Apple

Meanwhile, In Ethiopia

China crashing, commodities plunging, emerging currencies imploding to levels last seen when LTCM blew up, Greece on the verge of deposit confiscations, the Apple Sachs Industrial average well in the red for the year, the US economy on the verge of an industrial recession, junk bonds bloodbathing, Donald Trump pulling ahead of Hillary... Meanwhile the president is in China's African slave colony of Ethiopia... prioritizing.

The Stock Market's Ugly Truth - Only 6 Stocks Matter

When we first exposed the shockingly dire lack of breadth in US equity markets, it was shrugged off by the mainstream media as yet another 'worry' in the wall to climb. It seems, however, that facts inevitably force their way to the surface and so both Bloomberg (more than 100% of this year’s increase in the S&P 500 Index is attributable to two sectors, health-care and retail. That’s the tightest clustering for an advancing year since at least 2000) and The Wall Street Journal (Amazon, Google, Apple, Facebook, Gilead and Walt Disney Co. account for more than all of the $199 billion in market-capitalization gains in the S&P 500) have been forced to expose the ugly truth about US equities... it is not a stock market - it's a market of 6 tail-chasing momentum stocks.

When Blind Faith In Memes And Taglines Turn Dangerous

Over the last five-plus years in regard to today’s financial markets, the most revered memes that are recited in unison whether it’s in the form of a silent prayer or, it’s done in a near backwoods revival fashion from the televised financial shows “pulpit” in a “Can I get an …. !!!” stylized homily are: “It’s different this time!” followed with “The Fed’s got you’re back.” However, what they mean today may find those that put all their “faith” into such dogma finding that faith severely tested. For as of today July, 26, 2015 It truly is – different this time. And what else is different is: the Fed. may indeed have one’s back. Only problem this time is – that back may no longer be “yours.”

Frontrunning: July 27

  • Chinese shares tumble 8.5 percent in biggest one-day drop since 2007 (Reuters)
  • Japan’s Economy Shrank Last Quarter, Top Forecaster Says (BBG)
  • Creditor teams in Athens to work on third bailout (AFP)
  • Tsipras’s Paradox Is Six Months of Pain and Enduring Popularity (BBG)
  • Goldman-Backed Instant Messaging Company Seeks New Investment (WSJ)
  • Best Buy will sell the Apple Watch on August 7th (Engadget) - when is it coming to Dollar General?
  • Senate votes to revive Ex-Im (Hill)
  • U.S.-Turkey Deal Paves Way to Set Up Buffer Zone in Northern Syria (WSJ)

The Big, Bad Bear Case

The purpose of this article is to outline, with facts, large global structural issues that everyone, bulls and bears alike, should be fully aware of.  This article will focus on much larger structural issues that have been building for years and decades. And no this article is not so much about central banks, debt issues, Greece, China, deficits, etc. While all these are important as part of the overall picture, they are mere current symptoms of a much larger issue that is at the core of all that is already in play and will only deepen in our societies in the decades to come.

Earnings And Guidance Suddenly Matter? Say It Ain't So...

We are seeing a kind of flight forward by investors – promises of future returns that may or may not eventuate continue to be highly rewarded – no price seems too high. This is actually a fairly typical bubble phenomenon. It is impossible to say for how long it will continue and how far it will go, but it is possible to say how it will end: in tears, especially for Johnny-come-lately investors.

Even The Stronger Areas Of The Market Are Starting To Weaken

We’ve spent the past few days in this space noting the recent thinning of the stock market advance. That is, despite the major averages continuing to hover near their 52-week highs, the internals are becoming uglier by the day. The main takeaway from this trend is that, should the relatively few areas of the market that are keeping it afloat begin to weaken, there will be precious little support left to prevent a significant correction. Indeed, we are beginning to see signs of deterioration now even among the stronger areas of the market.

Futures Drift Higher, Dollar Slides In Quiet Session

A slow week devoid of virtually any macro news - last night the biggest weekly geopolitical event concluded as expected, when Greece voted to pass the bailout bill which "the government does not believe in" just so the ECB's ELA support for Greek depositors can continue - is slowly coming to a close, as is the busiest week of the second quarter earnings season which so far has been largely disappointing despite aggressive consensus estimate cuts, especially for some of the marquee names, and unlike Q1 when a quarterly drop in EPS was avoided in the last minute, this time we won't be so lucky, and the only question is on what side of -3.5% Y/Y change in EPS will the quarter end.

Forget Recession: According To Caterpillar There Is A Full-Blown Global Depression

There has now been an unprecedented 31 consecutive months of CAT retail sales declines. This compares to "only" 19 during the near systemic collapse in 2008.  In other words, if global demand for heavy industrial machinery, as opposed to unemployed millennials' demands for $0.99 Apple apps, is any indication of the true underlying economy, forget recession: the world is now in a second great depression which is getting worse by the month.

 

Greece Isn't The Problem; It's A Symptom Of The Problem

All eyes may be on Greece right now, but in reality, the economic malaise is widespread across the continent.  It’s clear that Greece is not the problem. It’s a symptom of the problem. The real problem is that every one of these nations has violated the universal law of prosperity: produce more than you consume. This is the way it works in nature, and for individuals.

Retail Investors' "Cult"-est Stocks

We always keep a weather eye on the state of retail investing in the U.S.  There is, of course, the old saw that this batch of buyers doesn’t get involved until the top; therefore, it makes sense to see if they are getting too “Bulled up”. Then there is the fact that retail “Cult” stocks can hold premium valuations far longer than those without such sponsorship.

Perhaps It Wasn't Such A Good Idea To Leave The Fate Of The Tech Bubble In The Hands Of Apple

Apple is expected to be the largest contributor to earnings growth for the Information Technology sector for Q2 2015. The blended earnings growth rate (combines actual results for companies that have reported and estimated results for companies yet to report) for the Information Technology sector is 0.2%. Exclude Apple, and the sector would report a year-over-year decline in earnings of 6.0%.