• Sprott Money
    05/05/2016 - 06:02
    Why is a Deutsche Bank mouthpiece suggesting “negative retail deposit rates or perhaps wealth taxes”? The answer is to (supposedly) stimulate our economies.

Volkswagen

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Frontrunning: April 26





  • The Fed Is Meeting in April to Talk About June (BBG)
  • Global stocks, oil prices climb as investors ready for Fed (Reuters)
  • Apple Results to Show How Far iPhone Sales Have Fallen  (BBG)
  • On Election Eve for five states, Trump rips Cruz and Kasich (Reuters)
  • President Xi Jinping’s Most Dangerous Venture Yet: Remaking China’s Military (WSJ)
  • Oil's Recovery Inches Higher as 'Fracklog' Awaits Price Trigger (BBG)
 
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As Fed Meeting Begins Futures Are Flat In Sleepy Session; Apple Earnings On Deck





With the Fed decision just one day away, followed the very next day by the increasingly more irrational BOJ, stocks had no desire to make significant moves and overnight's boring session was the result, as European stocks and U.S. index futures rose modestly but mostly hugged the flatline while Asian declined 0.2% for a third day as raw-material shares declined and Tokyo equities slumped before central bank meetings in the U.S. and Japan this week. China’s stocks rose the most in almost two weeks, up 0.6% but failed to rise above 3000 on the Shanghai Composite, in thin trading.

 
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Futures Rebound Off Lows Following Chinese Intervention; Oil Dips Ahead Of Fed, BOJ





Futures are currently unchanged, but the E-mini was down as much as 12 points less than two hours earlier after the European open when this time it was up to the PBOC to intervene in global markets by pushing the Yuan higher (selling USDCNY via intermediary banks) sending global stocks sharply higher off session lows and leaving the S&P futures virtually unchanged. As Bloomberg reported, there has been increasing USD/CNY selling in afternoon session as Dollar Index edged lower. This is the PBOC entering the building and levitating stocks.

 
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The Volkswagen Car "Buy Back" Just Unleashed Havoc On The U.S. Car Market





Offering hundreds of thousands of buyers a chance to sell back their old VW or end their lease early (in lieu of fixing the car) will almost certainly flood the used-car market that is already on pace to hit record inventory levels in 2016.

 
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US Government "Agrees In Principle" With Volkswagen's $10 Billion-plus 'Sorry-We-Cheated' Compensation Plan





Judge Charles Breyer has confirmed that Volkswagen's $10 billion-plus plan to resolve claims by the U.S. government and lawsuits by American car owners over its pollution-cheating debacle has been 'agreed in principle' by the Justice Department and various other US agencies. The plan covers at least 480,000 cars in the US and over 600 lawsuits offering consumers flexibility including buybacks and "substantial compensation," but does not address fines or penalties.

 
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Futures, Crude Unchanged Ahead Of Draghi As Parabolic Move In Steel, Iron Ore Continues





One day after stocks were this close from hitting new all time highs on what have been either ok earnings, if looking at non-GAAP data, or atrocious earnings, based on GAAP, and where any oil headline is now immediately translated as bullish by the oil algos, so far futures are relatively flat, while European stocks were at their moments ago in anticipation of the latest ECB announcement due out in just one hour.  However, unlike last month's "quad-bazooka", this time the market expects far less from Draghi. “Having pulled put the monetary bazooka in March, the market is sensibly expecting no further policy measures from the ECB,”

 
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"We Express Deep Apologies" - Mitsubishi Admits Rigging Emissions Test Data





It's all fun and games until someone is caught cheating. That is the lesson that Volkswagen learned last fall, when the German car manufacturer was caught using software that could detect when an emissions test was taking place in order to give better results. Today, it looks like Mitsubishi Motors will learn that very same lesson. "We express deep apologies to all of our customers and stakeholders for this issue," Mitsubishi said in a statement, also saying that the company "conducted testing improperly to present better fuel consumption rates than the actual rates."

 
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Futures Fade As Chinese "Good News Is Bad News" For Fed, Oil Drops As Doha Concerns Emerge





Good news is still bad news after all. After last night's China 6.7% GDP print which while the lowest since Q1 2009, was in line with expectations, coupled with beats in IP, Fixed Asset Investment and Retail Sales (on the back of $1 trillion in total financing in Q1)  the sentiment this morning is that China has turned the corner (if only for the time being). And that's the problem, because while China was a good excuse for the Fed to interrupt its rate hike cycle as the biggest "global" threat, that is no longer the case if China has indeed resumed growing. As such Yellen no longer has a ready excuse to delay. This is precisely why futures are lower as of this moment, because suddenly the "scapegoat" narrative has evaporated.

 
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Frontrunning: April 13





  • Gloomy start to results season hits shares (Reuters)
  • Stocks Rise Around World as Commodities Advance; Bonds, Yen Drop (BBG)
  • Oil hits 2016 high above $43 on producer meeting hopes (Reuters)
  • Rosneft chief Igor Sechin says low oil prices will not last (FT)
  • Banks Face Massive New Headache on Oil Loans (WSJ)
  • Wells Fargo Misjudged the Risks of Energy Financing (BBG)
 
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Frontrunning: April 7





  • U.S. readies bank rule on shell companies amid 'Panama Papers' fury (Reuters)
  • Co-Founder of Mossack Fonseca Defends Law Firm at Center of ‘Panama Papers’ (WSJ)
  • Fed's Cautious Approach on April Rate Hike Raises Stakes for June (BBG)
  • Dollar sinks again after Fed remains cautious (Reuters)
  • New Tax Rules on Inversion Deals Are Met With Protest (WSJ)
  • Fed Chairs Since 1979 Offer Peek Into Central-Bank Philosophy (BBG)
 
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"The Cat Is Out Of The Bag" - In Interview Mossack Fonseca Founders Admit It's Over... To Rothschild's Delight





"The cat’s out of the bag,” Mossack said. “So now we have to deal with the aftermath"... an aftermath that will make the provider of the biggest new tax haven service in the world, Rothschild, extremely happy. 

 
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Auto Sales Disappoint Despite Surging Incentives, "Worrisome Trends Are Taking Hold"





Just as we predicted, it seems - despite the "everything is awesome" jobs data - that auto sales exuberance has hit the wall of credit saturation. Despite a surge in incentives in Q1, GM US auto sales rose just 0.6% (drastically lower than 6.0% rise expectations) and Ford rose 7.8% (missing expectations of a 9.4% surge). As J.D.Power notes "there are worrisome trends below the surface" of auto sales and with inventories at levels only seen once in the last 24 years (and tumbling used car prices), the automakers have a major problem if this is anything but 'transitory'.

 
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Frontrunning: March 30





  • Bad News Is Great News: Cautious Yellen drives world stocks near 2016 peaks (Reuters)
  • Yellen Spurs Global Stock Rally as Oil Rebounds, Dollar Tumbles (BBG)
  • Trump drops pledge to back Republican presidential nominee other than himself (Reuters)
  • Second judge says Clinton email setup may have been in 'bad faith' (Reuters)
  • Brussels Airport Remains Shut as Police Hunt Third Attacker (BBG)
 
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Frontrunning: March 18





  • Dow's Freakish Bounce Makes Investors Whole, Can't Erase Doubts (BBG)
  • R.I.P. Dollar Rally as Dovish Fed Spurs Worst Slump Since 2011 (BBG)
  • Global Currencies Soar, Defying Central Bankers (WSJ)
  • Oil hits 2016 high above $42 on production and demand outlook (Reuters)
  • The U.S. Is Exporting Its Oil Everywhere (BBG)
  • Hillary Clinton’s Allies Launch Plan to Undercut Donald Trump Now (WSJ)
 
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On Opex Day, It's All About The Dollar: Futures, Oil Levitate As USD Weakness Persists





It may be option expiration day (always leading to abnormal market activity) but it remains all about the weak dollar, which after crashing in the two days after the Fed's surprisingly dovish statement has put both the ECB and the BOJ in the very awkward position that shortly after both banks have drastically eased, the Euro and the Yen are now trading stronger relative to the dollar versus prior. As DB puts it, "the US Dollar has tumbled in a fairly impressive fashion since the FOMC on Wednesday with the Dollar spot index now down the most over a two-day period since 2009" which naturally hurts those countries who have been rushing to debase their own currencies against the USD.

 
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