Jim Cramer

What happens when there's no one left to sell to...

If you are still of the belief that the stock "market" is a market of stocks idiosyncratically valued based on the aggregate of investors weighted expectations of future earnings potential, we highly recommend you look away from the chart below. If, however, like Rick Santelli's "something is wrong" comment or Carl Icahn's "it's all a mirage" perspective, you have some doubts, take a glimpse at the 'fundamental' reality you are betting your retirement on...

Two-and-a-half years ago, none other than the Fed's Bill Dudley explained why the inflating price of food was nothing to worry about because iPads were dropping in price (to which an audience member, rightly, exclaimed - "I can't eat an iPad"). Fast forward to today, and it seems, based on the highly scientific chart below, that the growth of food stamps (the benefit provided to members of our society that need caramel macchiatos or liquor - oh and food) correlates uncomfortably closely with the demand for iPads. Perhaps, Bill Dudley was right after all - we can eat our iPads...

While we could (and have) show a plethora of charts of the trends of earnings, revenues, and macro data, the following 'summary' of Q3 earnings from Thomson One says it all... As far as pre-announcements, the 9.2x negative-to-positive is the "largest negative guidance on record" - five words, every bull should just ignore...

How many more quarters of this Einsteinian insanity will it take for investors to realize the sell-side analysts' "forecasts" are worse than useless...?

It seems, as Jim Quinn notes, the 99% are not cooperating with the 1% plan for economic recovery. As Gallup reports, average Americans plan on spending 10% less for Christmas gifts this year than last year. Not only that, but they are spending 19% less than they spent in 2007 and 18% less than they spent in 1999. The average American is spending less because they have less as the talking heads on CNBC and the rest of the MSM tell me that things are great. Opening stores on Thanksgiving will not save anyone and perhaps more critically, the last 2 times the November forecast for holiday spending slumped - the US entered recession!

...so goes global GDP...?

... Is shown on the chart below, which compares indexed growth, or lack thereof, in G-5 GDP and compares it to consolidated central bank balance sheets. We bring this up because following this morning's announcement by the ECB's Praet that the European central bank may launch a round of QE (of questionable legality) it is only a matter of time before the red line really takes off and insanity hits truly unseen levels.

White men may not have jobs, but at least they will have more time to enjoy sports actvities such as basketball, and finally learn to jump. As for any associated sport injuries: there's always Obamacare.

While chart analogs provide optically pleasing (and often far too shockingly correct) indications of the human herd tendencies towards fear and greed, a glance through the headlines and reporting of prior periods can provide just as much of a concerning 'analog' as any chart. In this case, while these 3 pictures can paint a thousand words; a thousand words may also paint the biggest picture of all. It seems, socially and empirically, it is never different this time as these 1936 Wall Street Journal archives read only too well... from devaluations lifting stocks to inflationary side-effects of money flow and from short-covering, money-on-the-sidelines, Jobs, Europe, low-volume ramps, BTFD, and profit-taking, to brokers advising stocks for the long-run before a 40% decline.

It would appear that the National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) website - required when purchasing a gun or explosive - is capable of handling large volumes of users...

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Attention this week was focused on Europe's overall (disappointing) 0.7% inflation print - which sent Draghi back to drawing board - despite the world of sell-side strategists exclaiming that Europe has turned the corner and now is the time to load the boat. However, quietly out of sight for the mainstream, Greece just printed its worst deflation data on record. Consumer prices fell 2.0% on an annual basis as a combination of deep recession, wage cuts, and substantial spare capacity squeeze prices lower. Additionally, we already showed the dismal demise of the macro picture across the European union - heading in a very different direction that the stock markets.. but now, bottom-up, earnings are collapsing too... so remind us again why Europe is a "strong buy?"

Because it's not about valuations.. and it's not about rational expectations... we present the only metric necessary to project TWTR's price into the oh-so-predictable future...

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