"... As the tide of leverage goes out, the full extent of irresponsible lending becomes apparent. The previously virtuous cycle between risk spreads and fundamentals goes into reverse, with lower prices, defaults, and downgrades forcing leveraged investors to sell, leading to even lower prices."
So what happens to a market that’s balanced precariously atop the shares of a handful of “must own” companies when those companies lose their halos? Historically, the previously-strong sectors join the rest in a broad sell-off.
While the S&P languishes unchanged in 2015, these small groups of overwhelmingly propagandized stocks are up on average over 60%, but with a collective P/E of 45, they are not cheap (and perhaps should remember that when buying this momo, we are all Thanksgiving turkeys).
While US floor markets are closed for the Thanksgiving holiday (equity, rates and energy futures are open until 1pm Eastern), Europe and Asia (as well as US equity futures) were busy rebounding overnight on strength in the commodity complex following yesterday's news that China's metals producers have asked for a wholesale government bailout or the "QEmmodity" as we have dubbed it, for the first time since 2009, which together with news that China would soon start arresting "malicious metal sellers" has provided a push for commodity prices across the board.
Is Apple going to produce more electric vehicles ten years from now than BMW?
"The dealer market has collapsed, and all that's left are investors trading the same few bonds back and forth, leaving pricing services guessing with bigger and bigger margins of error on the real value of illiquid debt. That's the real problem. And it's not one the SEC can fix by targeting 'transcendent liquidity' in ETFs."
Following yesterday's dramatic geopolitical shock, U.S. equity index futures rise as Russia has not escalated the confrontation with Turkey as some had feared, while Asian shares fall, reversing earlier gains. European stocks are rallying and the euro is falling on the back of a Reuters report that the ECB is mulling new measures to prop up lending, although it’s not clear at this point what the real impact from these measures would be.
According to Goldman, "tech accounted for 50% of the overall S&P 500 expansion during the past five years (Apple is responsible for 20% of rise). Tech sector now has margins (18%) that are twice the overall market." That tremendous tech, but mostly AAPL-driven, margin growth has now ended. So can this torrid surge in tech margins continue? Goldman's answer is a resounding no.
- Turkey downs Russian warplane near Syria border, Moscow denies airspace violation (Reuters)
- Investors seek safety in bonds, yen after Turkey downs Russian jet (Reuters)
- Donald Trump Is Not Backing Down (BBG)
- Uber's Exposure May Grow as U.S. Drivers Seek 57.5 Cents a Mile (BBG)
- U.S. issues global travel alert as manhunt continues for Paris attackers (Reuters)
- Stung by Oil, Distressed-Debt Traders See Worst Losses Since '08 (BBG)
- French, U.S. Troops Enter Mali Hotel as Gunmen Hold Hostages (BBG)
- Top suspect seen on CCTV in metro during Paris attacks (Reuters)
- Paris Attacks’ Alleged Ringleader, Now Dead, Had Slipped Into Europe Unchecked (WSJ)
- Global shares march on as alarm bells ring for metals (Reuters)
- European Stocks Rise With Asian Shares as Zinc, Ringgit Advance (BBG)
- World leaders arrive for summit amid heavy security (Reuters)
According to Reuters, the suspects targeted in a pre-dawn raid in France were planning to attack the Quatre Temps on Thursday, the busiest mall in France located in the business district at La Defense. Meanwhile, WaPo, citing European intelligence officials, says Abdelhamid Abaaoud was killed in Wednesday's operation.
Editors Note: GoldCore believe that blockchain technology will revolutionise the world of finance, payments and money and may have an impact on the world on a scale of that of the internet. If you thought the “internet” was disruptive, well you ain't seen nothing yet ... the blockchain cometh!
The internet is in a very sad state. Recent measures introduced by governments around the world, including C-51, TPP, and previous bills introduced such as the Stop Online Piracy Act (SOPA), threaten the rights to a free and open internet. However, much less talked about is the current state of online advertising and how it's slowly eroding our rights to browse online through disabling content for those using ad-blockers, paywalls and invasive tactics to market products based on our browsing history.
"My guess is that we will have negative rates in Norway before there will be any talk of QE"...