Baltic Dry
Shuffle Rewind 10-14 Dec " Lazy Sunday Afternoon " (Small Faces, 1968)
Submitted by AVFMS on 12/16/2012 08:52 -0500Bingo Bongo, Good News hailing, Sleepily digesting in the South to end Stuck… What an uninspiring week… Felt slow as a Sunday Afternoon– for 5 days in a row… The only thing that wasn’t lazy and laid back was the EUR.
14 Dec 2012 – “ Stuck in the Middle with You ” (Stealers Wheel, 1972)
Submitted by AVFMS on 12/14/2012 12:01 -0500Utterly boring Friday session, worsened by year end inactivity… PMI figures, which were actually needed on the more positive side to justify the latest levels in Risk were just so so in Europe. But, who cares? Periphery recovering further with Spain actually the best performer on the week (outside the bailed-out gang). US stuck despite better figures.
"Stuck in the Middle with You" (Bunds 1,35% unch; Spain 5,37% -1; Stoxx 2628 +0,2%; EUR 1,314 +60)
13 Dec 2012 – “ When It's Sleepy Time Down South ” (Louis Armstrong, 1931)
Submitted by AVFMS on 12/13/2012 11:54 -0500Markets getting back to some normality with the Periphery still recovering, although less today after the auctions, Bunds 5 wider on the week, Italy 10, but Spain 7 tighter across the curve from last Friday. Equities and Risk oblivious to that anyway and synching with the US. Getting difficult to find something crisp out there with reduced news flow and volatility. Excitement to be found in the US on FC developments, now that Greece, Spain and Italy are seemingly off the table and that the FED has moved to QE4.
"When It's Sleepy Time Down South" (Bunds 1,35% +1; Spain 5,38% +4; Stoxx 2622 -0,2%; EUR 1,308 +40)
Overnight Sentiment: The Printer Is Now In Draghi's Court
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/13/2012 06:45 -0500Why the lack of follow through? Because, according to preliminary desk talk, just as we predicted yesterday now that the Fed has reengaged the QEasing machine, the ECB will too have to intervene and ease on its own once again to push the EURUSD lower (as otherwise the internal devaluation for most European countries will be simply unbearable). Which means one thing: the time to drag the Spanish insolvency out of cryogenic sleep is coming, and if Rajoy still refuses to request a bailout, he will get some much needed assistance from Frankfurt to make up his mind, allowing the ECB to inject hundreds of billions into the market and in doing so to keep up with the Fed or else risk dropping too far behind in the global race to debase (with a footnote that in Europe, a drop in the currency always raises redenomination risk now and going forward).
Baltic Dry Plunges By Over 8% Overnight, Most Since 2008
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/12/2012 08:34 -0500
It has been a while since we looked at the Baltic Dry Index, which when normalizing for the excess glut in dry container ship supply (such as right now - 5 years after all the excess supply in the industry - has long been normalized), continues to be one of the best concurrent indicators of global shipping and trade. We look at it today, moments ago it just posted an epic 8.2% plunge, crashing from 900 to 826, or the biggest drop since 2008! Of course, conisdering the collapse in global trade confirmed in past days by both Chinese and US data, this should not come as a surprise, although we are certain it will merely bring out the BDIY apologists who tell us that supply and demand here (like in every other Fed-supported market) are completely uncorrelated.
The Housing Recovery: From REO-To-Rent To Containers-To-Condos
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/26/2012 12:21 -0500
With REO-to-Rent now yesterday's trade, the Baltic Dry Index stumbling along near its lows (along with a glut of containers), and a 'recovery' in US housing, what better than to leverage all of these themes; to wit, as ABC News reports, the first U.S. multi-family condo built of used shipping containers is slated to break ground in Detroit early next year. So forget Trailer Parks, now the increasingly mothballed ports of America will be wonderful waterfront property courtesy of your very own (slightly used) cargo container. One proponent of this 'cargotecture' warns that although containers can be bought for as little as $2,500, they should not be thought of as a low-cost housing solution. Tempted? We are sure; below are several current developments.
Service ISM Posts First Miss And Decline In 3 Months, Employment Index At Highest Since March
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/05/2012 10:16 -0500Moments ago the Non-manufacturing ISM came out, and in keeping with the theme of Baffle with BS, started last night when the China HSBC services PMI dropped even as the Manufacturing PMI from last week signaled the start of a "new recovery" or something (just don't look at the Baltic Dry, and definitely don't look at the endless barrage of reverse repos proving the PBOC will not engage in wholesale easing), it printed the first miss and decline in three month, coming at 54.2 on expectations of a 54.5 print and down from 55.1 previously. What is troubling is that while otherwise an economic miss such as this one would have been sufficient to ramp the bizarro marke, today it has merely sent ES to fresh intraday lows. Perhaps the reason is that unlike last week's Manufacturing ISM, whose headline was good but internals were not, this time it is the other way around with New Orders down but Employment rising from 51.1 to 54.9, the highest since March. Does this meant the Fed will prematurely end QEternity? Of course not, but the market appears to be shooting first, as usual, and asking questions later.
10 Oct 2012 – “ She Went Quietly ” (Charlie Winston, 2011)
Submitted by AVFMS on 10/10/2012 11:01 -0500Eerily quiet after yesterday’s post-ECOFIN cacophony…
No real take-away today: sometimes you need a breather and everyone agrees.
09 Oct 2012 – “ Wall Of Denial ” (Stevie Ray Vaughan, 1989)
Submitted by AVFMS on 10/09/2012 11:02 -0500Key take-aways from today were: The IMF is gloomy, so is Draghi. Banking Union is months away. ESM and OMT ready to go, but no one wants that first dance. Spain is analyzing.
Oh, and an iPhone is just that. A phone.
Nothing new, nowhere.
Didn't get fooled again yesterday, but still facing denial today...
08 Oct 2012 – “ Won't Get Fooled Again ” (The Who, 1971)
Submitted by AVFMS on 10/08/2012 10:59 -0500Some correction of Friday’s Bull trap: European Risk Off, EGB credit torsion and weaker equities.
Doubtful whether any fireworks will come out of the ECOFIN meeting.
Seems to be more about maintaining the relative market quietness and status-quo.
05 Oct 2012 – “ Let’s Work Together ” (Canned Heat, 1970)
Submitted by AVFMS on 10/05/2012 11:05 -0500What can be said? Rinse, repeat, rinse, repeat.
Everyone basking into the market truce provided by Super Mario. And taking some easy time off…
Friday afternoon Periphery squeeze barn stomp
04 Oct 2012 – “ So What? ” (Anti-Nowhere League, 1981)
Submitted by AVFMS on 10/04/2012 11:01 -0500On ECB Q&A: Yawn! Can’t always be a rainmaker and light fireworks every month.
Take-aways? None really.
So what?
03 Oct 2012 – “ Hit Me With Your Rhythm Stick ” (Ian Dury & The Blockheads, 1978)
Submitted by AVFMS on 10/03/2012 11:00 -0500Quiero un iPhone para salvar el Mundo! Looks like Spain actually enjoys the sovereign-regions-banks negative loop with no wish to cut the Gordian knot.
No European data tomorrow: Mario D, the floor is all yours, after Mariano D’s bond sales.
02 Oct 2012 – “ Jump, Jive N' Wail ” (Brian Setzer, 1998)
Submitted by AVFMS on 10/02/2012 10:48 -0500Wow! Good equity swings in Europe: Down about 1% to the morning lows, up nearly 2% to noon highs and tanking back over 1.25% into the close.
Core & Soft EGBs rather muted in volatility, closing by and large unchanged, with Periphery bonds running a separate path.
Again that decorrelation.
Jump, Jive & Wail…
01 Oct 2012 – “ Here Comes The Sun ” (The Beatles, 1969)
Submitted by AVFMS on 10/01/2012 10:52 -0500Getting caught in end of day divergence between recovering Bunds / UST and equities readying up a pre-close squeeze out.Note a rather muted, in line, Credit performance.
No real data anywhere tomorrow, so either the good spirits of recovery keep up their heads up – or not…
