RANSQUAWK PREVIEW VIDEO: ECB September'15 Rate Decision: The ECB are expected to leave all three rates unchanged, with focus turning to inflation and the possibility of an expansion to the QE programmeSubmitted by RANSquawk Video on 09/02/2015 07:55 -0400
- All surveyed analysts expect the ECB to keep their three key interest rates unchanged
- A number of analysts have suggested that inflation rhetoric could be downbeat and further QE is a possibility later this year, as such any potential indication to this by Draghi is likely to take centre stage at the press conference
- The central bank are said to be concerned by inflation expectations, with low energy prices and recent EUR strength raising concerns about the central bank’s mandated 2% inflation target
While the market's attention overnight was focused on China's crumbling manufacturing and service PMI, data which was already hinted in the flash PMI reports earlier in August, the real stunner came not from China but from South Korea, which last night reported an unprecedented 14.7% collapse in exports, far worse than the -5.9% consensus estimate, and more than 4 times worse than July's 3.4%. The number is critical because not only do exports account for about half of South Korea's GDP but because it also happens to be the first major exporting country to report monthly trade data. That makes it the perfect barometer of global trade flows, or as the case may be, the canary in the global trade coalmine. It also confirms what we reported just one week ago when we said that "Global Trade Is In Freefall."
RANSQUAWK WEEK AHEAD PREVIEW - 31st August 2015: This week sees the final US Nonfarm payrolls report before the September FOMC rate decision, while the ECB rate decision and press conference is this week’s main event in EuropeSubmitted by RANSquawk Video on 08/31/2015 07:15 -0400
· The final US Nonfarm payrolls report before the September FOMC rate decision takes centre stage this week after developments in China last week dampened expectations for a Fed rate lift off
· The ECB rate decision and press conference is this week’s main event in Europe, with some analysts forecasting an extension to QE by the end of the year
You know what they say: when it rains it pours, especially when you’re the poster child for an epic emerging market unwind and you’re suffering through the worst inflation-growth outcome in over a decade while trying to combat dual deficits and ward off political and social upheaval.
- Virginia TV journalists killed by suspect with 'powder keg' of anger (Reuters)
- Policeman shot to death and three women stabbed, one fatally, in Louisiana (Reuters)
- China Intervened Today to Shore Up Stocks Ahead of Military Parade (Reuters)
- Margin Calls Bite Investors, Banks (WSJ)
- "Computer glitch" is preventing dozens of mutual funds, ETFs from promptly pricing their securities (WSJ)
- Oil prices rise more than 4 percent as equities rally (Reuters)
- Oil Industry Needs Half a Trillion Dollars to Endure Price Slump (BBG)
Because no discussion of global dollar pegs and entrenched FX regimes would be complete without mentioning the Hong Kong dollar...
Brazil's flagging economy, which is mired in stagflation and remains a slave both to China and to what looks like intractable political turmoil, has destroyed nearly 550,000 jobs YTD. As Barclays notes, " [the July] print is compatible with 140,939 job eliminations, pretty close to the historical low of -154,355 in June."
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"We conclude that, under current circumstances, it is only a matter of time until Brazil loses its investment grade status."
Translation: the Fed is not data dependent, but it is, as we have said all along, entirely market dependent.
"It is an old saying in commodities that the best cure for low prices is low prices. Market participants are now asking how much further prices need to fall and how long they need to stay there to bring supply and demand back in to balance and halt the price declines across a broad swathe of different raw materials markets. The fear is that just as the upside of the supercycle brought an unprecedented and long period of historical price highs, the plunge to the downside is shaping up to be equally dramatic and may yet have a way to run."
Over the weeks, months, and years ahead we’ll begin to understand more about the fallout from the death of the petrodollar and nowhere is it likely to be more apparent than in Saudi Arabia where widening fiscal and current account deficits have forced the Saudis to tap the bond market to mitigate the FX drawdown that's fueling speculation about the viability of the dollar peg. As Bloomberg reports, the current situation mirrors a "very scary moment" in Saudi Arabia’s history.
Last week, in the global currency war’s latest escalation, Kazakhstan instituted a free float for the tenge causing the currency to immediately plunge by some 25%. The rationale behind the move was clear enough. What might not be as clear is how recent events in developing economy FX markets stem from a seismic shift we began discussing late last year - namely, the death of the petrodollar system which has served to underwrite decades of dollar dominance and was, until recently, a fixture of the post-war global economic order.
WTI Crude Breaks Below Historic $40 Level, Energy Credit Spikes To Record Highs After Rig Count RiseSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 08/21/2015 13:04 -0400
Well, we have a winner - Oil broke to a 3 handle before 10Y rates hit a 1 handle (just - 10Y at 2.04%) following the 5th weekly rise in rig count (+2 to 674). Energy credit risk is soaring to record highs as investors realize 'there will be blood' in all those highly-levered loans. This is the first time the front-month crude contract traded below $40 since March 3rd 2009... just before QE was unleashed in all its asset-inflating, malinvestment-driving, zombifying glory.
Even before the latest shot across the bow in the escalating global currency wars, EM FX was beset by falling commodity prices, stumbling Chinese demand, and a looming Fed hike. And while, as Barclays notes, "estimating the global effects China has via the exchange rate and growth remains a rough exercise," more than a few observers believe the effect may be to spark a Asian Financial Crisis redux. For their part, BofAML has endeavored to compare last week’s move to the 1994 renminbi devaluation, on the way to drawing comparisons between what happened in 1997 and what may unfold in the months ahead.