Volkswagen

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Frontrunning: August 20





  • Ferguson at Turning Point After Night of Relative Calm (BBG)
  • Gaza war rages on, Hamas says Israel tried to kill its military chief (Reuters)
  • Surge in Putin Patriotism Masks Pain of Sanctions (BBG)
  • Bank of England splits over rate hike for first time in 3 years (Reuters)
  • Putin Meeting Leaves Kiev With Tough Choices (WSJ)
  • European Gas Reverses Biggest Drop Since 2009 on Ukraine (BBG)
  • "Isolation"  Mongolia Seeks Economic Lifeline With Pivot to China, Russia (BBG)
  • Uber Picks David Plouffe to Wage Regulatory Fight (NYT)
  • China Levies Record Antitrust Fine on Japanese Firms (BBG)
 
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Futures Tumble Again On Global Equity Weakness





If yesterday's selloff catalysts were largely obvious, if long overdue, in the form of the record collapse of Espirito Santo coupled with the Argentina default, German companies warning vocally about Russian exposure, the ongoing geopolitical escalations, and topped off by a labor costs rising and concerns this can accelerate a hiking cycle, overnight's latest dump, which started in Europe and has carried over into US futures is less easily explained although yet another weak European PMI print across the board probably didn't help. However, one can hardly blame largely unreliable "soft data" for what is rapidly becoming the biggest selloff in months and in reality what the market may be worried about is today's payroll number, due out in 90 minutes, which could lead to big Treasury jitters if it comes above the 230K expected: in fact, today is one of those days when horrible news would surely be great news for the momentum algos.  Still, with futures down 0.6% at last check, it is worth noting that Treasurys are barely changed, as the great unrotation from stocks into bonds picks up and hence the great irony of any rate initiated sell off: should rates spike on growth/inflation concern, the concurrent equity selloff will once again push rates lower, and so on ad inf. Ain't central planning grand?

 
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Frontrunning: July 28





  • The market in one sentence: Buying on Dips Pays Most in Five Years as Stocks Rebound (BBG)
  • Europe subdued, Russia shares tumble on new sanctions (Reuters)
  • Chinese Data Don’t Add Up (WSJ)
  • Argentine Default Drama Nears Critical Stage (WSJ)
  • Global Pressure Mounts on Israel to End Gaza Fighting (BBG)
  • Ukraine troops advance as experts renew attempt to reach crash site (Reuters)
  • Prospects Brighten for Republicans to Reclaim a Senate Majority (WSJ)
  • Europe’s banking union faces legal challenge in Germany (FT)
  • Investors Bet on China's Large Property Developers (WSJ)
  • Hague court orders Russia to pay over $50 billion in Yukos case (Reuters)
 
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Frontrunning: July 18





  • Ukraine Says Malaysian Airliner Shot Down Near Russian Border (BBG)
  • Downing of airliner seen as pivotal moment in Ukraine crisis (Reuters)
  • Malaysian Air Flight Took Route Avoided by Qantas, Asiana (BBG)
  • Russian-Made Missile Hit Malaysia Jet, U.S. Officials Say (BBG)
  • Netanyahu Orders Military to Ready Wider Gaza Incursion (BBG)
  • Silvio Berlusconi Underage Sex Conviction Overturned (WSJ)
  • But... but... "economic patriotism" - AbbVie to Buy Shire for $54.8 Billion as Drug Deals Surge (BBG)
  • SEC targets 10 firms in high frequency trading probe - SEC document (Reuters)
  • Art bubble pop: Sotheby's to Lay Off 'Modest' Number of Employees (WSJ)
  • Moar Abenomics: Hermes Sales Trail Estimates as Japanese Revenue Declines (BBG)
 
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Frontrunning: July 8





  • Headline of the day: Complacency Breeds $2 Trillion of Junk as Sewage Funded (BBG)
  • Israel intensifies Gaza offensive after surge in rocket fire (Reuters)
  • Profits plunge at Vatican bank (FT)
  • Investors Are Buying Troubled Golf Courses and Giving Them Makeovers (NYT)
  • Pimco Dissidents Challenge Bill Gross in ‘Happy Kingdom (BBG)
  • That's a new one: Marks and Spencer blames new website for sales drop  (Reuters)
  • Iran's Supreme Leader calls for more enrichment capacity (Reuters)
  • Boeing Faces Long-Term Credit Risk if Ex-Im Bank Closed, S&P Says (WSJ) not to mention the collapse risk to US durable goods orders
  • U.K. Manufacturing Unexpectedly Slumps Most in 16 Months (BBG)
  • Some Still Lack Coverage Under Health Law (WSJ)
 
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Frontrunning: July 3





  • Obama Decries Big Bonuses at Bank Trading Desks as Risky  (BBG)
  • India central bank seeks to swap gold to improve reserves quality (Reuters)
  • There goes Q3 GDP: Arthur Strengthens to Become First Atlantic Hurricane (BBG)
  • Airports Serving U.S. Tighten Checks on Stealth-Bomb Threat (BBG)
  • Fear, cash shortages hinder fight against Ebola outbreak (Reuters)
  • Brent Declines as Libya Rebels Say Ports Are Open (BBG)
  • Shiites Train for Battle in Iraqi Holy City (WSJ)
  • Dimon’s Cancer Has 90% Cure Rate With Demanding Therapy (BBG)
  • Goldman says client data leaked, wants Google to delete email (Reuters)
  • ECB Watchers in the Dark Look to Draghi for Illumination (BBG)
 
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Frontrunning: June 25





  • Obama Administration Widens Export Potential for U.S. Oil (BBG)
  • WTI Pares Gains as U.S. Export Ruling Seen Limited (BBG)
  • Senator Cochran defeats Tea Party rival in Mississippi Republican runoff (Reuters)
  • Militants attack Iraq air base, U.S. assessment teams deploy (Reuters)
  • Maliki rules out national emergency govt (AFP)
  • Koch to Start EU Power Trading as It Plans LNG Expansion (BBG)
  • Obama Said to Ready Sanctions on Russian Industries (BBG)
  • Ghana Sends Plane With $3 Million to Calm World Cup Team (BBG)
  • Ghana’s First Hedge Fund Planned by Ex-Exchange Regulator (BBG)
  • SEC Is Gearing Up to Focus on Ratings Firms (WSJ)
  • Abe Declares Deflation End as Growth Plan Confronts Skeptics (BBG)
 
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Forget Ferrari, The $803,300 Red Flag L5 Is The New Must-Have Car In China





For the wealthy Chinese with 5 million Yuan (around $800,000) burning a hole in their pocket, there is a new must-have 'toy'. Instead of the latest Ferrari or Lambo, it is none other than the provocatively named "Red Flag L5" that is popping eyeballs and leaving the wealthy Chinese breathless...

 
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Sorry Janet: Technology Is Deflationary





We all know the Federal Reserve is terrified of deflation, because they keep telling us that deflation is the equivalent of death and inflation is the equivalent of oxygen. What they fail to mention is that inflation is only oxygen for debtors barely able to service their debt and those who profits from debt, i.e. bankers and financiers. For everyone earning a wage or salary, inflation is the equivalent of death by a thousand cuts and deflation is the elixir of life. When prices decline, our money goes further, i.e. our purchasing power increases. Only bankers, governments and other parasites that live off the carrion of debt fear deflation and try to destroy the purchasing power of wages with everything in their power.

 
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Frontrunning: April 11





  • Sensitive Market Data Leaked After Government Phone Call (WSJ)
  • This is a actual Bloomberg headline: China Fake Data to Skew More Export Numbers (BBG)
  • This is another actual BBG headline: U.S. as Global Growth Engine Putt-Putts Instead of Purring (BBG)
  • Ukraine wants to buy European gas to boost energy security (Reuters)
  • JPMorgan Profit Falls 19% on Trading, Mortgage Declines (BBG)
  • Record Europe Dividends Keep $2.8 Trillion From Factories (BBG)
  • Why is Goldman shutting down Sigma X: SEC eyes test that may lead to shift away from 'dark pools' (Reuters)
  • Ebola Outbreak Empties Hotels as West Africa Borders Closed (BBG)
  • Australian PM says searchers confident of position of MH370's black boxes (Reuters)
  • Gross Says El-Erian Should Explain Reason for Exit (BBG)
 
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China & Germany Sign Yuan-Settlement Pact And Obama Heads To Saudi Arabia





Lots of moves appear to be afoot on the macro front at the moment. Today's deal between the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) and Germany’s Bundesbank seems quite significant given the importance of Germany within the global economy generally and the E.U. specifically. And with that in mind, let’s not forget that Obama is currently in Saudi Arabia trying to restore ties with the Medieival Kingdom, i.e., he is trying to figure out a way to arm al-Qaeda in Syria without the American public finding out about it. It appears that becoming entrenched in a Syrian civil war is still very much on the table...  The months ahead should be very interesting to say the least.

 
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Frontrunning: March 19





  • How Putin Parried Obama's Overtures on Crimea (WSJ)
  • West Readies Tighter Sanctions After Russia Seals Crimea Claim (Bloomberg)
  • Putin says U.S. guided by 'the rule of the gun' in foreign policy (Reuters)
  • JPMorgan Said to Agree on Commodities Unit Sale to Mercuria (BBG)
  • Short Sellers Target Chinese Developers as Rout Deepens (BBG)
  • HFT finally under the spotlight: High-Speed Trading Firms Face New U.S. Scrutiny (WSJ)
  • Chinese Dollar Bond Investors Demand Higher Yields After Default (BBG)
  • According to Joe LaVorgna it's the snow's fault: Deutsche Bank Said to Plan Job Cuts at Investment Bank (BBG)
  • Israeli airstrikes kill 1 Syrian soldier, wound 7 (AP)
 
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A Tale Of Two Winters





Presenting the US car market this cold, stormy, sunny, dry, and rainless winter according to "The Haves... and The Have-Nots..."

 
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GM Channel Stuffing Rises To All Time High





Moments ago GM reported that February total sales in February dropped 1% Y/Y to 222,2014, beating expectations of a 7.7% drop (if the same beat was not matched by GM's key competitor Ford, whose February sales dropped 6.1%, below the 5.3% expected, and Volkswagen whose US sales tumbled 13.8%). The bounce was largely thanks to Buick sales which posted an 18.8% increase in February. However, the actual sales were largely irrelevant. What was notable is the following number: 805,769. This is the number of units in dealer inventory at month end. This was an increase from the 780,140 in January and is the largest ever channel stuffing print yet recorded by the post-bankruptcy GM in history.

 
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Chinese Housing Weakness Unable To Keep USDJPY-Driven Futures Lower





Asian equities are trading lower across the board on the back of some negative credit stories from China. Shanghai Securities News noted that ICBC and some other banks have curbed loans to developers in sectors such as steel and cement. Slower gains in home property prices in China’s tier 1 cities are also not helping sentiment. Beijing and Shenzhen prices rose 0.4% in January, which looks to be the slowest monthly gain since October 2012 according to Bloomberg. Elsewhere there are reports that a property developer in Hangzhou (Tier 2 city in China) is reducing its unit prices by 19%. Our property analysts noted that given the strong gains seen in Tier-1 and some bigger Tier-2 cities in 2013, a slowdown or negative trends in price growth should not be a surprise. Nevertheless, it has been a very weak day for Chinese and HK markets with the Shanghai Composite and the Hang Seng indices down -2.0% and -1.2% lower as we type. Across the region, bourses in Japan and Korea are down -1.0% and -0.6%, respectively.

 
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