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Global Stocks, US Futures Rebound As Oil Rises, Dollar Drops

Stocks across the board, and US equity futures are broadly in the green this morning as markets shrug off the terror-related events in the NYC area over the weekend.  There wasn’t a single positive “reason” for the green price action but fears about the bond “tantrum” appear to be fading while a stronger dollar helped push oil and the commodity complex higher.

US Futures; Euro Stocks Slide On Deutsche Bank Liquidity Fears; Bonds Bid

Following yesterday's paradoxical US stock surge catalyzed by a bevy of bad macroeonomic news, the overnight session has seen some good old "risk off" mood which hit European shares as a result of the previously reported $14 billion DOJ claim against Deutsche Bank, which sent Europe's biggest bank tumbling, dragging the banking sector lower, while a continued drop in the price of oil pushed energy companies lower.

Deutsche Bank Slapped With $14 Billion Fine By DOJ Over Mortgage Probe

Blowback? Just a few weeks after the EU slapped Apple with a $14 billion bill for "back taxes," the U.S. has responded with $14 billion fine on Deutsche Bank related to the DOJ's outstanding probe into the company's trading of mortgage-backed securities during the financial crisis.

Six Striking Observations About Corporate Debt

"It is usually a bad idea to buy corporate high yield bonds late in an economic upturn. Let me share some facts with you that undermine the perception outlined above..."

Small Business Survey Trips Economic Alarms

The problem for the Fed is that once again the window for a “rate hike” has likely closed. Economic uncertainty, deflationary threats, and market volatility will keep them boxed in for now. Unfortunately, the recent spike in LIBOR has likely already done a bigger job of tightening monetary policy than the Fed actually intended to do. This could cause problems in the not too distant future.

Frontrunning: September 15

  • Global stocks struggle for footing after bond slip (Reuters)
  • Mobileye says Tesla was 'pushing the envelope in terms of safety' (Reuters)
  • Donald Trump is a problem for the whole world, EU's Schulz says (Reuters)
  • Stuck on Ship, One Gloomy Hanjin Crew Waits to Learn Its Fate (WSJ)
  • U.K. Approves EDF’s £18 Billion Hinkley Point Nuclear Project (BBG)

US Futures, European Stocks Rebound, Bonds Fall Ahead Of US Data Deluge

The overnight session started with more weakness out of Asia, where chatter that the BOJ may end up doing nothing despite all the trial balloons (as we hinted yesterday), sent the USDJPY sliding, pushing the Nikkei lower, leading to a 7th consecutive decline in the Topix, the longest such stretch since 2014 even though the BOJ is now actively buying a record amount of ETFs. However, the modest dip in S&P futures and European stocks proved too much for BTFD algos, and risk promptly rebounded.

Frontrunning: September 14

  • Bayer wins over Monsanto with improved $66 billion bid (Reuters)
  • Yen trims gains as doubts creep in over BOJ easing (Reuters)
  • BOJ to make negative rates centerpiece of future easing: sources (Reuters)
  • Stocks Halt Selloff in Europe as Commodities Gains Lift Miners (BBG)
  • Donald Trump, New Team Recast His TV Image (WSJ)
  • Hanjin Brings One of World's Busiest Shipping Terminals Close to Standstill (BBG)

Frontrunning: September 13

  • IEA Changes View on Oil Glut, Sees Surplus Enduring in 2017 (BBG)
  • Futures dip with oil as investors assess rate hike chances (Reuters)
  • Hilsenrath - Divided Federal Reserve Is Inclined to Stand Pat (WSJ)
  • 'I didn't think it was a big deal,' Clinton says of pneumonia bout (Reuters)
  • Clinton's Lead Narrows Among Independents, Voters Nationally (NBC)
  • Libor’s Reaching Point of Pain for Companies With Big Debt Loads (BBG)

Why A 2% Move In Stocks Feels Like 20%

Everything is 10-times bigger now: a 2% move in stocks feels like 20%. And a 10bp move in bond yields feels like 100bps. “It’s the kind of thing that happened to Alice in Wonderland." But elevated asset prices come at the cost of systemic fragility. Because to suppress volatility requires feeding the beast with ever more stimulus.

Visualizing The (Massive) Size Of The US National Debt

When numbers get into the billions or trillions, they start to lose context. The U.S. national debt is one of those numbers. It currently sits at $19.5 trillion, which is actually such a large number that it is truly difficult for the average person to comprehend.