... (except Trannies).