Baltic Dry

Will drift.

Won’t help trading volumes…

Flattish to slightly lower US open. Drifting…

To be correct, it is a series of games of chicken, as next to the different sovereigns, the ESM/ESFS, the ECB, and why not the IMF, below the sovereigns there are the regions, be it in Spain or, as it stands, in Germany.

Time to panic? Or heading to the next whisky bar? Question is now what next? Somehow, we’ve been here before, but since then we had LTRO1, LTRO2, a (bank) bail-out, lots of European haggling and bickering… Hot Summer.

Still the divergent world views between equity and rates as during the last days.

EGBs better supported. Equities, too…

Spain held so so today, did overshoot 7%, but closed back below. The level itself is just symbolic; we all know…Fact is, Spanish funding is a costly thing.

Credit feeling slightly heavier than equities.

Middle East situation not really in the prices, as the tension in Syria is growing to new heights.

IMF annual review of EZ policies pitches a lot of already pitched ideas (QE, etc etc). No news

Nothing crisp from Ben – outside comments that “Europe is not close to having a long term solution”… Thanks for the thumb up!

Same story again: Recurrent picture of Hard Core grinding slightly tighter, Soft Core doubling down on that . Italy eventually better today but still over the 6% mark and Spain stuck over 6.75%. Equities just a tick weaker after all. Gold non-QE victim. EUR slammed through 22, but rebounded off 1.219.

Eventually quite resilient markets, given all the expectations…

Europe slipping into (light) ROff (and then out). Recurrent picture of Hard Core grinding tighter, Soft Core doubling down on that . Peripherals drifting wider with Italy eventually further off the 6% mark and Spain at 6.77%. Equities about unchanged after all.

BKO eventually closing on a historic -0.060% low.

Slow dragging day, if it wasn’t for the EUR jogging back and forth all the time. Something gotta move, I guess.

Nice equity (and commodities) close (DAX futures peaking at +2%).

Didn’t seem to impress EGBs, though. Nor credit, as it stands. No ROn mode behaviour here. And certainly not for Italy.

Can’t keep count of EGB all-time lows anymore: let’s simplify by saying that the whole non-Peripherals EGB universe up to 5 YRS has traded new all-time lows today. Under pressure… 

Continuous Spain running ahead , dragging Italy. Micro movements in equities and FX in total pip for tick sync.

Hmmm… Should we be impressed?

Not much going. Markets treading water in sync. Going RN, simply on lower levels. The calm before the Storm?

Minor data week, which will leave market action subject to jitters and rumours, technicals and charts. Tricky auctions of the week will be the one for EUR 8bn Italian bills on Thu and Italian 3 YRS to close the week on a Friday 13th (amount still open; were EUR 3bn 3s and 1.5bn 7 and 8 –year bonds last month). One will bear in mind that the holiday season, which slowly but surely starts to kick in, will further diminish what’s left of liquidity, exacerbating any given move.

So where does this leave us, knowing that despite all the exuberant highs and depressed lows, we had ended the previous week pretty much in unchanged matter?

Well, after a 10-day period that had not one but 2 bail-outs announced, a EU summit that initially seemed to good to be true, results-wise, and then ended up just being that, and a triplet of Central Bank cuts cum QE supportive measures, things don’t look much better…

Central Banks came, stood and delivered… just not much more, although the (nightly) POBC cut (1 YRS by 31 to 6% and deposits by 25bp to 3%) had not really been foreseen. Second Chinese cut in as many month, the last one having been on 07 Jun (as well just ahead of the ECB meeting, then by 25 basis points to 3.25% and 6.31%). The Chinese move was good for a small uptick, rapidly squashed by the European serving.

ECB quarter cut and BoE GBP 50bn additional QE to GBP 375bn both already in the valuation ramp-out of late.

Hmmm… Non-event.

Then came the ECB press conference…

Closing in unconvinced ROn mode. European equities taking their final lead from US peers. Peripherals pushing just the last basis points tighter. Note that these curves are finally steepening through renewed short end strength with both 2-3 YRS area down 20bp on the day. On the other hand, Core EGBs have not been driven into the wall, as one could have expected in full ROn modus. German 2 / 5 / 10s about unchanged from Friday.

Tug of war between wary optimists and tired pessimists? Glass half full or empty? Dusty diamonds, anyone?

Not a highly inspirational day to write about. Reduced volatility and very range-bound. Lack of real news flow. Action more in the financial people press, as it stands. And in EUR New Issues, as borrowers have come to learn that windows of opportunity, when seeing one, should be used. Knowing, too, that new issues will grind to an end probably as of the end of next week. Hence, EUR 7.5bn senior bank debt served in 2 days. Ce qui est pris n’est plus à prendre…