Apple

Frontrunning: December 18

  • Oil heads for third straight weekly loss as supply weighs (Reuters)
  • BOJ's $2.5 Billion ETF Boost Seen Having Little Impact on Stocks (BBG)
  • Japan core CPI seen flat in November, household spending down (Reuters)
  • Dollar gets altitude sickness as BOJ disappoints (Reuters)
  • Fed Hikes, but Some Rates Veer Lower (WSJ)
  • White House calls for 'common sense steps' to help Puerto Rico (Reuters)

Frontrunning: December 15

  • Global stocks rise but oil, Fed keep investors nervous (Reuters)
  • Janet Yellen: An orthodox economist for unorthodox times (Reuters)
  • House Democrats Said to Be Open to Lifting Oil Export Ban (BBG)
  • Don't Count on an Oil Rally If U.S. Crude Export Ban Is Lifted (BBG)
  • Germany welcomes 34-state Islamic military alliance against terrorism (Reuters)
  • U.S. soldier Bergdahl may face life sentence in court-martial over desertion (Reuters)

Futures Surge, Oil Rebounds As Fed Starts Historic Two-Day "Rate Hike" Meeting

The start of the Fed's most eagerly awaited two-day policy meeting in years has finally arrived with the market expecting Yellen to announce the first 25 bps rate hike in 9 years tomorrow with nearly 80% probability, and so far US equity futures are enjoying a last minute relief rally, while emerging market stocks rose for the first day in ten after the longest losing run since June. Europe's Stoxx 600 Index has also rebounded from a five-day losing streak, the worst in over four months.

Frontrunning: December 14

  • Oil prices drop towards 11-year lows on worsening glut (Reuters)
  • Third Avenue Seen by Top Investors as Fueling More Carnage (BBG)
  • Lucidus Has Liquidated $900 Million Credit Funds, Plans to Shut (BBG)
  • Investor nerves tested with yuan, oil, Fed in play (Reuters)
  • Junk Bonds Stagger as Funds Flee (WSJ)
  • Seattle lawmakers set to vote on allowing Uber, other drivers to unionize (Reuters)

JPM Takes The Axe To iPhone Sales Estimates, Says Consensus Is 10% Too High

"1Q16 bears potential downside risks, while 2Q16 Street estimates seem unrealistic: TSMC saw 10% order cuts in November, which we believe is from Apple business with the impact during the end of 1Q16 or early 2Q. We believe 45-50mn is a more reasonable target. We expect to see meaningful stock price corrections for Apple supply chain names in 1Q16 with lowered Street expectations and disappointing Apple sell-through numbers."

The New Crypto Wars – FBI Director James Comey Threatens Silicon Valley

The U.S. establishment has been aggressively pushing against the American public’s right to private communications, i.e. encryption, ever since the terror attacks in Paris. This push continues unabated, with the latest shots fired earlier this week by FBI chief James Comey at a Senate Judiciary Committee hearing. I don’t want to tell them how to do their business... but there are costs to being an American business."

Frontrunning: December 10

  • Win or Lose, Trump Has Already Left His Mark on Republican Primary (BBG)
  • S&P 500 Futures Rise With Miners; Oil Erases Gains, Euro Drops (BBG)
  • U.S. top court divided over affirmative action in college admissions (Reuters)
  • San Bernardino Shooter Said to Have Planned an Attack in 2012 (WSJ)
  • Gun buyer and gunman linked through marriage, previous plot (AP)

After Vicious Rollercoaster Session, Global Stocks Flat, US Futures Stage Tepid Rebound In Illiquid Chaos

After yesterday's rollercoaster session in both the S&P and in oil, where initially stocks soared alongside oil, only to promptly tumble as stops were taken out and as the refiners' inventory strategy was exposed after the DOE's latest weekly numbers were released, it has been a quieter session so far, though maybe not for China where stocks jumped at the open only to fizzle and close at the lows in what appears to be ever less intervention by the market manipulating "National Team."

Why Diversification Is For Losers

"Invest for the long-term," "buy-and-hold," "stay diversified," are the mantra of every asset-gathering commission-taking 'manager' out there... However, as JPMorgan notes, empirically that is a loser's bet. In fact, investors owning just the top 10 performers of the S&P 500 has never suffered a single rolling 12 month period loss (lowest was April 2009 +0.24%).

Apple "Faces Risk Of Inventory Correction": Three Channel Checks Confirm Deteriorating iPhone Sales

One month ago, Credit Suisse confirmed what we had reported in the previous several weeks, namely that according to channel checks, iPhone supply chain orders had weakened recently adding that "in our view, the continued weak supply chain news could weigh on Apple shares for the next few weeks/quarters." The market did not like the news and sold AAPL stock only to promptly BTFD as it always has in the past 7 years: after all any transitory weakness is merely an opportunity to buy, right? Only this time the weakness may not be transitory, because as of this morning we now have not one but three updated channel checks all pointing to a substantial slowdown in AAPL's flagship product and core revenue generator, the iPhone.

4 Telltale Signs The Credit Cycle Is Turning Now

"... As the tide of leverage goes out, the full extent of irresponsible lending becomes apparent. The previously virtuous cycle between risk spreads and fundamentals goes into reverse, with lower prices, defaults, and downgrades forcing leveraged investors to sell, leading to even lower prices."

Internal Bleeding, Cheap Tech, And Falling Angels

So what happens to a market that’s balanced precariously atop the shares of a handful of “must own” companies when those companies lose their halos? Historically, the previously-strong sectors join the rest in a broad sell-off.

Diversification Is For Dummies - The Nifty Nine Never Mattered More

While the S&P languishes unchanged in 2015, these small groups of overwhelmingly propagandized stocks are up on average over 60%, but with a collective P/E of 45, they are not cheap (and perhaps should remember that when buying this momo, we are all Thanksgiving turkeys).