Jim Cramer

While Crude Oil and Dr. Copper are often cited as economic indicators, as we noted previously, in fact Lumber prices are the most correlated with ISM and GDP of all industrial commodities (h/t @Not_Jim_Cramer). That is a problem. Lumber prices are tumbling - breaking to 18-month lows today. We have seen this picture before, and it did not end well...

It's different this time...

We know, we know... volume doesn't matter... but if "There Is No Alternative" and there is mountains of "money on the sidelines" then why is average trade size plunging (cough algos cough) and volume collapsing in lockstep with each and every new record high in stocks?

"X" continues to mark the spot of the death of global investor rationality...

"Walls of worry"... seem to be crumbling...

The week just ended laid bare any pretensions that there is not something wrong (seriously wrong) within the natural world of both the macro underpinnings of business as well as finance. Unimaginable just a short 6 years ago, the U.S. equity markets closed at a height once again never before seen in human history highs, (it has more than tripled from the 2008 bottom!) but has done so solely on Keynesian fairy tales. The issue now is: does the fairytale end in a nightmare?

Because "bad is good" in the new normal central-planner-created fiction in which we live...

As Steve Ricchiuto explained to a stunned CNBC audience, the US economy is not as awesome as the narrative would proclaim. In fact, based on the underlying data (as opposed to anecdotal perspectives like Jim Cramer this morning dismissing hard data - "I am no longer using these aggregate retail sales reports" - in favor of rose-colored glass half-full CEO expectations from earnings calls) 2015 has seen US macro data deteriorate and disappoint the most since 2006... and weakest absolute start to the year since 2009.

Is it any wonder that The Greeks want to leave The Euro? One glance at the following chart and it is clear who the growth engine is and who the anchor is...

The inability of the linear thinking ruling class to acknowledge the seriousness of our current circumstances and the implications of the era of depression and violence the country is about to experience can be witnessed on a daily basis by listening to mainstream media talking heads or politicians of all stripes who bloviate about economic improvement and progress just ahead. Could there be a better example of myopia, delusion and willful ignorance than the theme and opening line of Obama’s State of the Union speech: "The Shadow Of Crisis Has Passed" Do Obama and his advisors actually believe this Crisis is over? Or is he purposely misleading the American people about the seriousness of our circumstances because he has been instructed to do so by the men who really pull the levers of this country?

Just three things to consider: "The Fed doesn't matter?" - so just ignore the correlation between Federal Reserve balance sheet expansion (flow) and S&P 500 performance tumbling lower. "Earnings don't matter?" - because for now, stocks are entirely ignoring the three-month plunge in consensus EPS expectations. "Macro fundamentals don't matter?" - because if they did, US equity prices would be collapsing. Trade accordingly...

They are at it again... The 'smartest people in the room' have once again taken the big board-eraser to GDP growth expectations... but have no fear, for what Keynesian aggregate demand can't pull forward into Q1 will surely unleash pent-up demandedness in H2 to save the year...

And the collapse just keeps going... since Thanksgiving, The Baltic Dry has fallen on 43 or the 47 days, down over 60% from the "China growth is back and all-is-well" hope-filled days of late October (when Jim Cramer "stressed the importance of watching the Baltic Dry Freight Index," as his bullish thesis confirmation). At 569, The Baltic Dry is inching ever closer to what will be the lowest level ever (554 on 7/31/1986) for the global shipping cost indicator...