Jim Cramer

Euphoria over Apple channel-stuffing and non-GAAP magic for Facebook quickly turned into the HFT-liqudity-providers nightmare as rumors of an emergency Putin press conference sent USDJPY tumbling lower (and therefore US equities). Once the rumor passed - and despite all the facts on the escalation - stocks bounced (especially Nasdaq) to close mixed. S&P and Dow unchish, Nasdaq +0.5%, Russell -0.5%. VIX was in charge in general once the ramp was under-way but even that went into crazy mode as algos lost the plot. Credit markets are "deniers" of the exuberance as are long-end Treasuries which rallied another 2bps and near 10-month lows. Gold was monkey-0hammered early but rallied on Putin's comments and closed unchanged for the week above $1290. Copper rallied notbaly eback above its 50DMA and Oil limped higher as the USD flatlined.

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The "developed world" has finally come full circle.

As the world celebrates "Earth Day" and all the wondrous beauty this planet has to offer, those investing from another world will likely be allocating away from the constant economic-growth-disappointing planet Earth. As the following chart of world growth hopes shows... it's anything but happy...

Gold is down 6 days in a row and has broken back down to its lowest since mid-February (under its 200DMA once again). The reason... aside from growth stocks are rallying which must mean the economy is fixed and therefore no need for the world's central banks to print any more money (oh wait apart from the BoJ and ECB)... is unclear... though we suspect the driver is to do with the following crucial chart...

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Another day, another downgrade in the expectations for US economic growth in Q1 (to a mere 1.5%). But have no fear, oh ye of little faith, for the hockey-stick of hope will refuel that exuberance by the year-end to an underwhelming 2.7% 2014 growth rate...

As stocks once again flip-flop from manic depressive to manic impressive; heading into the last few hours of the day, we thought we would simplify the art of trading a little with the following flowchart...

For the 11th week this year, US stocks are higher on the most fundamentally bullish combination possible in today's markets... a Tuesday open... Absent the exuberance of Turnaround Tuesday (which appears to have been discounted into Manic Monday yesterday afternoon), the S&P would in correction territory (down over 10% in 2014). The question is... will today be any different?

While the so-called "experts" were adamant in repeating that one must ignore all Q1 economic data (because of harsh weather you know), one thing the same "experts" pounded the table on was the earnings growth in 2014 which confirmed that the Fed was correct in tapering and that the corporate sector was well on its way to achieving "escape velocity" and a stable recovery. And then this happened...

Still unconvinced? Even Jim Bullard told investors that 'tapering' is tightening  - but don't take his (or our) word for it... the following chart says it all...

The gap between current Q1 reality and forward-looking, hope-stuffed, unicorn-tear-fueled expectations for US economic growth has reached a new peak of Keynesian 'faith'. This week saw "economists" downgrade Q1 GDP expectations once again to a mere 1.6% growth (from 2.6% in January) - meaning that cold weather is responsible for a 46% collapse in US economic growth expectation. As the chart below 'hints' at, it appears we have reached "peak hope."

We suspect this will come in handy tonight...

As one well-known trader noted - referring to the current move in the US Treasury complex - "rubber, meet road."With the death cross (50DMA crossing below the 200DMA) for bond yields and a crucial trendline having been tested now numerous times (building up its importance), it seems we are about to find out just how much "growth" stocks really do reflect the reality of 'ungrowth' in bonds and vice versa. A break of 2.64% in 10Y yield could be a critical floodgate the Fed does not want opened. As BofAML's Macneil Curry warns, 10Y Treasury bears beware, a break below this level opens up a drop to 2.399%.

Japanese data (double) miss, check! Chinese data miss, check! US data miss, check! Investor trust in US equity at record lows, check! All-time record highs for US equities - you betcha! Stocks broadly pumped and dumped once again today but the start-of-the-month exuberance over April's seasonality was enough to leave gains that accelerated into the close as the long-bond sold off and short-end rallied (biggest 2-day steepening in 5 months). USDJPY was in charge for much of the day but when it went limp in the last hour, it was VIX-clubbing time (to 10-week lows ahead of the ECB and NFP?)  Oil prices slumped intraday (back below $100) as gold slipped but copper and silver flatlined. Wondering what fueled today's panic buying spree? "Most shorted" stocks tripled the market's performance on the day...