Apple

When wondering why AAPL disappoints once more on its next earnings release, please pull a Bill Gross and look in the mirror, dear broke consumer, because it is your fault. At least that is the spin by the CEO of France Telecom, who says that iPhone sales are now being threatened by, drumroll please, "frugal buyers." That's right: in France "frugal" is now a dirty word. Not socialism, not 75% taxes, not budget ministers charged with rooting out tax fraud and lying about their Swiss bank accounts, not movie legends who can't wait to get Russian passports - it's "frugality" that is at fault. Because how dare French consumers not load up on cheap, government subsidized credit card debt and splurge like good old Americans who can't wait to pledge their shotguns as collateral for clunkers, and who haven't paid their mortgage in years courtesy of pervasive debt forgiveness for deadbeats, spending on iCrap instead? The France Telecom CEO demands answers now!

It all looked great as we held the overnight rampathon (driven by EURJPY fiddling) into the US open and yay verily, the media was celebrating (and kept their exuberance going til the close with the Dow at another all-time closing high). The S&P was amusingly (and oh so humanly) bid 7 points vertically into the close to ensure a VWAP close in the futures (and another new closing high for the S&P) as the Nasdaq bounced perfectly off unchanged from Cyprus levels. But away from that idiocy, things were not so great. Builders were battered out of the gate (-2.4% on the week); The Dow Transports never saw green all day dropping 1.3% (and now down 3% post-Cyprus) and while the broad Russell 2000 opened gap up (like the rest) it was slammed slower all day and ends -2% from pre-Cyprus (while the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq hold 0.5-1% gains). Silver was monkey-hammered (on no news whatsoever - and record US Mint demand) down 4% on the week and gold slipped ending -1.3% (even with the USD retracing yesterday's weakness to close unchanged on the week). Treasuries drifted higher in yield with 7Y underperforming (but only unch on the week). VIX compressed but remains considerably dislocated from stocks' exuberance.

• The revolving door continues: Mary Schapiro joins Promontory Financial (WSJ)
• First Peek at Health-Law Cost (WSJ)
• Abe warns over Japan inflation target: warns 2% inflation target may not be reached within two years (FT)
• BoJ's Kuroda tested by divided board (Reuters)
• Nanjing poultry butcher fourth person infected with H7N9 bird flu (SCMP)
• What time do top CEOs wake up? (Guardian)
• Cyprus Seeks More Time to Meet Targets in Talks With Troika (BBG)
• Investors Ignore Negativity at Their Peril (WSJ)
• Apple bows to Chinese pressure (FT)
• One can only laugh: North Korea to restart nuclear reactor in weapons bid (Reuters)
• Visa Demand Jumps (WSJ)
• Bloomberg's refutation of Stockman: yes, yes but... look over there, stocks are up! (BBG)

Deja Deja... oh forget it. S&P failed to make its all-time highs. We dipped (on heavy volume) and wiggled all the way back on no volume in stocks. Healthcare and Utilities lead the week but high-beta momo-monkeys chased homebuilders on the day. Wherever you looked today - apart from stocks - risk assets were being sold. VIX is higher on the day (and 2.5 vols disconnected from stocks); high-yield and investment-grade credit markets are ending near their worst level of the week - suggesting the S&P is 20 points rich; Treasuries ended off their low yields but stil down 7bps on the week and notably more post-Cyprus (with stocks in the green post Cyprus). The USD strengthened further during the EU session and flatlined in the US afternoon (with EURJPY leading the way down and not supportive at all of the equity rally). Apple lost its 50DMA again, dropping 2.2%. Equity volume was extremely low (cash and futures) and average trade size the lowest of the year. The phrase of the day is - irrational divergence.

• What bread... What circuses... JPMorgan Chase Faces Full-Court Press of Federal Investigations (NYT)
• European Regulators to Charge Banks Over Derivatives (WSJ) ... but forgive us if we don't hold our breath
• Cyprus readies capital controls to avert bank run (Reuters)
• Damage ripples through Cypriot economy (FT)
• G4S readies guards as Cypriot banks prepare to open (Reuters)
• Global pool of triple A status shrinks 60% (FT)
• Customers Flee Wal-Mart Empty Shelves for Target, Costco (BBG)
• BOE Says U.K. Banks Have Capital Shortfall of $38 Billion (BBG)
• U.K. Banks Facing Capital Shortfall (WSJ)
• Cyprus Details Bank Revamp (WSJ)
• Kazumasa Iwata Joins Kuroda Naysayers as BOJ to Meet (BBG)
• BRICS Nations Need More Time for New Bank, Russia Says (BBG)

Ever wonder how much iTunes represents of Apple's revenue model? Ever consider just how high the cost of sales is for Apple's products? This beautiful chart from Asymco shows just where Apple's revenues come from and where they are spent for the last quarter....

• Berezovsky Died of Hanging Without Struggle, Police Say (BBG)
• BRICS Nations Plan New Bank to Bypass World Bank, IMF (BBG)
• China pledges more investments to Africa (FT)
• BOJ's Kuroda signals targeting longer-dated JGBs (Reuters)
• North Korea orders artillery to be combat ready, targeting U.S. bases (Reuters)
• Supreme Court to take up gay marriage for the first time (Reuters)
• U.S. Cracks Down on 'Forced' Insurance (WSJ)
• Japanese courts press Abe on electoral reform (FT)
• Vietnam accuses China of attack on fishermen in South China Sea (Reuters)
• Italy's High Court Overturns Knox Acquittal (WSJ)
• Facebook’s Zuckerberg Said to Explore Forming Political Group (BBG)

Before last Saturday, few even knew where Cyprus was located. Then, courtesy of the most epically bungled up "bail-out in" attempt in the history of the Troika, Cyprus became the only thing everyone talked about: the definition of a black swan. How did this transformation from an ugly island duckling to a glorious black swan look like from the perspective of the media? The following chart courtesy of Bloomberg's Michael McDonough, which shows the instances of mentions of the words "Apple", "Germany" and "Cyprus" across newswires, shows the answer which not surprisingly even looks like a swan.

• Cyprus Salvaged After EU Deal Shuts Bank to Get $13B (BBG)
• Last-minute Cyprus deal to close bank, force losses (Reuters)
• Anxious, angry Cypriots face uncertain future (Reuters)
• Spain Brings the Pain to Bank Investors (WSJ)
• First Switzerland now... U.S. Seeks Answers in Liechtenstein on Tax Cheats (BBG)
• Rebel Free Syrian Army founder loses leg in Syria blast (Reuters)
• European Stocks Rise on Cyprus Deal as Italian Bonds, Crude Gain (BBG)
• Michael Dell Likely to Sweeten Buyout Bid to Save Legacy (BBG)
• Bankers’ pay premium is narrowing (FT)
• Surgery Restoring Penis After Prostate Cancer Increasing (BBG)
• Silent or supportive, conservatives give gay marriage momentum (Reuters)

Even your data and conversations on its encrypted services that you thought were secure aren’t; at least not from 46 governments around the world.

• Cyprus targets big depositors in bank plan  (FT)
• Merkel Vents Anger at Cyprus Over Bailout Plan as Deadline Looms (BBG)
• Russia rebuffs Cyprus, EU awaits bailout "Plan B" (Reuters)
• Russia Rejects Cyprus Bid for Financial Rescue as Deadline Looms (BBG)
• Cyprus unveils shake-up as the clock ticks (FT)
• Remember Italy? Italy’s stalemate unnerves investors (FT)
• Credit Suisse CEO pay jump to fuel banker bonus debate (Reuters)
• Kuroda Rebuts Reflation Naysayers as BOJ Action Looms (BBG)
• Fund Manager Says 'Whale' Trade Was a Bet (WSJ)
• House averts government shutdown, backs Ryan budget (Reuters)
• Hong Kong Homes Face 20% Price Drop as Banks Raise Rates (BBG)

• Euro zone call notes reveal extent of alarm over Cyprus (Reuters)
• Stagnant Japan Rolls Dice on New Era of Easy Money (WSJ)
• Cyprus, European data batters shares and euro (Reuters)
• UK cuts taxes to revive stagnant economy (FT)
• "Quality Control" Rat Body Linked to Blackout at Fukushima (NYT)
• North Korea issues fresh threat to U.S., South probes hacking (Reuters)
• South Korea Says Chinese Code Used in Computer Attack (BBG)
• Osborne paves way for Carney to retool Bank of England (Reuters)
• Carney Gets ‘Escape Velocity’ Mandate With Limiter (BBG)
• Osborne Pledges Five More Years of U.K. Austerity (BBG)
• Bernanke Saying He’s Dispensable Suggests Tenure Ending (BBG)
• Senate Passes Bill to Fund Operations (WSJ)

Not even the usual monthly futures panacea (which in fact manages to fool the entire centrally-planned market twice every month, all the time), the always rising German ZEW Economic Sentiment survey, which mysteriously did not come at an all time high, but still rose from February's 48.2 to 48.5, despite expectations of a decline to 48.1, has managed to push the EUR higher in overnight trading, as a result keeping a lid on any of the generic no-volume futures levitation we have all grown to love. The reason is not that concurrently with the German data we got abysmal Eurozone Construction Output data, which plunged -7.3% Y/Y, the most in four months, following a slump in French and Spanish activity offsetting the German "confidence-boosting economic miracle" but simply because there continues to be no clarity whatsoever on events in Cyprus, where as noted earlier, the parliament may vote as soon as 6 hours from now to veto the proposed deposit confiscation "bailout/in" plan, which could lead to the first Eurozone banking system collapse, and the first expulsion of a member Eurozone nation, setting the wheels in motion for the unthinkable.

Most investors are nervous now and need to hold things together to include the Fed meeting announcement Wednesday. If bulls are lucky they’ll get their Turnaround Tuesday.  

Prior to yesterday, if you were trying to handicap how the unelected leaders of the Eurozone were going to react to a tough situation, you only had to refer to the quote "When it becomes serious, you have to lie" from Mr. Junker to understand their mindset. But so long as someone at the ECB was willing to flood the world with free EURs (with significant backup provided the US Federal Reserve) the market closed its eyes, held its breath and took the leap of faith that all was well. However, post the Cyprus decision, the curtain has been pulled back and wizard revealed with all his faults and warts. It would be hard to over-emphasize how significant the Cyprus situation is. The damage done here is not related to the size of the haircut - currently discussed between 3 and 13% - but rather that the legal language which each and every investor on the planet must rely on in order to maintain confidence in the system has been subordinated to the needs of the powerful elite.