Jim Cramer

USDJPY has broken below its 200-day moving-average at 101.25 and is trading back to almost 6-month lows this morning ahead of this evening's BoJ meeting (which is largely expected now not to provide the additional QQE that everyone hoped for earlier in the exuberant year). The Nikkei is tumbling right along side it... as are US equities... and US Treasury bond yields...

In November we showed a chart showing the yawning chasm of exuberant faith-in-Draghi hope that was 2013-to-2014 earnings growth expectations in Europe. At the time we remarked - now prophetically - how it would seem Draghi's "whatever it takes" confidence-inspiring orgy of European asset-buying had driven the EUR almost 20% higher from the 2012 crisis lows... and in the meantime had crushed European competitiveness. The hockey-stock hope at the end of 2013 has not materialized - surprise - in fact earnings growth expectations have utterly collapsed in the last 2 months... time for a "whatever it takes" to weaken the EUR jawboning soon (all without the aid of a fallacious and Treaty-busting OMT).

For the 4th day in a row, selling pressure in US equities climaxed as Europe closed. The big buying-panic today though was sparked with about an hour to go as VIX was pummeled lower and stocks levitated to save all kinds of key technical levels - (S&P unch, Nasdaq green on the week, S&P back above its 50DMA, Russell off its 7-month lows). Trouble with all that exuberance... bonds, the USD, commodities, JPY carry, and credit weren't buying it. The USD rose 0.2% for the 2nd week in a row (led by 0.5% weakness in the EUR) and JPY strengthened. Commodities all closed higher on the week, led by oil and copper (+2%) with WTI over $102. Treasuries sold off modestly into the late-day buying scramble in stocks but ended the week 10bps lower in yield (biggest weekly drop in 2mo, lowest in 6mo). VIX plunged back to almost 12 with its biggest daily drop in a month. T-Bonds and Bullion are both +7.2% YTD, S&P +1.6% YTD, Russell 2000 -5%YTD.

Presented with little comment, aside to remind the 'money on the sideline'-watchers just how all-in everyone is already...

"They know nothing..." - grab your popcorn and settle in for the clash of the titans as the Cramer-Geithner lovefest explodes on to your screen... the question is will we see:

Cramer 2008 "if Geithner is installed as the next Treasury Secretary then we are done, kaput, finished... we are completely and royally hosed as a nation" or

Cramer 2012 "Geithner is one of the greatest Treasury Secretaries ever."

But "they" can't all be wrong, right?

"Faith" in America's central planners goes from the sublime to the ridiculous...

Mixed data from around the world's economies - irrelevant. More promises from Europe - unimportant. Earnings misses and weather forecasts - useless. Knowing it's a Tuesday - Priceless.

What can one say... Europe's stock markets are booming, bond yields (and spreads) are tumbling... and earnings growth expectations are - collapsing...

How much longer can the balloon be held under water?

In a word... "mixed" Early ugliness gave way to another ramp job courtesy of USDJPY's 101.50 level holding - which managed to clamber the Dow to unchanged on the week and stabilize the S&P (after it bounced off its 50DMA). But... Nasdaq and Russell just could not get it together until the last few minutes  thanks to a VIX slam, JPY ramp and 30Y dump. Yellen's testimony pushed some volatility through markets and perhaps provided the extra pressure on the small caps (after warning of valuations). The term structure steepened modestly with 30Y +1.5bps and the rest of the curve rallying 2-3bps (10Y unch). The USD rallied modestly off 19-month lows. Gold had its worst day in 3 weeks, breaking below 1300 and testing its 100DMA (tick for tick with silver on the day). Oil prices jumped back up to around $101 as Copper slipped back towards $3. And finally, we hesitate to mention it... today's market schizophrenia was enough to trigger a Hindenburg Omen.

Pray to the god of hockey-sticks...

For today's Pop QEez: will the most recent FOMC statement due out in under two hours, be a new record of over 877 words, or will the Fed finally begin tapering, not only of its bond purchases, but of the confused message it is trying to send to HFT algos and whatever carbon-based traders are left?

Owners of high-growth, high-beta stocks could not find a buyer for any of their crap today some mid-afternoon shenanigans between AUDJPY, VIX, and more utterly useless Russian headlines meant those same owners of high-growth, high-beta stocks were beating buyers away with a shitty stick. Pandora is a great example of the chaos (today's swings down 2%, up 4%, down 11%, then up 6%) as today's action in the so-called "market" was anything but human. The buying panic lifted the S&P, Dow, and Trannies briefly into the green for April but very late-day weakness left only the Trannies green for April.  We just hope the desperate BTFWWIII'ers didn't use up all their BTFTuesday ammo...

This week saw yet another nail in the coffin of the 'hope-strewn housing-recovery escape-velocity growth engine of America' meme when new home sales collapsed. Homebuilder stocks, while volatile, have been trending lower recently (notably underperforming the S&P) as macro disappointments continue but, as Stone-McCarthy notes, it is the moves in lumber prices (the prime material used in home construction) that is of particular concern.