Backwardation
Murphy’s Law of Gold Analysis, Report 3 Jan
Submitted by Monetary Metals on 01/04/2016 00:03 -0500This week, the gold-silver ratio promptly moved up +2.3%. As readers will recall, we have been calling for a ratio value over 80 for a while.
Supply and Demand Report 27 Dec, 2015
Submitted by Monetary Metals on 12/28/2015 02:26 -0500For a long time, we called for a big drop in the silver price. It stubbornly did not, or when it did drop it soon recovered. In the end, we were right and the silver bulls were wrong.
Gold Price Drop of 6 Nov: Drilling Down
Submitted by Monetary Metals on 11/10/2015 07:49 -0500The cobasis briefly peaked around 11% (from around 0.5% previously).
A 14 Handle on Silver. Again. 8 Nov, 2015
Submitted by Monetary Metals on 11/09/2015 01:30 -0500Last week, we asked if silver would have a 14 handle again. This week, the market answered yes we can! How did we know? By looking at supply and demand.
The Dire Societal Consequences Of Stability-Obsessed Keynesians
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/31/2015 09:45 -0500We will be the first to admit that yield curve inversion is not the only factor causing recessions, but through the credit channel it can be an important contributor. Depending on the importance of the credit channel, the Federal Reserve, by pegging the short term rate at zero, have essentially removed one recessionary market mechanism that used to efficiently clear excesses within the financial system. While stability obsessed Keynesians on a quest to the permanent boom regard this as a positive development, the rest of us obviously understand that false stability breeds instability.
The Cost of Physical Gold vs. Futures
Submitted by Sprott Money on 10/22/2015 04:58 -0500If you’re sophisticated and have a bit of luck, you could end holding your gold exposure at zero or even make a profit.
And Then There Was None (Backwardation) 18 Oct, 2015
Submitted by Monetary Metals on 10/19/2015 02:21 -0500The dollar dropped about half a milligram gold, and 50mg silver.
But who wants to read about the universal currency falling, failing? Few people are so barbarous as to think of the dollar’s value as being priced in terms a monetary metal.
Why The Market Is Poised For A Rebound: Gartman Says "Bear Market" Will Take S&P To 1420-1550
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/29/2015 08:33 -0500Forget China, Volkswagen, Glencore, Noble, and pretty much everything else. The only catalyst that matters for today's price action has just been revealed. Earlier today, Dennis Gartman, whose flop-flip-flop-flipping calls on stocks, commodities and everything else have become a blur, just went mega bearish, and is predicting that the S&P has some 400 points of imminent downside.
Price Moves and Term Structures 20 Sep, 2015
Submitted by Monetary Metals on 09/21/2015 01:51 -0500Don't trade yesterday’s news. There was backwardation. However, it's a sensitive indicator and you need an updated picture before buying after a sizeable price move.
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VIX Has Not Done This Since The USA Was Downgraded
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/14/2015 15:50 -0500The VIX term structure has been inverted (spot higher than 3rd futures) for 17 days - that is the longest period of backwardation since August 2011, when uncertainty soared around the USA credit rating downgrade. In fact, much of the VIX term structure is higher today than it was at the peak of the crisis on Black Monday as both government shutdown and Fed rate hike fears dominate the forward curve...
The Petroyuan Cometh: Launch Of Renminbi-Denominated Oil Futures Contract Imminent
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/11/2015 19:05 -0500"One-by-one, the oil-majors will start to participate, then others will follow. While it might take some time to establish itself due to choppy markets and regulatory hurdles as well as the fact that it would introduce a foreign exchange element to crude futures, it is overdue for a Chinese contract to established."
Anyone Who Believes The COMEX Numbers Is Very Naive (They Are Much Worse!)
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/10/2015 20:00 -0500Following our detailing the Comex gold futures to deliverable physical gold ratio that is now north of 200:1, several correspondents noted that "they are probably bluffing...based on JPMorgan's previous lies, the real number is likely significantly higher than 200:1." History tells us that all Ponzi schemes and market interventions fail, and it appears we are on the cusp of a massive failure in the scheme to cover up the truth about the precious metals market.
Stocks & Commodities Pumped, Bonds & Yen Dumped After Massive Chinese Intervention
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/08/2015 15:04 -0500This Has Never Happened To VIX Before
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/05/2015 09:45 -0500Amid the carnage and chaos of the last two weeks, one thing has become crystal clear - the effect of massive one-way bets on 'everything', predicated on the omnipotence of central bankers, has left a market (stocks, bonds, FX, commodities) bereft of fundamental linkages and instead driven entirely by technicals (flows, forced unwinds, systematic gamma). While many 'records' were broken in terms of velocity of moves, it is the VIX complex that seems to have suffered most, and as the following chart shows, positioning is now at an extreme in both stocks, vol, and bonds once again.






