Jim Cramer

Ben Bernanke can now add another headline to his impressive resume... Fed Chair... Blogger... and writer of fiction. As AP reports, Blogger Ben's memoir will be released in October, and the title will be "The Courage To Act," apparently inspired by the Fed's "moral courage" in the face of "bitter criticism and condemnation." While we thought perhaps "The Courage To Print" was more appropriate, it appears the book is non-fiction and thus, we suggest, the title needs an additional word of clarification: "The Courage To Act ........."

And against this disatsrous backdrop… investors are completely bullish!

Barron’s should have published its gushing cover story on Jamie Dimon’s stewardship of JPMorgan today – as an April Fool’s joke.

US Manufacturing PMI beat expectations, printing 55.7 up from 55.3 prior to its highest since Oct 2014, once again flying in the face of the collapse in US hard-data-base macro. More in line with the underlying reality, Feb Construction Spending dropped for the 3rd month of the last 4 and March ISM Manufacturing tumbled to 51.5, missing expectations of 52.5, to its lowest since May 2013. Under the covers, it is even uglier with the lowest New Orders since Jan 2014 as US Manufacturing data has missed 5 of the last 7 months and dropped for 5 months in a row - which hasn't happened since 2008.

Because it could never be just plain-old Keynesian-doctrine-destroying, debt-saturated, economic weakness...

Janet Yellen noted that everything was awesome and that stocks were now slightly "on the high side" of their historical range. It appears no one showed her the Russell 2000 which has a valuation multiple of just about 90x LTM earnings (as reported by the 2000 companies which comprise the index, and which were certified as accurate by 4,000 CEOs and CFOs on penalty of jail time). The mystery of how the Fed remains so stubbornly bubble blind - just like it did during the dotcom and housing bubbles - is thus revealed. The self-evident reason is that the purported geniuses who comprise our monetary politburo drink the Wall Street Cool-Aid about forward ex-items EPS. The Fed is driving a two-ton bubble machine, but has no clue that it has become a financial death trap.

In the next FOMC projection slide deck, Janet Yellen should just show the following "dots" chart. It may well be the first time in history that the Fed has actually made an accurate forecast.

What the Fed just said is the following: "it wasn't the snow, it was the economy." End Result: Goodbye "recovery", hello stock surge.

Evan as The "boxed-in" Fed nears the vinegar strokes of its easing cycle, today's statement continued to offer something for everyone (hawks, doves, bulls, & bears) to hold onto:

• *FED DROPS PATIENT STANCE ON INTEREST-RATE RISE GUIDANCE (hawk)
  
• *FED SAYS ECONOMY `HAS MODERATED SOMEWHAT,' JOB MARKET IMPROVED (dove)
  
• *FED SEES 2015 GDP GROWTH OF 2.3%-2.7% VS 2.6%-3% DEC. EST. (dove)
  
• *FED WANTS TO BE `REASONABLY CONFIDENT' ON INFLATION FOR LIFTOFF (hawk)

So, despite previous Fed promises, we have seen dismal macro data, no consumption gain from low gas prices, and USD strength headwinds; and yet, as they shift growth expectations in their dot plot, we're supposed to believe that. The bottom line: Fed to Markets: "you're on your own"-ish: undertainty is back. Full redline below...

Pre-FOMC: S&P Futs 2059, EUR 1.0650, 10Y 2.05%, Gold $1152

We're gonna need moar words!!

In what most traders dubbed an "extremely disappointing" performance, stocks ended Monday's session with modest gains of 1.35%... "Honestly, what more could the market ask for'?" queried one frustrated floor trader. "When the market can't gain at least 2% on disappointing manufacturing and housing data, something is very wrong."

Suddenly the narrative that “everything is awesome” is showing to not be as “awesome” as it was first proclaimed. Merely a few months have passed since the ending of QE and praises of awesomeness everywhere are morphing into questions more akin to “Oh no: not again!” And with that we are now watching those who pushed, pulled, and levitated that narrative scramble desperately to push another narrative back onto the stage that worked so many times before: “Every sell off over the last 6 years has shown to be a profitable buying opportunity.” i.e., Just buy the dip (JBTFD). Yet it would seem these dips; are far different.

• Again as first reported here: Record U.S. Oil Glut May Fill Storage, Cut Prices (BBG)
• IEA sees renewed pressure on oil prices as glut worsens (Reuters)
• No EU unanimity on renewing Russia economic sanctions (Reuters)
• Tsipras says Greece doing its part in euro zone deal (Reuters)
• ECB Set to Buy Fewer Bonds as Price Gains Ease Crunch (BBG)
• These Americans Are Getting Rich Trading Derivatives Banned in the U.S. (BBG)
• U.S. 2015 profits forecast to grow 1.7 percent; oil, dollar are concerns (Reuters) - in a month this will say "decline"
• Manhunt for shooting suspects grinds on in Ferguson, Missouri (Reuters)