CRE

Goldman's Top Strategist Reveals The Two Biggest Risks To The Market Today

"We’ve also seen a growing allocation of retail and institutional money into “premium chasing” quant strategies, including, for example, ETFs that sell equity vol. I think many of these developments are positive, but the associated market structure remains largely untested. So I would not rule out the risk of a glitch that triggers, say, a 5-10% correction."

Global Stock Meltup Sends Nikkei To 25 Year High

The global risk levitation continues, sending Asian stocks just shy of records, to the highest since November 2007 and Japan's Nikkei topped 22,750 - a level last seen in 1992 - while European shares and US equity futures were mixed, and the dollar rose across the board, gains accelerating through the European session with the EURUSD sumping below 1.16,

What Financial Conditions Tell Us (Two Charts & A Prediction)

"The poobahs at the Fed would like financial conditions to tighten, but the past year’s loosening in conditions - even as the Fed nudged policy rates higher - seems a happy coincidence... Eventually, policymakers should get their wish. Financial conditions, like many things in life, don’t remain winsome, warm and welcoming forever..."

FOMC Minutes Signal Balance Sheet Normalization Begins In September, Most Saw Inflation Pick Up

Since the July 26th 'nothingburger' FOMC statement, Nasdaq is down but bonds and bullion are higher as domestic politics and global war have trumped monetary machinations. All eyes in today's Minutes will be on any mention of inflation and the balance sheet. The Fed sees inflation "picking up over the next couple years" but this came before last week's dismal CPI/PPI data (and they noted "downside risks"), and confirmed that they will make a balance sheet move "at upcoming meeting."

Record Apartment Building-Boom Meets Reality: First CRE Decline Since The Great Recession

The Commercial Property Price Index (CPPI) by Green Street, which tracks the “prices at which commercial real estate transactions are currently being negotiated and contracted,” plateaued briefly in December through February and then started to decline. By June, it was below where it had been in June 2016 – the first year-over-year decline since the Great Recession.

Fed "Stress Test" Results Are Out: Everyone Passes Even As VIX Hits 70

Moments ago the Fed released the first phase of its annual stress test which, once again, found that all thirty-four of the US largest banks "passed", exceeding minimum projected capital and leverage ratios under severely adverse scenarios, based on their projected ability to withstand economic shocks

Valuations: It Is Different This Time

"Stock investors have been waiting on the Godot of growth for most of this century and one can’t help but wonder at what point they’ll get up and leave the theater..."