Apple

"No brainer"? Seems to us like there’s only one way for things to go right and lots of ways for things to go wrong.

• World stocks on course for best month in four years (Reuters)
• Global Stocks Up Amid Stimulus Hopes (WSJ)
• BOJ Refrains From Adding Stimulus Even as Inflation, Growth Wane (BBG)
• U.S. Avoids Debt Default as Congress Passes Fiscal Plan (BBG)
• China naval chief says minor incident could spark war in South China Sea (Reuters)
• Exclusive Club: No High-Frequency Traders Allowed at Luminex (WSJ)

Norway's $860 billion sovereign wealth fund (tasked with managing the country's vast oil wealth) just had its worst quarter in 4 years and its first back-to-back quarterly loss since 2009 after an array of EM bets went awry. Meanwhile, the government is set to start making withdraws from the fund as slumping crude prices have effectively reduced inflows to zero. 

If you still haven’t heard of the psychotic violence perpetrated on a high school girl by Senior Deputy Ben Fields, it’s time to get up to speed (before he is fired this afternoon). If you want a gauge as to how far this society has fallen, this is all you need to see.

• Global shares rise as Riksbank helps ease Fed wait (Reuters)
• Asian Stocks Retreat Before Fed as Material Shares Lead Losses (BBG)
• For Fed, a Rates Puzzle Looms (WSJ)
• What the Superforecasters Say About When the Fed Will Lift Rates (BBG)
• U.S. Looks at Proposals to Step Up Fight Against Islamic State (WSJ)
• China Steel Head Says Demand Slumping at Unprecedented Speed (BBG)
• VW slumps to first quarterly loss in at least 15 years (Reuters)

We would say today's main event is the culmination of the Fed's two-day meeting and the announcement slated for 2 pm this afternoon, however with the 90 economists polled by Bloomberg all expecting no rate hike, today's Fed decision also happens to be the least anticipated in years (which may be just the time for the Fed to prove it is not driven by market considerations and shock everybody, alas that will not happen). And considering how bad the economic data has gone in recent months, not to mention the recent easing, hints of easing, and outright return to currency war by other banks, the Fed is once again trapped and may not be able to hike in December or perhaps ever, now that the USD is again surging not due to its actions but due to what other central banks are doing.

"During the third quarter, we determined that it was necessary to adjust our smartphone inventory primarily through the write-down of older generation phones, and via the acceleration of secondary market dispositions of excess phone inventory."

Yesterday's tumble on the read-through from component-maker Dialog Semi added to fears, noted by Berenberg Bank the previous week, that iPhone sales momentum was not as rosy as Tim Cook told Jim Cramer after all, is not seeing many BTFDers this morning. As we previously noted, the China channel checks painted an ugly picture, and now JPMorgan (while maintaining their 'overweight' rating on AAPL) is warning that it expects "cautious guidance" amid a weakening global macro picture.

Two biggest move overnight came from everyone's favorite carry pair, the USDJPY, which may have finally read what we said yesterday, namely that with the Fed and ECB both doing its job, there is little need for the Bank of Japan to repeat its Halloween massacre for the second year in a row, and as a result will keep its QQE program unchanged. It promptly tumbled from its 121 tractor level, to just above 120.25, where BOJ bids were said to be found. With the FOMC October meeting starting today, the other overnight catalyst was not surprisingly the latest Hilsenrath scribe in which he removed any uncertainty about a Wednesday hike, "leaving mid-December as the central bank’s last chance to raise rates this year."

News That Matters

Last week it was all about central banks, when both the ECB and the PBOC unleashed a massive market rally. This week it will be about even more central banks, this time the Fed, which won't hike, and the BOJ, which may but most likely won't as the Fed and the ECB already did its work for it, sending the Yen tumbling with their actions and/or jawboning.

In our Chinese stock market wrap following Friday's unexpected rate cut, which saw the Shanghai Composite storm out of the gate, we said that "we would not be surprised to see China's stocks sliding back into the red very shortly as "sell the news" concerns return, and as the increasingly more addicted "markets" demand even more liquidity from central banks just to stay unchanged, let alone rise to new all time highs." Sure enough, with just minutes to go before the close, the SHCOMP wiped out all its daily gains and was set for a red close had it not been for the "national team" miraculous last minute intervention which was inevitable after Friday's PBOC rate cut, and which lifted the composite 0.5% into the green as the euphoria was rapidly evaporating.

The William F. Buckley Jr. Program at Yale recently commissioned a survey from McLaughlin & Associates about attitudes towards free speech on campus. Some 800 students at a variety of colleges across the country were surveyed. The results, though not surprising, are nevertheless alarming. By a margin of 51 percent to 36 percent, students favor their school having speech codes to regulate speech for students and faculty.