Jim Cramer

As the world looks ominously in the direction of Chechnya, we thought this clip of the far less serious 'artist of the Chechen Republic' may be of interest as well as amusement. Watch as the Russian Jim Cramer-ubercaffeination and exuberance equivalent, Nikita Dzhigurda, explains to this novice trader how to buy $1 million worth of Facebook shares..."are you sure?" the trader anxiously asks... and instead of the ubiquitous "Buy, Buy, Buy" we hear claxoned day after day usually accompanied by cow sounds; the hirsute adviser, once diagnosed with 'hypo-manic psychosis' and currently spitting image of Rob Zombie, delivers the punchline, "yeah, fuck it!" Because nobody does things in Russia half-assed.

Update: we decided it may be an opportune time to remind readers of this particular fact, not opinion, not propaganda, not insinuation.

One of the main, unintended consequences of this development to prop up markets at all costs, even if it means removing all logic and reliance on fundamental data, has been the complete evaporation of interest in any finance-related media, forcing the bulk of financial outlets to rely on such cheap gimmicks as slideshows, pictures of kittens, trolling and generally hiring liberal arts majors straight out of school to copy and paste articles while paying them minimum wage, and providing absolutely no insight (and then wondering why the Series ZZ preferred investors will never get their money back, let alone the A round). However, nowhere is this more obvious than in the relentless imploding viewership of once financial media titan, CNBC, which lately has become a sad, one-sided caricature of its once informative self, whose only agenda is to get the most marginal Joe Sixpack to dump his hard-earned cash into 100x P/E stocks, and where according to data from Nielsen Media Research, the total and demographic (25-54) viewership during the prime time segment (9:30am - 5:00 pm) just tumbled to 216K and 40K - the lowest recorded viewership since mid 2005 and sliding.

Forget the multitude of divergences from any and every sense of real fundamentals (or other market structures) that the US equity market is exhibiting; deny for just one moment the existential crisis that is inevitably drawing closer by the day as the world's central bankers/planners truly believe they have the 'final' solution; there is only one fool-proof method of knowing what is coming next. As we noted in September 2012, just 13 days before QEternity was announced, Barron's provided the 'cover' and it seems with this week's 'exuberance' that they have once again provided confirmation. If nothing else, Barron's is great at picking points where Bernanke (or Yellen) feels compelled to save the market from collapse.

The ever-encroaching 'might' of the government - or perhaps, put another way, the ever-decreasing need to be gainfully employed or productive...

It is clear now that we must have been wrong about the economy. No more proof is needed than the fact the Dow has gone up 1,500 points. Everyone knows the stock market reflects the true health of the nation – multi-millionaire Jim Cramer and his millionaire CNBC talking head cohorts tell us so. Ignore the fact that the bottom 80% only own 5% of the financial assets in this country and are not benefitted by the stock market in any way. It is time to open your eyes and arise from your stupor. Observe what is happening around you. Look closely. Does the storyline match what you see in your ever day reality? It is them versus us. Whether you call them the invisible government, ruling class, financial overlords, oligarchs, the powers that be, ruling elite, or owners; there are powerful wealthy men who call the shots in this global criminal enterprise. No amount of propaganda can cover up the physical, economic, social, and psychological descent afflicting our world. There’s a bad moon rising and trouble is on the way.

The 15% run since mid-November (or 60% annualized return) in the S&P 500 is attributed to the optics of tail-risk reduction and a renewed flood of central bank liquidity. However, as UBS notes, downside risks appear to be rising, with volatility increasing, investor sentiment readings starting to wane, and flows into equity funds turning negative. They believe, confirmed by the following five (*well seven) charts, that fundamentals remain relatively weak. On the 'top-down' macro-economic front, their US growth surprise index has rolled over, and consensus GDP expectations are down. On the 'bottom-up' earnings front, S&P 500 companies (ex-Financials) beat by 4.5% in 4Q but this followed a 6.1% downward revision coming into earnings season. Moreover, guidance has been weak, and revision trends remain negative. The consumer is suffering from near-term pressure, and recently, a number of companies have signaled near-term consumer softness attributed to higher tax rates, delayed refunds, and rising gas prices which perhaps explains why it has been 42 weeks without net positive EPS revisions.

"Mission Accomplished" - With CNBC now lost for countdown-able targets (though 20,000 is so close), we leave it to none other than Jim Cramer, quoting Stanley Druckenmiller, to sum up where we stand (oh and the following list of remarkable then-and-now macro, micro, and market variables), namely that "we all know it's going to end badly, but in the meantime we can make some money" - ZH translation: "just make sure to sell ahead of everyone else", just like everyone sold ahead of everyone else on October 11th 2007, the last time stocks were here...

• GDP Growth: Then +2.5%; Now +1.6%
• Regular Gas Price: Then $2.75; Now $3.73
• Americans Unemployed (in Labor Force): Then 6.7 million; Now 13.2 million
• Americans On Food Stamps: Then 26.9 million; Now 47.69 million
• Size of Fed's Balance Sheet: Then $0.89 trillion; Now $3.01 trillion
• US Debt as a Percentage of GDP: Then ~38%; Now 74.2%
• US Deficit (LTM): Then $97 billion; Now $975.6 billion
• Total US Debt Oustanding: Then $9.008 trillion; Now $16.43 trillion

It would appear from the chart below, that the world, in its infinitely capable manner, has not only managed to create 'wealth' from thin air, but can 'expect' growth in the future with no apparent impact on the price of the raw materials that will be needed to create that growth. Unless, of course, the growth that equities are discounting is central bank assets and joblessness...

'Buy-and-Hold'; Bonds-Schmonds. Sometimes a longer-term perspective is useful for context. Whether you are a safety-seeking, "some-return-is-better-than-no-return" bond-holder; or a "Jim Cramer said 'all clear' so I'm nuts deep in stocks" wannabe trader; the charts below at least provide from insight into why all that 'crazy' money might prefer the bond market to the stock market. Since rear-view-mirror investing appears the meme of the moment (and hope is now a strategy), it makes one wonder, when fixed income returns average 8.6% per annum for 33 years with a maximum 4% drawdown annually as opposed to stocks with a 8.9% per annum return and four 10%-plus annual drawdowns (and two 50% intra-period collapses within a decade). While we hold no judgment here, arguing that rates are so low they can't go any further is futile (ask Ben and see Japan) and applies just as well to equity multiples, margin expectations, and fundamentals. Context is king, be informed.

But the fake deadlines, the even more fake serial fiscal crises, it all came to an end with a whimper

Is "discretionary income" rapidly becoming a thing of the past for most American families?  Right now, there are a lot of signs that we are on the verge of a nightmarish consumer spending drought.  Incomes are down, taxes are up, many large retail chains are deeply struggling because of the lack of customers, and at this point nearly a quarter of all Americans have more credit card debt than money in the bank.  Considering the fact that consumer spending is such a large percentage of the U.S. economy, that is very bad news.  How will we ever have a sustained economic recovery if consumers don't have much money to spend?  Well, the truth is that we aren't ever going to have a sustained economic recovery.  In fact, this debt-fueled bubble of false hope that we are experiencing right now is as good as things are going to get.  Things are going to go downhill from here, and if you think that consumer spending is bad now, just wait until you see what happens over the next several years. The following are 16 signs that the middle class is rapidly running out of money...

As equity indices 'stabilize' ready for their CNBC-counted-down surge to new all-time highs and the holy grail of economic-growth-creating money-printing-fed inflationary-wealth-effect, we thought a blast from the past would 'help'...

"Wealth Effect"

Equities dead-cat-bounced today on minimal upside volume (and low average trade size) to get the S&P back to unchanged for the month. Broadly speaking risk-assets stayed well correlated with stocks though bonds and the USD looked somewhat dead trading in a very small range given recent shenanigans. Gold and Silver had their best day of the year so far as the former broke back over $1600 (and has now seen the best 4-day jump in 6 months). It seems Bernanke's relative dovishness is losing its equity appeal (as gap prices continue to rise) but precious metals (post China new year) have rediscovered some central bank balance sheet reality. Homebuilders, buoyed by the craziest seasonal adjustments ever to sales, swung from worst-to-first on the week. Equities tracked spot VIX most of the day but even VIX did not fully partake of the exuberance in the last hour or so. AAPL's rumor-driven tom-foolery pushed it handily up to yesterday's closing VWAP +1.4% and supported the broad equity market (just as HD did in the Dow). Despite the best efforts of the media, putting lipstick on this pig day after yesterday is a push in our view.

Behold the sheer austerity-inducing horror and pure, mortal terror of the, dum dum dum, SEKWESTER!!! Do not pass go and proceed straight to Armageddon.