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Which Assets Have Priced In A Chinese Economic Collapse? Barclays Explains

If we assume that China’s hard landing can and will get hard-er-er, it’s worth asking which assets and currencies have priced in a further deceleration in the world’s engine of global growth and trade. Barclays has more on what’s expensive and what’s cheap vis-a-vis persistent deterioration in the Chinese growth story.

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Frontrunning: November 27

  • Russia Takes Aim at Turkish Economy Amid Fighter-Jet Spat (WSJ)
  • ‘Commercial scale’ oil smuggling into Turkey becomes priority target of anti-ISIS strikes (RT)
  • Russia-Turkey Ties Are Headed Into a Deep Freeze (WSJ)
  • France signals softer stance on Assad after Russia talks (FT)
  • China Calm Shattered as Brokerage Probe Sparks Selloff in Stocks (BBG)
  • China Stock Bulls Hit Breaking Point as State Dials Back Support (BBG)
  • China's Bond Stresses Mount as Two More Companies Flag Concerns (BBG)
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"There Are No More Dollars In The Central Bank": Argentina's New President Confronts Liquidity Crisis

On Monday, Mauricio Macri, the son of Italian-born construction tycoon Francesco Macri, beat out Cristina Kirchner’s handpicked successor Daniel Scioli for Argentina’s presidency in what amounted to a referendum on 12 years of Peronist rule. Now, Macri faces a trio of daunting tasks: i) restore central bank liquidity, ii) implement a new FX regime, and iii) tackle the ballooning budget deficit. The most most pressing concern: the central bank is literally out of dollars. 

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Did Mario Draghi Just Leak The Bazooka? Two-Tiered NIRP System May Presage Big Rate Cut

With the ECB's December meeting just one week away, Mario Draghi and co. are still debating how best to package a new round of easing measures. As Reuters reports, the central bank is considering a tiered system for the application of negative rates in an effort to mitigate the effect on banks. Translation: the ECB may be preparing to "overwhelm" with an even larger cut to the already negative depo rate that analysts were expecting.

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Swiss Bank "Goes There", Applies Negative Rates To Retail Deposits

"We have determined that applying a negative rate was a more transparent and fairer solution for our clientele. This decision on negative rates is costing us a lot of money -- pretty much the equivalent of our entire annual profit last year."

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Brazil's Disastrous Debt Dynamics Could "Create Contagion" For Emerging Markets, Barclays Warns

“Brazil is confronting a toxic combination of a primary budget deficit, high public debt (relative to EM countries), very high real interest rates (the Selic stands at 14.25%), sluggish trend growth, a negative commodity price shock and potential contingent liabilities for the sovereign, which together spell trouble for public debt dynamics.”

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Stagflation Ahead: Goldman Is "Unreservedly Disappointed" With Latin America

By now, everyone knows Brazil is stuck in a stagflationary nightmare that's made immeasurably worse by the country's seemingly intractable political crisis. But what about the rest of Latin America? Goldman takes a close look at the regional outlook for the next four years and finds a decidedly unfavorable growth-inflation mix. 

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Abe Scrambles To Keep ADB Relevant As Xi Dispenses "Belt" Whipping

The global economic order is shifting beneath the feet of Washington and Tokyo as Xi marches ahead with "One Belt, One Road" and prepares to extend the first loans from the China-led development bank that embarrassed the Obama administration earlier this year. 

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Weekend Reading: Differing Diatribes

Importantly, while the "bias" of the market is to the upside, primarily due to the psychological momentum that "stocks are the only game in town," the mounting risks are clearly evident. From economic to earnings-related weakness, the "bullish underpinnings" are slowly being chipped away.

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Inflation, Unemployment Soar As Brazil Remains Trapped In Stagflationary Nightmare

Just a day after a dismal read on GDP, the latest data out of Brazil shows a spike in both inflation and unemployment, as the country's economic outlook continues to deteriorate at an alarming pace.

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Frontrunning: November 19

  • Soothing Fed sounds send shares, emerging markets higher (Reuters)
  • Belgian Police Conduct Raids in Connection With Paris Attacks (WSJ)
  • The Paris Attacks Can’t Lead to a Closed Europe (BBG)
  • Alleged Mastermind of Paris Attacks Was ‘Emir of War’ (WSJ)
  • U.S. Eyes Russia-Iran Split in Bid to End Syria Conflict (WSJ)
  • Despite tensions, Asia-Pacific nations close ranks against terrorism (Reuters)
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Brazil GDP In "Free Fall Mode", Get Ready For "Terrible" Q3 Print, Analysts Warn

Well, we got a look at the IBC-Br monthly real GDP indicator on Wednesday and as you can probably imagine given the stagflationary nightmare currently unfolding in Brazil, the picture was not pretty. If fact, we just witnessed the largest Y/Y contraction in series history.

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"If You Get Enquiries Just Obfuscate And Stonewall" - How Barclays Rigged The FX Market For Seven Years

Do not involve Sales in anyway [sic] whatsoever.  In fact avoid mentioning the existence of the whole BATS Last Look functionality.  If you get enquiries just obfuscate and stonewall.... for the future, sales absolutely 100% do not know about the existence of last look and it shouldn’t be a concern for them...  IF any client does call up about a rejected trade . . . it is important that you state in any communication ‘THE TRADE WAS REJECTED BECAUSE OF LATENCY.’ . . . DO NOT talk about P&L on trades."

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Frontrunning: November 18

  • Security jitters drive European investors back to safe havens (Reuters)
  • Global Anti-ISIS Alliance Begins to Emerge (WSJ)
  • Merkel says cancelling soccer match was 'responsible' decision (Reuters)
  • Paris attacker may have had accomplice on journey through Balkans (Reuters)
  • Drop Assad demands if you want to unite against Islamic State: Russia to West (Reuters)
  • Putin sets up commission to combat terrorism financing (Reuters)
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DoubleLine's Gundlach Warns "These Markets Are Falling Apart"

The odds of a December rate hike have slipped in recent days from over 70% intraday to 64.0% today as, while economists remain convinced that rates will rise in December, traders appear a little less confident. One of the most outspoken - having doubted The Fed (and questioned the economy's ability to handle even a 25bps rate hike) since Spring - DoubleLine Capital co-founder Jeffrey Gundlach said on Sunday that the Fed may hesitate to raise rates given rocky economic and financial conditions making it clear, as Reuters reports, "certainly [a Fed] No-Go is more likely than most people think. These markets are falling apart."

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