Jim Cramer

While largely noise in the context of the big picture, last week's multi-year low in initial claims of 320K (revised upward as usual to 323K), driven in big part by the specific furlough situation at the automakers, reversed and rose by 13K to 330K, or 6K higher than expectations. This was the highest claims number since July 19, the biggest miss to expectations and also the largest weekly jump in 6 weeks. Notably, the entire move was due to seasonal adjustments: the unadjusted claims number declined even more, dropping from 283K to 279K, although with the market at a point where bad news is desperately needed to provide even the tiniest bounce to risk, the adjustment is now meant to distort the underlying data lower not higher.

Presented with no comment...

Presented with no comment...

When a sophisticated hedge fund manager takes a position in the most senior segment of a failing retail form's capital structure, it is not a bet on recovery: it's a bet on being long the fulcrum security in an upcoming chapter 11, or at worst, on having collateral coverage to cover your exposure in a liquidation Chapter 7... And for anyone who spent more than 2 minutes deciphering this morning's JCP results will know, the cash burn is immense and outweighs any glib PR-strewn headlines that support a positive future. In fact, even the CFO noted he did not see any major trend change in the short-term (i.e. more of the same downtrend?) Of course, that didn't stop CNBC's Jim Cramer from talking it up pre-market (to a 8.9% gain before the bell) as he exclaims in the clip below "this is an amazing quarter... I am positive, the stock will go higher." Well, 60 minutes after retail got their first chance to buy, JCP is down 9% from its open, in the red for the day, and reflecting more closely the dismal reality that credit markets remain convinced of.

One of the main reasons that investors so often get caught up in major market meltdowns is due to the short-sighted, near term, focus of market analysts and economists.  The data has to be analyzed with relation to the longer term trends and a clear understanding that all things, despite ongoing central bank interventions, do eventually end.  The problem with the current environment is that the artificial inflations have detached the market from the underlying economic fundamentals which has historically led to larger than expected reversions and outright crashes.

Presented with little comment aside to note that while every night we are told by how much the Dow closed green, many await the day the chart below flashes anything but red.

While the 'people of Wal-Mart' may reflect the people of America, we hope - based on the chart below - that the growth in Wal-Mart does not reflect the growth of America...

Presented with no comment...

Presented with no comment...

As the following two charts show, despite the rest of the world being mired in an entirely lackadaisical muddle-through (in terms of both manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs), the US is representing itself as the new growth engine with an expanding and rising economy (if the 'recovery-is-right-around-the-corner' data is to be believed). Of course, we are hearing the term 'decoupling' and 'cleanest dirty shirt' once again (begging the question Rick Santelli has asked numerous times "so why not remove the Fed's training wheels") but we remind, there is never a decoupling in the highly interconnected global economy (and its stagnant trade volumes). Our simple question is, with all this dramatic divergence from the rest of the world, stagnant income growth, and anemic manufacturing job growth at best, how will the consumer-driven US sustain its exuberance?

Presented with little comment aside to note that there appears to be another, far more structural, great rotation under way in America.

It started moments after the release of the Federal Reserve’s latest decision on interest rates. Even though officially they announced maintaining the same policies of low rates and Quantitative Easing, it was a single word change in the official text of their press release from the prior month that sent shockwaves around the world and changed everything forever...

With rates rising amid the glorious faith that recovery is upon us, tapering is a storm in a teacup, and nothing can stop us now, we present the dreadful symmetry of the US leverage situation (Federal Debt-to-GDP) relative to rates. We suggest investors be careful what they wish for on 'rotational' fantasies as GDP growth won't save us this time and the deleveraging effect of any serious retrenchment in debt will feedback into the 'credit-is-growth' drain-circling that has been evident for the last 30 years... So, if we do indeed have perfect historic symmetry, what will be the 'event' that takes total US debt from well over 100% of GDP to less than half of that?

Obama: "...the economy is far stronger now than it was four and a half years ago"

...as long as one ignores the reality of the following chart...