• Marc To Market
    08/29/2015 - 10:18
    Dollar recovered from the exaggerated panic at the start of last week.  Outlook is still constructive.  Here is an overview of the technical condition of currencies, bonds, oil , and S&...

Apple

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"It Feels Like 1997" Warns Art Cashin, "Watch High Yield"





"It's not necessarily out of control yet. But if they do not provide some stability pretty soon it will begin to affect not only the markets over there, but - as we saw today and somewhat last week - it affects markets all around the world. Financial Markets are correlated. We learned that back in 2008 When the fall of Lehman spread all around the globe."

 
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BTFD?





The bubble headed bimbos and brainless stock touting twits will be in ecstasy today as the ever predictable rebound is under way. The market will soar by over 500 points at the opening as the excuse of the day is China’s desperate interest rate cut to try and stem their downward spiraling economy and markets. The Wall Street captured boob tube brigade will tell their almost non-existent viewership that all is well. The terrifying plunge is in the past. The economy is great. Housing is strong. Stocks are now a bargain. It’s the best time to buy. Now here are some facts...

 
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Hedge Fund Hotel California: Smart Money Darlings Crash Up To 42% In One Week





While the "hedge fund" hotel strategy works on the way up, when everyone makes roughly the same profits, it is on the way down when these hedge fund hotels become "Hotel California" - hedge funds can check out, and sometimes they can even leave... with massive losses. According to a Bloomberg analysis, many of these hedge fund hotel stocks, or companies where hedge funds hold a combined stake of at least 25%, suffered declines of as much as 42 percent in the recent stock market rout.

 
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Frontrunning: August 25





  • China’s Central Bank Cuts Interest Rates (WSJ)
  • Chinese Stocks Crash Again to Extend Biggest Plunge Since 1996 (BBG)
  • China cuts rates, reserve ratio to aid economy as stocks sink (Reuters)
  • Wall St. suffers worst day in four years, S&P confirms correction (Reuters)
  • Europe's Stocks Head for Best Day Since 2011 (BBG)
  • Market turmoil clouds Fed rate outlook (FT)
  • For All Its Heft, China’s Economy Is a Black Box (WSJ)
 
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Paul Craig Roberts: Central Banks Have Become A Corrupting Force





As asset bubbles are in the way of the Fed’s policy, a decline in stock prices removes the equity market bubble and enables the Fed to print more money and start the process up again. On the other hand, the stock market decline could indicate that the players in the market have comprehended that the stock market is an artificially inflated bubble that has no real basis. Once the psychology is destroyed, flight sets in.

 
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Did Tim Cook Violate Regulation "Fair Disclosure" By Emailing Jim Cramer To Save AAPL Stock This Morning





Earlier today, as AAPL stock was plummeting and had lost a whopping $75 billion in market cap, dropping as low as $92/share, CNBC's Jim Cramer pulled a rabit out of a hat, or in this case a previously undisclosed email out of his inbox. An email from AAPL CEO Tim Cook which may have well be instrument in saving AAPL some $80 billion in market cap. An email which may also have been a rather blatant Reg FD violation.

 
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Futures Stumble Out Of The Gate, Slide 0.6% On Lack Of Chinese RRR Cut: What Happens Next?





On Friday, ahead of the closing stock rout, we forecast that the biggest risk for anyone staying long over the weekend was a disappointment out of China, where the sellside had gotten so excited that a 50-100bps RRR cut was imminent, that the lack of one would surely send futures sliding. Sure enough, as we noted earlier today, much to everyone's surprise and disappointment, the PBOC did nothing (for reasons we speculated upon earlier). Which bring us to this evening's S&P futures, which opened for trading minutes ago, and as expected, gapped by over 0.6% after the Chinese disappointment, down 13 points to 1958 and looking quite heavy.

 
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What Does The Fed Do Now? The FOMC Decision Tree





The $64,000,000,000,000 question: what does the Fed now do? One attempt at an explanation taking into account last week's market plunge comes from Nomura, which provides a "2015 Scenario Analysis" in which it "breaks down various monetary policy (rate hike options) and rates market implications ahead."

 
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China & The Decline In Quality (And Soon In Profits)





The era of reaping stupendous profits from low-quality goods produced by low-cost labor in a lax anything-goes regulatory system are ending, not as a result of policy changes but as a result of far deeper structural changes. Anyone thinking China, Inc. and Corporate America will emerge unscathed is living in Fantasyland.

 
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These Are The "People" That Really Run Your State





"Who" really runs your state?...

 
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Frontrunning: August 17





  • Oil moves nearer six-year low on Japan data, oversupply (Reuters)
  • Commodity Slide Spurs Treasuries as Emerging Markets Extend Drop (BBG)
  • Because 7 years is "just right" - BOE Official Says Don’t Wait Too Long on Rates (WSJ)
  • How Medicare Rewards Copious Nursing-Home Therapy (WSJ)
  • Millennials Are Developing Parents’ Taste for Jaguars, Cadillacs (BBG) ... and even more debt
  • Mexican Billionaire’s Firms Swept Up in U.S. Probe of Citigroup (BBG)
 
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MS Boosts TSLA Price Target To $465, Days After Underwriting Stock Offering; Sees Tesla Bigger Than Ford And GM





Moments ago, Morgan Stanley did it again just as expected, only this time it at least followed protocol when it announced it is raising its price target on TSLA from $280 to a whopping $465, or just shy of $61 billion in implied market cap. Incidentally at this price TSLA would be the biggest US automaker, surpassing not only GM's $50bn in market capo, but also Ford's $60 billion.

 
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