Backwardation

Goldman Warns OPEC Production Cut Extension Will Backfire, Result In Lower Prices

"Oil prices above $60/bbl would prove self defeating in our view given the flattening of the oil cost curve and the unprecedented velocity of the shale supply response." A decision to extend cuts, "would only exacerbate the backwardation that we project... and created downside risk to our 2018 $58/bbl forecast."

Monetary Metals's picture

Every week we talk about the supply and demand fundamentals. We were surprised to see an article about us this week. The writer thought that our technical analysis cannot see what’s going on in the market. We don’t want to fight with people, we prefer to focus on ideas. So let’s compare and contrast ordinary technical analysis with what Monetary Metals does.

Technical analysis, in all of its forms, uses the past price movements to predict the future price movements. We are not here to argue for or against technical analysis. We simply want to say that it’s not what we are doing. Not at all.

Our analysis is based on different ideas. The key idea is that there is a connection between the spot and futures market. That connection is arbitrage.

Hedge Funds Have Never Been This Long Crude Oil

Despite record gluts in crude and gasoline amid resurgent US crude production, hedge funds boosted their net long position in WTI last week to a new record high.  For the first time ever, hedge funds hold more than a billion barrels of bets that crude oil prices will rally.

Vince Lanci's picture

Silver and Gold Daily

Gold EFP (Cash to prompt future) was 20/50 yesterday (cash over) as Feb converges with cash. Chinese interest in a specific Gold bar through London is working way through the cash market.

These Are Barclays' 13 Commodity "Black Swan Threats" For 2017

Beware the commodity "black swans" in 2017, at least according to Barclays. The British bank warns that raw materials markets from oil to metals face the a high likelihood of disruptions, which among, other include a default by Venezuela, riots in Chile, a trade war with China, more terrorism in Turkey, and even a Fukushima-type disaster in China.

What Keeps Goldman Up At Night About 2017

Between China, credit markets, financial conditions, political uncertainty, the consequences of Brexit, the presidential elections, global trade, the risk of sharp reflation, and the impotence of central banking, here are the top things that keep Goldman Sachs up at night about 2017.