- Default now or default later? (FT)
- Monti warns of tears in Italy's social fabric (Reuters)
- Fear Grows of Greece Leaving Euro (FT)
- Greek Elections Loom as Key Bailout Opponent Defies Unity (Bloomberg)
- Santander, BBVA to Set Aside 4.5 Billion Euros for New Cleanup (BBG) - Thank god they both passed the stress test
- Austerity Blow for Merkel in German State Election (Reuters)
- Apple Founder Wozniak to Buy Facebook Regardless of Price (Bloomberg) - so... another ponzi.
- Dimon Fortress Breached as Push From Hedging to Betting Blows Up (Bloomberg)
- Saudi and Bahrain Expected to Seek Union: Minister (Reuters)
- Obama Pitches Equal Pay to Win Women Even as Charges Drop (BBG)
All you need to read and some more.
Someone has to take the other side of the JPM debate. I'll try.
If you're not familiar with the concept of "Cost Shifting", the deadly (to your competition) effect of negative margins or believe that Google is search engine or ad co., then this article/video is a must read/see.
The entire bogus recovery is again being driven by subprime auto loans being doled out by Ally Financial (85% owned by the U.S. government) and the other criminal Wall Street banks. The Federal Reserve and our government leaders will continue to steer the country on the same course of encouraging rampant speculation, deterring savings and investment, rewarding outrageous criminal behavior, purposefully generating inflation, and lying to the average American. It will work until we reach a tipping point. Dr. Krugman thinks another $4 trillion of debt and a debt to GDP ratio of 130% should get our economy back on track. When this charade is revealed to be the greatest fraud and theft in the history of mankind, Ben and Paul better have a backup plan, because there are going to be a few angry men looking for them.
Europe’s doomed experiment with the politics of austerity went down in flames over the weekend as voters across the region veered sharply to the left in savaging incumbents. Elections in six European nations on Sunday promised to end any pretense of fiscal sanity. However, it remains to be seen how quickly and drastically the new leaders will act to further unbalance their nations’ books, ostensibly in the name of economic growth.
With earnings season now virtually over, it is time to ask why, despite a majority of the companies beating expectations, is the S&P inline with where it was when earnings season started. There are two main reasons why the market has not been impressed: the percentage of "beaters" is nothing spectacular on a historical basis as was shown previously, especially in the aftermath of aggressive cuts to Q1 top and bottom line forecasts heading into earnings reports; more importantly, even with Q1 earning coming out as they did, the bulk of the legwork still remains in the "hockeystick" boost to the bottom line that is completely Q4 2012 loaded, as bottom up consensus revisions to the rest of 2012 are negative despite Q1 beats. As Goldman summarizes: "1Q 2012 will establish a new earnings peak of $98 on a trailing-four-quarter basis. With 88% of S&P 500 market cap reported, 1Q EPS is tracking at $24.10, 1% above consensus estimates at the start of reporting season and reflecting 7% year/year growth." So far, so good. And yet, "Despite the positive surprises, full-year 2012 EPS estimates are unchanged relative to the start of earnings season, and currently stand at $105 vs. our top-down forecast of $100. Over half of consensus 2012 earnings growth is attributed to 4Q. Margins at 8.8% have hovered near peak levels for a year, but consensus expects a sudden jump in 4Q to a new peak of 9.1%. We forecast a further decline to 8.7%."
Gold is down 1.6% on the week. The gold market has seen peculiar, lack lustre, low volume trading this week punctuated with sudden, oddly timed, very large sell orders. This leads to quick price falls followed either by slow, gradual recovery or a sharp bounce, prior to next bout of strangely timed sudden large sell orders.
This was clearly seen by the mysterious and massive $1.24 billion ‘Goldfinger’ trade on Monday.
- Japan has 54 nuclear reactors, but as of Saturday, not one of them will be in operation (Guardian)
- US Readies Proposal to Clamp Down on Fracking (Reuters)
- California pension fund (CALSTRS) sues Wal-Mart, alleges bribery (Reuters)
- New Ripples for Gupta Case: Goldman Share Price, Volume Began Climbing Even Before Rajaratnam Trades (WSJ)
- China says blind dissident can apply to study abroad (Reuters)
- China paper calls Chen a U.S. pawn; envoy is a "troublemaker" (Reuters)
- Samsung’s New Galaxy S Phone Raises Heat on Apple Iphone (Bloomberg)
- Draghi predicts 2012 eurozone recovery (FT)
- Tumbling Home Ownership Marks a Return to Normal (Bloomberg)
- Zuckerberg Facebook IPO to Make Him Richer Than Ballmer (Bloomberg)
- SEC probes Chesapeake and its chief (FT)
- European Unemployment Rate Rises to Highest in Almost 15 Years (Bloomberg)
- Chinese Activist Leaves U.S. Embassy (WSJ)
- China April bank loans slide 30 pct from March-paper (Reuters)
- Moody's warns against lack of tax hike in Japan (Reuters)
- RIM CEO Bets on BlackBerry Without Keyboard to Challenge Apple (Bloomberg)
- European visits focus on boosting trade (China Daily)
- Martin Wolf- After the bonfire of the verities (FT)
- German Jobless Unexpectedly Up in April as Crisis Flared (Bloomberg)
- Romney Refuses to See China Progress on Yuan (Bloomberg)
- Bolivia Following Argentine Takeover Deepens Regional Divide (Bloomberg)
- Plosser Says Fed Must Guard Against Long-Term Inflation (Bloomberg)
Hard landing, soft landing, civil unrest, dominant economic superpower – the forecasts flow freely regarding China. The fact that good data is hard to come by regarding China does not seem to inhibit many outside observers. In this piece I will look at China through the lens of economic structure, Chinese history and culture—concepts which a number of observers often overlook. My general conclusion is that Chinese GDP growth rates are about to undergo a gradual but nevertheless perceptible decline. But I now believe a hard landing crash is unlikely, assuming that Europe does not totally disintegrate and the US does not roll over into a full scale recession.
Google vs .GOV vs Apple vs Telcos: .GOV keeps old way of doing business alive for current broadband cos. Roads are expensive too, but we have found ways to build them without requiring tolls at the end of our driveways.
- Europe focus of global May Day labour protests (BBC)
- Occupy movement's May Day turnout seen as test for its future (Reuters)
- BofA to Cut From Elite Ranks, will fire 2000 (WSJ)
- Man Group Has $1 Billion Outflows; Shares Slide on Cash Concern (Bloomberg)
- Obama Fails to Stem Middle-Class Slide He Blamed on Bush (Bloomberg)
- Berlin insists on eurozone austerity (FT)
- This must be really good for AMZN's 1.5% operating profit margins: Microsoft muscles in on ebooks (FT)
- Ohio Union Fight Shakes Up Race (WSJ)
- How to Lose $7.8 Billion and Still Be Top of the Rich List (WSJ)
- Hollande Seen Bowing to Debt Crisis in Socialists’ Balancing Act (Bloomberg)
- BP profit falls as Gulf spill costs still weigh (Reuters)
US Celllular Carriers Are At Risk Of Being Marginalized Into Nothingness Unless They Learn To Think Outside The Box... YesterdaySubmitted by Reggie Middleton on 04/30/2012 12:52 -0500
As creativity dies, so will the usefulness of the US cellular carrier.
It is amazing that so few cannot see the new millenium's Microsoft, potentially dominating mobile and desktop computing on a cloudy day!