Apple

Want to buy stocks on anything than a greater fool theory, or hope and prayer that someone with "other people's money" will bail you out of a losing position when the market goes bidless? That may change after reading the latest monthly letter from Pimco's Bill Gross whose crusade against risk hits a crescendo. Yes, he is talking his book (and talking down his equity asset allocation), but his reasons are all too valid: "The cult of equity is dying. Like a once bright green aspen turning to subtle shades of yellow then red in the Colorado fall, investors’ impressions of “stocks for the long run” or any run have mellowed as well. I “tweeted” last month that the souring attitude might be a generational thing: “Boomers can’t take risk. Gen X and Y believe in Facebook but not its stock. Gen Z has no money.”.... So what is a cult chasing figure supposed to do? Well, the cult of equities may be over. But the cult of reflating inflation is just beginning: "The primary magic potion that policymakers have always applied in such a predicament is to inflate their way out of the corner. The easiest way to produce 7–8% yields for bonds over the next 30 years is to inflate them as quickly as possible to 7–8%! Woe to the holder of long-term bonds in the process!... Unfair though it may be, an investor should continue to expect an attempted inflationary solution in almost all developed economies over the next few years and even decades. Financial repression, QEs of all sorts and sizes, and even negative nominal interest rates now experienced in Switzerland and five other Euroland countries may dominate the timescape. The cult of equity may be dying, but the cult of inflation may only have just begun."

• Schäuble View on Eurozone at Odds With US (FT)
• Juncker: Euro zone leaders, ECB to act on Euro (Reuters)
• German Banks Cut Back Periphery Lending (FT)
• Monetary Policy Role in EU Debt Crisis Limited: Zoellick (CNBC)
• Bond Trading Loses Some Swagger Amid Upheaval (NYT)
• As first reported on ZH, Deflation Dismissed by Bond Measure Amid QE3 Anticipation (Bloomberg)
• Record Cash Collides With Yen as Topix Valuation Nearing Low (Bloomberg) - but, but, all the cash on the sidelines...
• Greek Leaders Agree Most Cuts, Lenders Stay On – Source (Reuters)
• Chinese Investment in US 'set for record year' (China Daily)

Two weeks ago we highlighted the dismal performance (and massively over-crowded momentum factor tilt) of the 2-and-20 crowd relative to a passive equity ETF investment over the past few years. The reality is, in a Central Bank systemically-driven, high correlation, low dispersion world, the herding of hedge fund cats (with expert networks now dead) leaves them massively over-exposed and chasing the same relative returns as their mutual fund index-tracking peers - for fear of the career-limiting (Tilson-esque) miss of the great bull market's next leg. Apropos of this, Goldman's index of the most-widely-held stocks by hedge-funds is back to levels not seen since March 2009 and down a whopping 7.2% in Q2 of this year as all that momentum fades. Interestingly JNJ is the most widely held (by $ amount) short among hedge funds and of course Apple is the most widely held long.

• ECB's Nowotny - ESM banking license could be advantageous (Reuters) - just keep regurgitating headlines until they generate a short squeeze
• IMF Says China Downside Risks Significant as Growth Slows (Bloomberg)
• Moody's cuts outlook on EU stability facility to negative (Reuters)
• Rome places spending controls on Sicily (FT)
• Big banks' glory days feared to be gone for good (Reuters)
• China's CNOOC scoped Nexen, partnered, then pounced (Reuters)
• Germany backs Spanish austerity plans (FT)
• Are 2012 Games one too many for London? (Reuters)
• Euro Crisis Spreading East Damps Growth, Development Bank Says (Bloomberg)
• Japan Flags Yen-Sales Impact as BOJ Eyes More Easing (Bloomberg)

1000s of Apple luvin', disrespectful fanbois should be rushing to apologize to the BoomBustBlog editor for failure to recognize true fundamental analysis in the face of chasing leveraged beta. Unfortunately, it just won't happen...

If the UK was desperately hoping for a "terrible" economic print, it got it this morning after preliminary Q2 GDP printed 0.7% on expectations of a -0.2% decline, following a -0.3% drop in Q1, cementing the country's double dip collapse. Reuters explains: "The Office for National Statistics said Britain's gross domestic product fell 0.7 percent in the second quarter, the sharpest fall since early 2009 and a bigger drop than any of the economists surveyed in a Reuters poll last week had expected. The figures confirmed that Britain is mired in its second recession since the financial crisis, with the economy shrinking for a third consecutive quarter. It will add pressure on Osborne to get the economy growing again after a crisis that has left many Britons poorer as rising prices and higher taxes ate up meager wage increases. Sterling hit its lowest in nearly two weeks against the dollar after the data, and government bond prices rallied on speculation that the Bank of England may have to provide more economic stimulus than expected. Earlier this month the BoE has announced another 50 billion pound program of gilt purchases with newly created money to soften a grim economic outlook, but Wednesday's data is likely to add to market speculation that it may cut interest rates later this year. "This is terrible data. Frankly there's nothing good that comes out of these numbers at all," said Peter Dixon, an economist at Commerzbank. "The economy looks to be badly holed below the water line at this stage. It's a far worse period of activity than we'd expected."" Amusingly, according to Goldman "It is difficult to reconcile the weakness of today’s official GDP data with any other indicator of economic or labour market activity." We knew the peripherals were doing all they can to sabotage their economies and be eligible for more aid and bailouts. But the UK?

"This market isn't real. The two percent on the ten-year, the ninety basis points on the five-year, thirty basis points on a one-year – those are medicated, pegged rates created by the Fed and which fast-money traders trade against as long as they are confident the Fed can keep the whole market rigged. Nobody in their right mind wants to own the ten-year bond at a two percent interest rate. But they're doing it because they can borrow overnight money for free, ten basis points, put it on repo, collect 190 basis points a spread, and laugh all the way to the bank. And they will keep laughing all the way to the bank on Wall Street until they lose confidence in the Fed's ability to keep the yield curve pegged where it is today. If the bond ever starts falling in price, they unwind the carry trade. Then you get a message, "Do not pass go." Sell your bonds, unwind your overnight debt, your repo positions. And the system then begins to contract... The Fed has destroyed the money market. It has destroyed the capital markets. They have something that you can see on the screen called an "interest rate." That isn't a market price of money or a market price of five-year debt capital. That is an administered price that the Fed has set and that every trader watches by the minute to make sure that he's still in a positive spread. And you can't have capitalism if the capital markets are dead, if the capital markets are simply a branch office – branch casino – of the central bank. That's essentially what we have today."

UPDATE: AAPL -6.25% AH

Major misses everywhere, and this for the second quarter in a row - from the Q3 earnings report:

• APPLE 3Q REV. $35.02B, EST. $37.25B
• APPLE 3Q EPS $9.32, EXP. $10.37
• APPLE 3Q NET PROFIT $8.8B
• APPLE SEES 4Q REV. ABOUT $34B, EST. $38.01B
• AAPLE 3Q GROSS MARGIN 42.8%, EST. 43.8%
• APPLE SOLD 17.0 MILLION IPADS DURING QTR, UNIT EST. 15.4M
• APPLE 3Q IPOD UNITS SOLD 6.8MLN , DOWN 10%
• APPLE SOLD 4.0 MILLION MACS DURING QTR, UNIT EST. 4.3M
• APPLE SOLD 6.8 MILLION IPODS IN QTR, UNIT EST. 6.6M

Is the dream over?

The major European bourses are down as US participants come to their desks, volumes still thin but higher than yesterday’s, and underperformance once again observed in the peripheries, with the IBEX down 2.5% and the FTSE MIB down 1.2%. Last night’s outlook changes on German sovereign debt caused a sell-off in the bund futures, with the effect being compounded as Germany comes to market with a 30-year offering tomorrow. The rating agency moves, as well as softer Euro-zone PMIs and reports that Spain is considering requesting a full international bailout have weighed on the riskier asset classes, taking EUR/USD back below the 1.2100 level. Furthermore, with Greece and a potential Greek exit now back in the news, investor caution is rife as the Troika begin their Greek report of the troubled country today.

• Greece should pay wages in drachmas - German MP (Reuters)
• Greece Seeks More Cuts as Deadlines Loom (WSJ)
• Greece Back at Center of Euro Crisis as Exit Talk Resurfaces (Bloomberg)
• Berlusconi seeks return to liberal roots (FT)
• For brokers like Peregrine, from bad times to worse (Reuters)
• Japan Sees More ‘Widespread’ Global Slowdown With China Cooling (Bloomberg)
• China Central Bank Adviser Forecasts Growth Slowdown to 7.4% (Bloomberg)
• London Out to Prove It's Still in the Game (WSJ)
• Stockton Reveals Bondholder Offers From Mediation (Bloomberg)
• US lawmakers propose greater SEC powers (FT)

Consumers are paying an easy $35 dollars per barrel over what they would otherwise dole out for a barrel of oil if fund managers didn`t use the benchmark futures contracts as their own personal ATMs.

In the eyes of our most decorated ‘scientists’, the brilliance and guile of Ingvar Kamprad, Sam Walton, Ray Kroc, Asa Candler, Richard Branson, Steve Jobs, and millions of others are far less important than an effective government bureaucracy. His entire book, in fact, is an impassioned argument for even more government control and redistribution of wealth. Right… because it’s been working so well. These ideas are totally absurd. Yet this what passes as science today. And because it’s science, society simply believes it to be true. No doubt, people in the future will look back, and they’ll wonder… but they won’t understand one bit.

• Looks like the troops won't be steamrolled: JPMorgan Blaming Marks On Traders Baffles Ex-Employees (Bloomberg)
• The Goldman "Huddle" goes to Blackrock - Surveys Give Big Investors an Early View From Analysts (NYT)
• At least housing has bottomed: London House Prices Plunge As Supply Rise Adds To Lull (Bloomberg)
• Christine Lagarde and Nicolas Sarkozy embroiled in new corruption inquiry (Telegraph)- at least that fraud they created: Others helped them create it.
• Heat Leaves Ranchers a Stark Option: Sell (NYT)
• Merkel Gives No Ground on Demands for Oversight in Debt Crisis (Bloomberg)
• The euro skeptics have the best lines again (FT)
• Wen Says China’s Economic Recovery yet to Show Momentum (Bloomberg)
• Europe’s Banks Face Tougher Demands (FT)
• Madrid Region To Sell 100 Office Buildings Amid Austerity (Bloomberg)
• China eases taxes for foreign companies (FT)

Last week the S&P erased 6 days of consecutive losses in 30 minutes of trading on the back of news that JPMorgan lost at least 25% of its average annual Net Income in one epic trade, and stands to make far fewer profits in the future, even as the regulators are about to fire a whole lot of traders for mismarking hundreds of billions in CDS. This was somehow considered "good news." This being the "new normal" market, where nothing makes sense, and where EUR repatriation as a result of wholesale asset sales by European banks drives stocks higher, we were not too surprised. Sadly, even in the new normal, things eventually have to get back to normal. And that normal will come as corporate earnings are disclosed over not so much over the next 3 weeks, when 77% of the companies in the S&P report Q2 results, but in the 3rd quarter. Why the third quarter? Simple: as Goldman's David Kostin explains, "consensus now expects year/year EPS growth to accelerate from 0% in 2Q, to 3% in 3Q to 17% in 4Q." Sorry, but this is not going to happen...

• EU talks up Spanish banks package, markets skeptical (Reuters)
• China’s Import Growth Misses Estimates For June (Bloomberg)
• The monkeyhammering continues: Paulson Disadvantage Minus Fund down 7.9% in June, down 16% in 2012 (Bloomberg)
• Draghi pledges further action if needed (FT)
• JPMorgan Silence on Risk Model Spurs Calls for Disclosure (Bloomberg)
• Norway's Statoil to restart production after govt stops strike (Reuters)
• Top Fed officials set table for more easing (Reuters)
• Euro-Split Case Drives Danish Krone Appeal in Binary Bet (Bloomberg)
• Obama Intensifies Tax Fight (WSJ)
• Europe Automakers Brace for No Recovery From Crisis (Bloomberg)
• Boeing’s Air-Show Revival Leaves Airbus Nursing Neo Hangover (Bloomberg)
• Libor Woes Threaten to Turn Companies Off Syndicated Loans (Bloomberg)