Apple

The world and their mum will be overjoyed all is fixed again in Spain and Apple can be bought safely as today's ramp-a-palooza in risk-assets indicates. However, the 100-pip run in EURUSD which 'correlated-ly' ramped everything did more damage than good in the long-run as Oil prices surged off their 'see QEternity inflation is only transitory' way. WTI topped $92 (up over 3% off yesterday's lows) as Gold and Silver surged on the day to end up around 0.25% on the week (in the face of a 0.25% strengthening in the USD on the week). JPY strength and moreover EUR's push dragged the USD 0.5% lower from yesterday's peak and provided just the lift to get the S&P back to Monday's lows, filled a gap in AAPL's chart and lifted the financials ETF briefly back up to unch from pre-FOMC. Volume and trade size was large as we ramped and drifted once we topped - which smells a lot like pros selling into a stop-run-driven strength. Equities pulled back into the close (even as VIX limped back under 15% down almost 2 vols today) catching down to risk-asset's slightly less ebullient perspective.

There was a time when student loans, now almost entirely funded by the US government, and thus a general obligation of all US taxpayers who however have no recourse to ever collect on any collateral, were spent on such trivial things as, well, higher education. Sadly, it appears that that is increasingly no longer the case. To wit: "feds accuse Newport man of using school loans on drugs, motorcyles, games and tattoos." At least no iPhone 3, 3S, 4, 4S or 5 was purchased using private and taxpayer cash.... in this case.

• Madrid Protesters March Again as Spain Braces for Cuts (Bloomberg)
• Euro Can Bear Fewer Members as Czech Leader Calls Greeks Victims (Bloomberg)
• Chinese Industrial Profits Fall 6.2% in Fifth Straight Drop (Bloomberg)
• China pours $58bn into money markets (FT)
• Beijing vows more measures on Diaoyu Islands (China Daily)
• Noda vows no compromise as Japan, China dig in on islands row (Reuters)
• Politico’s Paul Ryan Satire: The Joke’s on Them (Bloomberg)
• Electoral Drama Shifts to Ohio (WSJ)
• German opposition party targets banks (FT)
• Fed action triggers fear of new currency wars (FT)
• Ex-Credit Suisse CDO Boss Serageldin Is Arrested in U.K. (Bloomberg)
• Romney ‘I Dig It’ Trust Gives Heirs Triple Benefit (Bloomberg)

• China To Maintain Prudent Monetary Policy (China Daily)
• Why Exit Is An Option For Germany (FT)
• China-Japan Ministers Hold 'Severe' Talks As Spat Damages Trade (Bloomberg)
• Eurozone Deal Over Bank Bailout In Doubt (FT)
• UBS Co-Workers Knew of Fake Trades, Adoboli Told Lawyer (Bloomberg)
• Banks Seek Changes To Research Settlement (FT)
• Secession Crisis Heaps Pain On Spain (FT)
• SEC: NY Firm Allowed HFT Manipulation (Bloomberg) - busted 'providing liquidity'?
• Germany To Tap Brakes ON High-Speed Trading (WSJ)
• Rajoy Outlines Fresh Overhauls (WSJ)
• BBC Apologizes To Queen Over Radical Cleric Leak (Reuters)
• British Banks Step Back From Libor Role (WSJ)
• Obama Seeks To Recast Ties With Arab World (FT)

As the media distorts the truth and the facts, I fight back with the Anti RDFun (Reality Distortion Field Ultimate Nullifier). Apple is outgunned in the data space, its maps product is simply the first in a long string of mishaps as it tries to transform from hardware to data, like Google.

• China carrier a show of force as Japan tension festers (Reuters)
• Draghi Rally Lets Skeptics Dump Spain for Bunds (Bloomberg)
• China’s Central Bank Injects Record Funds to Ease Cash Crunch (Bloomberg)
• Obama warns Iran on nuclear bid, containment 'no option' (Reuters)
• When Would Bernanke’s Successor Raise Rates? (WSJ) that's easy - never
• Italy's Monti Downplays Sovereignty Risk (WSJ)
• Portugal swaps pay cuts for tax rises (FT)
• Madrid faces regional funding backlash (FT)
• Berlin Seeks to Push Back New Euro-Crisis Aid Requests (WSJ)
• Race Focuses on Foreign Policy (WSJ)
• China Speeds Up Approvals of Foreigners’ Stock Investment (Bloomberg)

Uninspiring day. Light ROff, but nothing major.

In absence of hard data, subject to rumours and sentiment. 

Rainy.

As I anticipated, the iPhone 5 looks to mark the Zenith in Apple's acsent to smartphone dominance...

There was much riding on the Apple update for the first weekend sales from the new iPhone 5 and here they are.

• APPLE SAYS IPHONE 5 FIRST WEEKEND SALES TOP 5M.

This number would be great if only it wasn't 50% off the highest whisper estimate of up to 10 million sales in the weekend. It is also the reason why the stock is now sliding down well over 2%, threatening to light the AAPL hedge fund hotel on fire.

• World on track for record food prices 'within a year' due to US drought (Telegraph)
• Foxconn halts production at plant after mass brawl (BBC)
• Germany Losing Patience With Spain as EU Warns on Crisis Effort (Bloomberg)
• Fed Recovery Doubts Spur Investor Bid for Treasuries (Bloomberg)
• Japan protests as Chinese ships enter disputed waters (Reuters)
• In Shark-Infested Waters, Resolve of Two Giants Is Tested (NYT)
• China jails Wang Lijun for 15 years (FT)
• China closes in on Bo Xilai after jailing ex-police chief (Reuters)
• European Leaders Struggle to Overcome Crisis Stalemate (Bloomberg)
• Politicians 1: Austerity 0 - Portugal Gives Ground on Worker Contributions (WSJ)
• Obama Controls Most of His Money as Republicans Have More (Bloomberg)
• Coeure Says Not Clear That Further ECB Interest-Rate Cut Needed (Bloomberg)
• France Seeks Labour Overhaul (WSJ)

The Constitution, Magna Carta and Democracy Itself Are Based on the Idea that – Without Checks and Balances – Those In Power Will Take Advantage of Us

Following the riots at Apple's FoxConn Chengdu plant in June, engadget is reporting that FoxConn's Taiyuan plant - the scene of earlier strikes over salary disputes back in March - has suffered damage as workers riot. Police are on site to control the crowd and while the motive is not clear, it is apparently unrelated to the recent anti-Japan protests. It appears - based on the clip and photos below - that much damage has been done in the process.

Large, centrally-directed systems are inherently fragile. Think of the human body; a spontaneous, unexpected blow to the head can kill an otherwise healthy creature; all the healthy cells and tissue in the legs, arms, torso and so forth killed through dependency on the brain’s functionality. Interdependent systems are only ever as strong as their weakest critical link, and very often a critical link can fail through nothing more than bad luck. Yet the human body does not exist in isolation. Humans as a species are a decentralised network. Each individual may be in himself or herself a fragile, interdependent system, but the wider network of humanity is a robust independent system. One group of humans may die in an avalanche or drown at sea, but their death does not affect the survival of the wider population. The human genome has survived plagues, volcanoes, hurricanes, asteroid impacts and so on through its decentralisation.

Two weeks ago, when summarizing the state of the US vs China escalating patent war (for now manifesting itself in the courtroom brawl between Apple and Samsung, but soon to drag many more comparable companies down in drawn out litigation), we observed that while AAPL may have the upper hand, iPhone 5 map fiasco notwithstanding, that "the Chinese politburo can one day decide to pull FoxConn's operational license, in the process bankrupting AAPL overnight" if China really wanted to turn the tables. Obviously, this was the "thought experimental" MAD outcome which leads to loses for everyone involved: both Apple and China (where Apple's contract manufacturer FoxConn employs over 1 million workers). There is one other alternative: that FoxConn, by now having reverse engineered the peak of Apple's brilliance (whose latest evolutionary step was "lighter" and "longer", which anyone could have come up with), decides to brave it alone, and instead of being a contract manufacturer, to simply slap on a FoxConn sticker, a la Acer and ASUS, and sell all Apple-equivalent products at 50% off while collecting all the revenue. Impossible, you say, Apple would never allow it? It is already happening, first in high-growth Brazil, where FoxConn is now launching its own stores.

Peak career risk. That's how one can summarize what the hedge fund community, long used to "nimbly" outperforming the market populated by slow, dumb money managers and getting paid 7+ digit bonuses, is feeling right now. The last time we looked at relative hedge fund performance, because let's face it: indexing is a polite word for underperforming and anyone who says otherwise is rather clueless about the asset management industry in which the only thing that matters is always outperforming everyone else, only 89% of hedge funds were underperforming the S&P500 through mid-August. A month later, this number is now up to 92% as of September 14. A month later, this number is now up to 92% as of September 14.

Inversely this means that only 8% of hedge funds are outperforming the market with just 3 months left in the year.