Apple

• Euro-Region Debt Sales Top $29B This Week (Bloomberg)
• Greek Fury at Plan for EU Budget Control (FT)
• Greek "football players too poor to play", leagues running out of money, may file for bankruptcy (Spiegel)
• After insider trading scandal, Einhorn wins the battle: St. Joe Pares Back Its Florida Vision (WSJ)
• China Signals Limited Loosening as PBOC Bucks Forecast (Bloomberg)
• China's Wen: Govt Debt Risk "Controllable", Sets Reforms (Reuters)
• IMF Reviews China Currency's Value (WSJ)
• Watching, watching, watching: Japan PM Noda: To Respond To FX Moves "Appropriately" (WSJ)
• Cameron to Nod Through EU Treaty (FT)
• Gingrich Backer Sheldon Adelson Faces Questions About Chinese Business Affairs (Observer)

In this week's chartology from Goldman's David Kostin there is the usual plethora of useful data, but two slides deserve a very special mention because with 39% of the S&P already reporting Q4 data, the implication is quite dire. If Kostin is correct, then the corporate margin juggernaut, which recently hit an all time high in Q3 of 2011, and which has for all intents and purposes been the one offset to deteriorating economic conditions, recurring Fed stimuli to the economy aside, has officially peaked and is now rolling over. This has huge implications for virtually everything, as it means that after 3 years of layoffs, corporate America has finally cut through all the fat and is now officially chopping into muscle with every additional layoff. It also means that going forward no matter how many workers are laid off, the corporate margin rate wil not increase. Furthermore, if Bernanke or Draghi officially launch another inflationary easing episode which more than anything exports inflation to China, which in turn reexports it back to America in the form of rising COGS, margins will compress even more. In other words, the US economy, which sadly has been "defined" as the Russell 2000 and/or the DJIA, is tipping over. And with companies posting a near record low positive earnings surprise ratio, we are once again amazed how yet another Goldman team may have well called the absolute peak in the market with its long Russell call from two days ago.

• Greek Debt Wrangle May Pull Default Trigger (Bloomberg)
• Italy Sells Maximum EU11 Billion of Bills (Bloomberg)
• Romney Demands Gingrich Apology on Immigration (Bloomberg)
• China’s Residential Prices Need to Decline 30%, Lawmaker Says (Bloomberg)
• EU Red-Flags 'Volcker' (WSJ)
• EU Official Sees Bailout-Fund Boost (WSJ)
• EU Delays Bank Bond Writedown Plans Until Fiscal Crisis Abates (Bloomberg)
• Germany Poised to Woo U.K. With Transaction Tax Alternative (Bloomberg)
• Ahmadinejad: Iran Ready to Renew Nuclear Talks (Bloomberg)
• Monti Takes On Italian Bureaucracy in Latest Policy Push to Revamp Economy (Bloomberg)

Not sure what to make of a market that traded relatively poorly on strong apple earnings but managed to rip higher on a relatively neutral fed statement.

The advance reading of Q4 UK GDP released today came in at -0.2%, slightly below expectations, however many market participants had feared a worse outcome for the indicator, allowing the GBP to pare the losses made in the lead-up to the GDP announcement. The Bank of England minutes released today have shown that the MPC unanimously agreed to keep the UK rate at 0.5%, and maintain the volume of the APF, however they also revealed that some MPC members saw the need for further QE in the future. Despite higher than expected German IFO Business Climate data this morning, European indices are trading in negative territory, with technology and financial stocks suffering the highest losses. This has seen asset reallocations into safe havens, which has seen Bunds outperform for the morning.

In case one was wondering how the Goldman trading team was axed in Apple, we now know that they are pushing their inventory of stock in the name out of the door and to clients harder than ever, having just released a forecast with a $600 price target. However, with nearly 200 hedge fund holders in the name, and pregnant to the teeth in the stock, we fail to find who the incremental buyer of GS' AAPL stock will be.

• Angela Merkel casts doubt on saving Greece from financial meltdown (Guardian)
• Germany Rejects ‘Indecent’ Call to ECB on Greece, Meister Says (Bloomberg)
• Obama Calls for Higher Taxes on Wealthy (Bloomberg)
• Fed set to push back timing of eventual rate hike (Reuters)
• Recession Looms As UK Economy Shrinks By 0.2%, more than expected (SKY)
• King Says BOE Can Increase Bond Purchases If Needed to Meet Inflation Goal (Bloomberg)
• When One Quadrillion Yen is not enough: Japan's first trade deficit since 1980 raises debt doubts (Reuters)
• Sarkozy to quit if he loses poll (FT)
• U.S. Shifts Policy on Nuclear Pacts (WSJ)
• ECB under pressure over Greek bond hit (FT)

SOTU Post Mortem:

The best news possible: "Nothing will get done this year, or next year, or maybe even the year after that." Barack Hussein Obama
The worst news: Everything else.

Here is the text of President Barack Obama’s State of the Union Address as prepared for delivery at 9 p.m. ET. "Jobs" 33 vs. "Fat Cats" 0, Rich 3 vs Poor 1, Hope 2 vs Unicorns 0, Change 9 vs Tooth-Fairy 0, Mortgages 5 vs Apple 0, Main Street 1 vs Wall Street 3, China 4 vs Europe 1; DEBT CEILING 0

Without trying to take away from Apple's blow out earnings, a quick look at the Apple data sheet breaking down revenue and unit sales by geography points to something rather curious. While unit sales in Q4 were fine, with a modest drop in the US, even as European sales posted the biggest sequential increase on record at 306K (from 1,176K to 1,482K), one wonders just how sustainable this in itself is, now that Europe has officially entered a recession, especially since the incremental revenue in Europe in Q4 was also a record $3.9 billion (of the total $18 billion sequential increase). Yet nowhere was this quarterly surge more evident than in the US: the increase in American sales was a unprecedented $8.1 billion sequentially, from $9.7 billion to $17.7 billion (which means margins are blowing out: how long until FoxConn has something to say about this?). While most of this is to be attributed to the iPhone 4S launch in the quarter, the question then is just how sustainable is the new trendline growth if one normalizes for product cadence (yes, we hate that word too), or the ability of the company to reinvent itself quarter after quarter. With the iPad 3 expected this quarter, and the iPhone 5 the next, will Apple be a "product to product" company going forward, and what happens with baseline revenue growth ex-new product innovation? Or how about self-cannibalization? Not like we are saying anything new here, but the value of Apple is in product innovation, which is nowhere better seen than in the sequential Q4 revenue. Will this innovation ability stay with the new management? And how much of the Q4 sales surge was, sad to say it, the Steve Jobs death factor? Finally, the fact that in Q4 AsiaPac revenues were less than a year prior, does this mean that even with the 4S release, Apple has now lost the Asian market to cheaper, pirated, or Google-based competition? Finally, in a tried and true tradition of instant gratification (credit funded naturally), how much of the explosion in the December 31 quarter sales is simply a "cash for clunker"-like forward shifted of purchases that would have otherwise happened in the first quarter of 2012?

After generating $37.9 billion in cash, short and long-term equivalents in 2011, and a record $16 billion in Q4 alone (of which $11.8 billion in Long-Term Marketable Securities: Treasurys? Pretty soon Apple will be a bigger monetization force than the Fed), the company's total cash and equivalents horde is now just shy of $100 billion, or $97.6 billion. And with cash growing at 20% in the quarter, extrapolating into the future, means that the company will hit $1 trillion in cash by Q1 2015. Looked at otherwise, if Apple were a country, and its cash was equivalent to GDP, it would rank as the world's 58th largest economy, above such countries as Slovakia, Iraq, Luxembourg, and Syria. At least now we know where all that money that is not going to pay mortgages, is going. Next question: how long until uncle Sam demands windfall tax, or until the FoxConn workers learn to read press releases and politely request a pay raise or they all jump?

The suspense can now end

• Revenues of $46.33 billion, expected at $38.99 billion
• EPS of $13.87, expected at $10.14
• APPLE SEES 2Q REV. ABOUT $32.5B, EST. $31.87B
• APPLE SEES 2Q EPS ABOUT $8.50, EST. $7.96
• APPLE 1Q IPAD UNITS SOLD 15.43MLN , UP 111%
• APPLE 1Q GROSS MARGIN 44.7%, EST. 40.8%             
• APPLE SOLD 5.2 MILLION MACS DURING QTR, EST. 5.1M
• APPLE SOLD 15.4 MILLION IPODS IN QTR, EST. 13.9M
• APPLE SOLD 37.04 MILLION IPHONES IN THE QUARTER, REPRESENTING 128 PERCENT UNIT GROWTH
• APPLE GENERATES $17.5 BILLION IN CASH FLOW IN THE QUARTER

As of Q3 2011, the citizens of less than 20% of the countries involved in Nielsen's Global Consumer Confidence, Concerns, and Spending Intentions Survey were on average confident in their future economic confidence. Not surprisingly, Nic Colas of ConvergEx points out, six were in Asia, the least confident were in Eastern and Peripheral European nations, and furthermore overall global consumer confidence remains 9.3% below 2H 2006 (and 6.4% below Q4 2010) readings as the global economy still has a long way to get its 'mojo' back. Colas points to the fact that 'confidence is an essential lubricant of any capitalist-based system' and one of the key challenges that worst hit Europe (and other regions and nations) face is capital markets that are assessing the long shadow of the Financial Crisis of 2007-2008 and the ongoing European sovereign debt crisis impact on the world's Consumer Confidence.

GroupThink! GroupThink! GroupThink!

• IMF begging ECB for cash, ECB begging Germany for cash... all is well: Lagarde Says Europe Must Boost Firewall (WSJ)
• More rumors of inflation targeting: Bernanke near inflation target prize, but jobs a concern (Reuters)
• A Sears Wager Stings at Goldman (WSJ)
• Draghi Makes Euro Favorite for Most-Profitable Carry Trades With Rate Cuts (Bloomberg)
• Euro zone finance ministers to rule on Greek debt talks (Reuters)
• "Reserve Currency" - Iran Said to Seek Yen Oil Payments From India Amid Sanctions (Bloomberg)
• Hackers-for-Hire Are Easy to Find (WSJ)
• Florida’s Republican Primary Pits Romney Money Against Gingrich Momentum (Bloomberg)
• YouTube hits 4 billion daily video views (Reuters)
• Carnival CEO Lies Low After Wreck (WSJ)
• Fed Forecasts Could Awaken Treasurys (WSJ)

After months of increasingly aggressive shareholder activism, the long-standing co-CEOs (Balisillie and Lazaridis) of the struggling Blackberry maker have resigned as the former COO takes over as CEO and former-exchange executive takes over as chairperson.

• *RESEARCH IN MOTION CO-CEOS/CHAIRMEN QUIT POSTS :RIM CN, AAPL US
• *RIM NAMES BARBARA STYMIEST INDEPENDENT BOARD CHAIRMAN   :RIM CN
• *RESEARCH IN MOTION NAMES THORSTEN HEINS PRESIDENT, CEO

Research In Motion has clearly morphed into Activism-in-Motion as the Globe and Mail reports: "The catalyst for change appears to have been the entry of a new personality: reserved but revered investor Prem Watsa, the CEO of Fairfax Financial. Mr. Watsa, who has been called Canada’s Warren Buffett." While chatter appears to be that change-is-good, G&M go on to note, "Critics of the company’s performance may not be immediately impressed by a management shakeup that involves so little fresh blood." as the Playbook fiasco is fresh in many people's minds but perhaps new CEO's Heins view that "We are not at a point where we try to define a strategy, that’s done" will not hearten those looking for real change.