Jim Cramer

Janet's direct line..

So much for that wall of worry...

Despite a collapse in US macro data in February, Markit somehow managed to conjure a better than expected 55.1 print for US Manufacturing PMI. Under the covers employment creation was the slowest since July and inflationary pressures loom as selling prices rose notably. ISM Manufacturing printed 52.9 - a small miss vs 53.0 expectations - down for the 4th month in a row to 13-month lows, with employment at its weakest since June 2013. Construction spending's modest rebound in (seemingly un-weather-affected) December (after dropping in November) has been destroyed with a 1.1% drop in January (against expectations of 0.3% rise) for the biggest drop in 8 months.

While the divergence between macro data 'dismalness' and equity price exuberance is by now well known, there is a greater threat looming to the rampapalooza that is underway. As forward Price-to-Earnings ratios have soared in the last year (aided and abetted - as Alan Greenspan explained - solely by The Fed's largesse) so bottom-up earnings growth expectations have cratered. So much so that veteran stock market investors and traders now see the divergence between multiple 'hope' and growth 'reality' as "ridiculous." Just how ridiculous? Worse than 1987, 2002, and 2011, when stocks fell over 20% upon realization of reality.

On the day when the MSCI World Stock Index hits a fresh record high - enthused by the exuberance of the US markets - we thought it more than a little ironic that Global GDP growth expectations for 2015 just hit a fresh record low...

It's fact-checking time once again. Having questioned the credibility of Dallas Fed's Richard Fisher previously, we thought this morning's comments by St.Louis Fed's Jim Bullard were worth investigating:

*DOLLAR EFFECTS ARE MARGINAL ON U.S. ECONOMY, SHOULDN'T INHIBIT GROWTH, FED'S BULLARD SAYS

Which just seems odd given the rest of the world's competitive devaluation efforts to 'improve' their economies. What we found will not surprise... but do not show this chart to Bullard.

While Crude Oil and Dr. Copper are often cited as economic indicators, as we noted previously, in fact Lumber prices are the most correlated with ISM and GDP of all industrial commodities (h/t @Not_Jim_Cramer). That is a problem. Lumber prices are tumbling - breaking to 18-month lows today. We have seen this picture before, and it did not end well...

It's different this time...

We know, we know... volume doesn't matter... but if "There Is No Alternative" and there is mountains of "money on the sidelines" then why is average trade size plunging (cough algos cough) and volume collapsing in lockstep with each and every new record high in stocks?

"X" continues to mark the spot of the death of global investor rationality...

"Walls of worry"... seem to be crumbling...