Backwardation

These Are Barclays' 13 Commodity "Black Swan Threats" For 2017

Beware the commodity "black swans" in 2017, at least according to Barclays. The British bank warns that raw materials markets from oil to metals face the a high likelihood of disruptions, which among, other include a default by Venezuela, riots in Chile, a trade war with China, more terrorism in Turkey, and even a Fukushima-type disaster in China.

What Keeps Goldman Up At Night About 2017

Between China, credit markets, financial conditions, political uncertainty, the consequences of Brexit, the presidential elections, global trade, the risk of sharp reflation, and the impotence of central banking, here are the top things that keep Goldman Sachs up at night about 2017.

Oil Fades From OPEC Exuberance On Fund Flows, Storage, & Contango Concerns

The overnight exuberance in crude oil futures markets has faded notably as the day has worn on. While news of supply cuts are unquestionably bullish (should one choose to believe it or not, remember the Saudis admission "we tend to cheat"), but the last few days have also seen a plethora of bearish-biased news that for now is being ignored.

OPEC Deal Sends Crude Curve Into Backwardation For First Time Since 2014

Following OPEC's agreement to cut prodiction for the first time in 8 years, front-end prices have spiked (above $50) but perhaps more notable is the unusual 'stability' in the crude curve around $54 from July 2017 to Nov 2019. For the first time since October 2014, the belly of the crude curve is in backwardation (far-months cheaper than near-months).

Goldman Now Expects OPEC To Reach Production Cut Deal, Raises Q1, Q2 Oil Price Forecast; Cuts Q3, Q4

"Our base case is now that an OPEC production cut will be announced and implemented with OPEC production at 33.0 mb/d in 1H17 and a Russia freeze at 11.6 mb/d. As we have flagged previously, this leads us to reverse the direction of our 2017 oil price path: normalizing inventory levels will generate backwardation by 2Q17 and leads us to raise our 1Q and 2Q17 WTI price forecasts to $55/bbl from $45/bbl and $50/bbl previously."