Apple

The political and social disruption resulting from eurozone nations being processed like sausages will wear on investors’ nerves, in the same way that living near a slaughterhouse and listening to the screams of livestock being rendered, weighs on the mood.

All you need to read.

#444444; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 16px;">The job market is terrible, and the situation isn’t getting any better.  #444444; font-family: Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 16px;">So where will the new jobs be coming from? 

Here is the basic problem and why Italian and Spanish bonds are getting crushed again today (ignoring horrific unemployment data out of Spain). If Italy defaults with a 40% recovery, there is 1.613 trillion euro of debt affected (that is up about 10 billion in about a month). That means creditors would lose 970 trillion. Spain with 663 billion would cost almost 400 billion (its debt has shot up about 15 billion in a month). The problem is that EFSF doesn't take default off the table. It may delay the time to default (by helping roll debts as they mature), but all it mainly does is shift who would take the loss. The guarantors can't handle losses that big. There is no "ideal" solution because the problem is just an order of magnitude too large to provide any real help. Either the economies are going to get to balanced budgets (some combination of growth and cuts) or it will fail. Will EFSF do enough to see if the economies can get there?

All you need to read.

Mortgage principal writedowns may sound like a political panacea, until we consider the effects not only on borrowers, but on banks, and taxpayers, as well...

And now the "letter" we have all been waiting for...

Amazon's business model is quite fascinating: it is a retailers' retailer, and an online micropayment-based bookstore. That's it. Yet, as is well known, the key  problem with retailers is margins. So take a retailer ^squared and the margin becomes a problem^squared. And the one problem with online bookstores is that they compete dollar for dollar with Apple's ap store, so one must constantly spend for "innovation", if not actually innovate. Which explains the only two truly relevant charts from the AMZN earnings release: their operating income profit, and their R&D spend. One, to confirm that you can remove the retailer from the retailer, but you can never remove the margins; and the no matter how hard you try, you will always have to compete with Apple, and spend accordingly. And we throw in one bonus chart for good measure.

For now, it seems most of the market bulls have leaned the lesson on Netlfix.

The reason the liberal mainstream corporate media demonized the Tea Party is because it threatens the status quo.  The reason the conservative corporate mainstream media demonizes Occupy Wall Street is because it threatens the status quo.  These are textbook divide and conquer strategies being used on the American people.  Do not fall for it.  Yesterday I read a really interesting gallup poll that stated: “Not surprisingly, Americans who consider themselves supporters of the Occupy Wall Street movement (26% of all Americans) are more likely to blame Wall Street than the federal government for the nation's economic problems. Supporters of the Tea Party movement (22% of Americans) are overwhelmingly likely to blame the government.”  What is most compelling to me is that 26%+22% = 48% so basically almost a majority.  All we need to do is teach people that Washington D.C. and Wall Street are now the same corrupt entity.  They are one gigantic rogue trader sucking the lifeblood out of America.  If we can unite these forces, which I can say with certainty agree on the important issues, we can put an end to the status quo and free ourselves of this bondage. 

I call you to attention. I have found a bank that literally has more derivatives risk than Citibank, Goldman, Morgan and JP Morgan - COMBINED! If BAC & JPM are stuffing derivative risks behind your bank accounts, are you naive enough to believe that foreign banks are doing the same?

The European headlines continue to roll in. As far as I can tell, they either hired someone to play devil's advocate, or for the first time since at least July they actually tried to translate some of their words into action. They are running into legal roadblocks, death spiral scenarios, the reality that once they give the money to the PIIGS that the power reverts to the PIIGS, that everything is circular and self-referencing, that debt markets in the end can decouple from CDS markets, that Germany and France are going to see borrowing costs spike (even after the ECB rate cut), and that there are so many holes to plug - bank capital, bank bonds, PIIGS debt, Belgium debt, something about Dexia that no one even remembers, voters are against it, Greece isn't going to fool anyone, etc.

All you need to read.

So, what can I say? As the lone realist regarding Apple in the Blogosphere/Wall Street/MSM is vindicated, do I get 100s of emails saying I was right (to counter the 100s of hate mail) or do the fanboi investors & consumers continue to ignore facts & math. For those who are interested in actual fact, here's how I see things from this point forward.

Greek riot resumption? Debunked European bailout rumor? Spain downgrade? Apple miss? Failed German Bund auction? Continued freezing in the interbank market? No, none of these are enough to dent risk appetite overnight, driven one again exclusively by the EURUSD, which has picked over 100 pips overnight. The driver? THe same old that always drives the EUR higher: hopes, rumors and hopes that the rumors are true. Here is Bloomberg with a summary of reality and the opposite, lately better known as "capital markets."