Apple

60% Of Retail Sales Growth In Hong Kong Was Due To The iPhone 6

The sales of iPhone, which are captured in other consumer durable sales, grew on average 60%y/y since September, propelled predominately by the launch of new product. Excluding iPhones, retail sales value would have contracted almost 1%y/y in October, at the peak of the 'Occupy' movement, and expanded a more subdued 1.3%y/y during Sep-Nov 14 (see figure 1). In other words, over 60% of retail sales growth was attributable to iPhone in late 2014.

Frontrunning: January 30

  • Falling Prices Spread Pain Far Across The Oil Patch (WSJ)
  • ISIS Group Claims Responsibility for Attacks That Killed 27 in Egypt (NBC)
  • Russia Unexpectedly Cuts Key Rate as Economy Eclipses Ruble (BBG)
  • Greece’s Feisty Finance Minister Tries a More Moderate Message (NYT)
  • U.S. homeownership hits 20-year low, but new households growing (Reuters)
  • Indian Banks’ Shares Plunge as Bad-Loan Provisions Surge (BBG)
  • Underground Terror Network Said to Benefit Would-Be Jihadists in Europe (WSJ)
  • Russia warns West support for Kiev could lead to 'catastrophe' (Reuters)

Frontrunning: January 29

  • Who Doubts Yellen's Policies? Summers for One (BBG)
  • Samsung, Apple Back in Dead Heat for Global Smartphone Dominance (WSJ)
  • Islamic State purportedly sets new deadline for hostage swap (Reuters)
  • Turkey's $7.9 Billion Mystery Money That's Simply Vanished (BBG)
  • How a Two-Tier Economy Is Reshaping the U.S. Marketplace (WSJ)
  • U.S. Prisons Grapple With Aging Population (WSJ)
  • Hasenstab Sees $3 Billion Vanish in Ukraine as One Big Bet Sours (BBG) - maybe he should BTFD, pardon, "invest" in Belarus next?
  • Belarus May Seek Debt Restructuring in 2015, President Says (BBG)

Another Bailout: FXCM To Forgive 90% Of Its Mostly Foreign "Negative Balance" Customers

Two weeks after FXCM was on death's door, and only a last minute vulture investment by Jefferies prevented the company from filing, FXCM has decided that it can't afford to blow up the bulk of its clients who traded the EURCHF on the wrong side, and as the company reported moments ago, will forgive their negative balances. In other words, another bailout for HFTs, and the rich and those habitually addicted to gambling in rigged markets, who just happen to be the lifeblood of companies like FXCM.

Reggie Middleton's picture

US earnings drop materially less than a week after the ECB fires its gun & competing nations only start to react - just like the reaction at the beginning of the Great Depression! Rememberr, this isn' even a shootout yet. Wait until next quarter when the US multinatonals report. Of course, by then it'll be ALL OUT WAR!

Frontrunning: January 28

  • Fed seen remaining patient with rate guidance amid global turmoil (Reuters)
  • National Weather Service apologizes for blizzard forecast miss (CBS)
  • Greek PM Tsipras pushes on with radical change, markets tumble (Reuters)
  • Obama Drops Plan to Raise Taxes on ‘529’ College Savings Accounts (WSJ)
  • Hard Choices on Easy Money Lie Ahead for Fed Chief (Hilsenrath)
  • Debt That Once Boosted Its Cities Now Burdens China (WSJ)
  • Skymark Said to File for Bankruptcy After Airbus Deal Flops (BBG)
  • Heavy Fighting Drains Ukraine Government’s Options and Finances (WSJ)

Market Wrap: All Eyes On Yellen Who Better Not Disappoint

While all the algos are programmed and set to scan today's FOMC statement for whether both "patient" and "considerable time" are still there (as it did last time when it supposedly sent a pseudo-hawkish message while telling Virtu and Getco to buy, buy, buy), the market is torn between the trends observed in recent days: on one hand finally succumbing to the adverse impact of USD strength, which overnight also saw the Singapore Dollar admit defeat in the ongoing currency wars, is crushing both revenues and EPS, as well as outlooks, for the bulk of US companies, even as millennials - long since given up on buying a house - allocate their meager savings to the annual incarnation of Apple's flagship product as seen in yesterday's record, blowout numbers by AAPL which is up 8% in the premarket and sending Nasdaq futures soaring compared to the stagnant DJIA or S&P. And then there is Europe where the mood is decidedly sour this morning, with Greece imploding on fears Tsipras really means business and concerns the Greek "virus" may spread to other peripheral nations whose bonds have also seen a lack of a bond bid this morning.

Market Wrap: Futures Tumble On Spike Of "Strong Dollar" Earnings Disappointments And Profit Warnings

Following yesterday's earnings disappointments, most notably from Microsoft which is down 7% this morning following the usual after-the-fact downgrades from JPM, Citi and Nomura, futures were already on a the back foot heading into this morning - no doubt impacted by the deja vu ridiculous move in the EURCHF noted earlier - when the latest batch of earnings just hit, of which Dow component Procter and Gamble stood out and which missed the top and bottom line.  But the punchline, and in direct refutation of what Jack Lew said previously about a strong dollar being good for the US economy, was this:"The outlook for the year will remain challenging. Foreign exchange will reduce fiscal 2015 sales by 5% and net earnings by 12%, or at least $1.4 billion after tax." In other words, P&G will "offset" the surge in the USD with more layoffs. So when Jack Lew said "good" he really meant "bad."

Frontrunning: January 26

  • Alexis Tsipras: the Syriza leader about to take charge in Greece (Guardian)
  • Tsipras to form anti-bailout Greek government after big victory (Reuters)
  • Tsipras Forges Anti-Austerity Coalition in EU Challenge (BBG)
  • East Coast braces, flights canceled as 'historic' blizzard bears down (Reuters)
  • Rebels press Ukraine offensive, Obama promises steps against Russian-backed 'aggression (Reuters)
  • Syriza Victory Brings Hope for Immigrants of EU Access (BBG)
  • For Saudis, Falling Demand for Oil Is the Biggest Concern (BBG)
  • Oil prices fall on market relief over Saudi policy (Reuters)

Frontrunning: January 23

  • Saudi Arabia’s New King Probably Will Not Change Current Oil Policy (BBG)
  • Saudi King’s Death Clouds Already Tense Relationship With U.S. (WSJ)
  • Oil Pares Gains as New Saudi King Says Policies Stable (BBG)
  • Kuroda Says BOJ to Mull Fresh Options in Case of More Easing (BBG)
  • U.S. pulls more staff from Yemen embassy amid deepening crisis (Reuters)
  • Putin Said to Shrink Inner Circle as Hawks Beat Billionaires (BBG)
  • A Few Savvy Investors Had Swiss Central Bank Figured Out (WSJ)

The Ghost In The Machine, Part 1

Everyone who lost money on the SNB’s decision to reverse course on their three and a half year policy to cap the exchange rate between the CHF and the Euro made a category error. Simply put, the rules always change as the Golden Age of the Central Banker begins to fade. The SNB decision was a wake-up call, whether or not you were directly impacted, to re-examine portfolios and investment behavior for category errors. We all have them. It’s only human. The question, as always, is whether we’re prepared to do anything about it.

A New Theory Of Energy & The Economy, Part 1

How does the economy really work? In our view, both energy and debt play an extremely important role in an economic system. Once energy supply and other aspects of the economy start hitting diminishing returns, there is a serious chance that a debt implosion will bring the whole system down. In this first piece of this story, we explain how the economy is tied to energy, and how the leveraging impact of cheap energy creates economic growth.