Jim Cramer

Behold the sheer austerity-inducing horror and pure, mortal terror of the, dum dum dum, SEKWESTER!!! Do not pass go and proceed straight to Armageddon.

It would appear that even though the relative dovishness of the FOMC has increased, a realization that the party has to stop sometime is dawning on the PhDs - though for now, the printing will continue until morale improves...

• SEVERAL FOMC PARTICIPANTS SAID EASING MAY PROMPT EXCESSIVE RISK
• MANY FOMC PARTICIPANTS VOICED CONCERN ABOUT RISKS OF MORE QE
• SEVERAL ON FOMC SAID FED SHOULD BE PREPARED TO VARY PACE OF QE
• FOMC PARTICIPANTS SAID ECONOMY WAS ON 'MODERATE GROWTH PATH'
• SEVERAL FOMC PARTICIPANTS SAW IMPROVED U.S. CREDIT CONDITIONS
• A NUMBER OF FED OFFICIALS SAID TAPERING QE MAY BECOME NECESSARY

Pre-FOMC: ES 1521.00, 10Y 2.01%, EUR 1.3337, Gold $1580, WTI $94.18

While the initial response to last week's YHOO earnings was afterhours euphoria all of which fizzled in the first hours of trading, sentiment on the firm which has yet to do more than merely promise may sour in the coming days even more following news late on Friday that the company's formerly staunchest advocate, Third Point's Dan Loeb sold some 15% of his stake, or 11 million of 73 million shares on Thursday and Friday at a price between $19.68 and $19.70. The remaining stake is now 62 million shares, which means Third Point is now longer the firm's largest institutional holder with a 6.17% stake, but drops to 4th place behind Capital Group and above Vanguard, who own 67 and 48.9 million shares respectively. The reason given for these opportunistic sales is that they were "motivated by Third Point`s desire to maintain a roughly consistent percentage holding of Yahoo`s outstanding shares as the company pursues its $5 billion buy-back authorization." Of course considering the $1.5 billion in shares that YHOO has actually bought back represent some 6.5% of the outstanding, one is a little confused how a 15% stake reduction is hedged relative to an actual buyback that is some 60% smaller. Does this mean another 15% stake cut in Q1 when YHOO, supposedly, buys back another $1.5 billion?

One is real, the other, like the market, is completely fabricated.

At the heart of it, visualizing the record $3 Trillion Dollar Federal Reserve balance-sheet is practically impossible. However, in two simple charts we can easily visualize what impact that gargantuan amount of printed cash has had on the 'real' economy and the 'real' market via Bernanke's magic wealth-effect. Presented with nothing to add...

It is a well-known phenomenon that quiet markets, low volatility and a lack of visible risks on the horizon can lead to complacence and increasingly dangerous, leveraged positions. In doing so, these market conditions set the stage for the next cycle of deleveraging and losses. What has also become apparent is a predictable behavioral response to this cycle: when the markets experience large losses, tail risk hedging comes back into fashion; on the other hand, when markets are quiet, investors can quickly forget the pain suffered during prior crises. As PIMCO's Vineer Bhansali points out, the current hedging characteristics are comparable to 1/15/2008, right before the crisis.  He adds that, for many investors, it paid to have tail hedges then. If investors believe we are still investing in a dangerous, potentially even more dangerous, environment, they should consider hedging; adding that in their view, tail hedging is not just a trade, but an asset allocation decision for robust portfolio construction. In this light, today’s valuation levels make it easy to be countercyclical and add to tail hedges. Perhaps today's VIX-SPX decoupling is the first sign?

We are now four-for-four (five-for-five if we include the drastic downward revisions in the Chicago PMI) for regional Fed business outlooks taking a serious (and consistent) turn for the worse. Kansas Fed manufacturing just missed expectations turning negative once again. Amid the sub-indices (which were broadly weak) was a plunge in employment as it fell to August 2009 levels. This weakness in Kansas follows Richmond's quadruple dip, Empire State's weakness, and Philly's major miss and in aggregate suggests a very weak ISM to come. Of course, all of this flies in the face of today's US PMI which beat expectations and pushed to recent highs.

While much has been made of the seemingly paradoxical stability of railroad traffic as the broad economy stagnates (and turns down - as we discussed yesterday), it appears the little train that could for the last four years has finally decided it can't anymore. Of course, there is an obvious cyclicality to the pattern but still the unprecedented plunge in rail traffic this week must be somewhat concerning.

Back in late August, we presented a chart whose foresight and accuracy turned out to be so spot on, it scared even us. We asked: "With Apple overtaking Microsoft's 'peak-market-cap' and becoming the most 'valuable' company ever traded, we thought a reflection on what humans (as opposed to machines programmed by humans) did the last time a world-changing technology company went ubiquitous. Comparing AAPL's last few years to the run-up in MSFT's peak in 1999..." Or, in other words, "is it different this time?" Turns out, the answer is, No. It was not different this time. It never is.

By order of their various 'independent' masters, the world's central banks have "got to work" over the past few years. Running the printing presses under the guise of various multi-syllabic programs designed to optically lower interest rates and feed fungible resources to its banks - that will inevitably (surely) flow to the real economy and make everything right with the world. Well, perhaps the following chart will explain just good a "job" they are doing with that real-world real-economy recovery...

A total of 22 companies, 4% of the S&P 500 market cap, have reported 4Q12 results. Of these, 64% have topped revenue estimates and 68% topped earnings estimates (considerably lower than average). Aggregate earnings results have exceeded estimates by 1%, revenues have missed by 0.5%, and blended margins are down 12bps y/y. As Barclays' Barry Knapp notes, the last several quarters, earnings seasons have generally been characterized by revenue misses, earnings beats (but by a shrinking amount), and negative guidance; as a result, there has been a negative skew to stock prices. In other words, in the immediate  aftermath of the report, earnings beats are marginally outperforming the market, while misses get hammered, primarily due to weak forward guidance. The sustainability of earnings growth remains key given the weak top-line environment and these three self-explanatory charts should hopefully put some fundamental color around the perspective that earnings season will be a negative for the market overall.

Things change fast in the technology world. 

Despite the fact that myself and everyone else acting like they know what lays ahead are proven wrong time and time again, we continue to make predictions about the future. It makes us feel like we have some control, when we don’t. The world is too complex, too big, too corrupt, too lost in theories and delusions, and too dependent upon too many leaders with too few brains to be able to predict what will happen next. This is the time of year when all the “experts” will be making their 2013 predictions - but few will address where they were wrong in previous predictions. I’m more interested in why I was wrong. It seems I always underestimate the ability of sociopathic central bankers and their willingness to destroy the lives of hundreds of millions to benefit their oligarch masters. I always underestimate the rampant corruption that permeates Washington DC and the executive suites in mega-corporations across the land. And I always overestimate the intelligence, civic mindedness, and ability to understand math of the ignorant masses that pass for citizens in this country. It seems that issuing trillions of new debt to pay off trillions of bad debt, government sanctioned accounting fraud, mainstream media propaganda, government data manipulation and a populace blinded by mass delusion can stave off the inevitable consequences of an unsustainable economic system. Will 2013 be the year it all collapses in a flaming heap of rubble? I don’t know. Maybe you should ask an “expert”.

Presented with no comment.

From Gas Prices to Food Stamps; from 'Bulk Ammo' to Consumer Confidence; and from Earnings to Economic Data, these 12 charts of the 12 months of 2012 are definitely Not Jim Cramer's.