- Global stocks slide as yen, euro gains question policy potency (Reuters)
- U.S. Index Futures Signal Stock Losses as AIG Drops on Earnings (BBG)
- EU Sees Weaker Growth in Eurozone and Wider EU as China Slowdown Weighs (WSJ)
- Euro Set for Longest Run of Gains Since 2013 as Fed Focus Fades (BBG)
- German Bonds Advance as EU Cuts Euro-Area Inflation Outlook (BBG)
- Trump, Clinton press closer to general election showdown (AP)
- Acela primaries: Winners, losers (Hill)
- Trump Says He's `Presumptive Nominee' as Clinton Wins Four (BBG)
- In the battle for Hollywood endorsements - and cash - Clinton rules (Reuters)
- U.S. Oil Rises Above $45 a Barrel for First Time Since November (BBG)
- Spin: Near-Zero Growth Happens Often in Slow-Motion U.S. Economy (BBG)
For those who thought that the world's biggest company losing over $40 billion in market cap in an instant on disappointing Apple earnings, would have been sufficient to put a dent in US equity futures, we have some disappointing news: with just over 7 hours until the FOMC reveals its April statement, futures are practically unchanged, even though the Nasdaq appears set for an early bruising in the aftermath of what is becoming a disturbing quarter for tech companies. Instead of tech leading, however, the upside has once again come from the energy complex where moments ago WTI rose above $45 a barrel for the first time since November after yesterday's unexpected 1.07 million barrel API inventory drawdown.
With the Fed decision just one day away, followed the very next day by the increasingly more irrational BOJ, stocks had no desire to make significant moves and overnight's boring session was the result, as European stocks and U.S. index futures rose modestly but mostly hugged the flatline while Asian declined 0.2% for a third day as raw-material shares declined and Tokyo equities slumped before central bank meetings in the U.S. and Japan this week. China’s stocks rose the most in almost two weeks, up 0.6% but failed to rise above 3000 on the Shanghai Composite, in thin trading.
- Obama sending more forces to Syria to consolidate gains against Islamic State (Reuters)
- Global stocks, dollar stumble ahead of Fed, BOJ meetings (Reuters)
- The Rise and Deadly Fall of Islamic State’s Oil Tycoon (WSJ)
- Oil Producers Lock In Once-Snubbed Prices (WSJ)
- Yellen's Scope for Summer Rate Hike Widens as ECB Signals a Hold (BBG)
- 11,000 jobs at risk as BHS teeters on brink (The Times)
- World stocks gain along with oil, clock ticks down to ECB (Reuters)
- Draghi Expected to Defend ECB in Face of German Criticism (WSJ)
- Trump, Cruz, Kasich seek to win over Republican leaders at party meeting (Reuters)
- Donald Trump Plans to Adopt More-Traditional Campaign Tactics (WSJ)
- Japan, Not Germany, Leads World in Negative-Yield Bonds (BBG)
Are interest rates low because of the action of central banks or because of unresolved debt deflation?
Is Deutsche's gaming of the London precious metals fix the same thing as - or even tangentially related to - the main manipulation of the gold price, which is the practice of central banks “lending” their gold to big commercial banks, which then sell that gold on the open market to depress the price?
Failure to proceed with crude output freeze plan seen as a "serious blow" to oil-market sentiment by Energy Aspects; Barclays expects mounting tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran to boost volatility. Separately, Kuwait oil workers strike viewed as price-supportive. Here, courtesy of Bloomberg, is a summary of what analysts have said so far on meeting’s outcome as well as comments on Kuwait:
OPEC, NON-OPEC MINISTERS FINISH OIL TALKS IN DOHA, NO AGREEMENT - RTRS
OIL PRODUCERS END DOHA TALKS: OMAN MINISTER - BBG
DOHA OIL TALKS FINISH WITHOUT FREEZE DEAL: NIGERIAN MINISTER - BBG
OIL-PRODUCING NATIONS WILL MEET AGAIN, PROBABLY JUNE: NIGERIA - BBG
As many traders are terrified that the next round of layoffs will cost them their job, it's not all doom and gloom especially when one recalls that, on average, most traders are paid far better than 99% of all other jobs. And some are certainly more equal than others. Below we present a breakdown of the highest paying trading jobs, based on an analysis from Emolument, which has examined London traders' salary and bonus data at Director level to provide a glimpse into their remuneration profiles
- Global stocks, dollar and oil cool ahead of Doha meeting (Reuters)
- Oil Falls Before Doha as Global Markets Brace for Weekend Risk (BBG)
- China Growth Slows; Revival Policies Appear to Gain Traction (WSJ)
- White House hopefuls Clinton, Sanders joust in Brooklyn brawl (Reuters)
- Trump talks up 'New York values' as protesters demonstrate against him (Reuters)
- Sanders Can’t Clarify Wall Street Plan in Testy Clinton Debate (BBG)
Heading into tonight's datagasm from China, SHCOMP tumbled and Yuan was strengthening (while money-market rates were ticking higher). Then it began... Retail Sales BEAT (+10.5% vs. +10.4% exp), Industrial Production BEAT (+6.8% vs. +5.9% exp), Fixed Asset Investment BEAT (+10.7 vs. +10.4% exp) and last - but not least - GDP MEET (+6.7 vs. +6.7% exp) - though still the weakest since Q1 2009. The post-data reaction was initially opsitive but then faded fast as reality hit on the lack of stimulus coming. Now The Fed has a problem - solid inflation, solid wages, solid jobs, and no global turmoil - we are going to need some turmoil soon or rates are going up.
In another quiet overnight session, the biggest - and unexpected - macro news was the surprise monetary easing by Singapore which as previously reported moved to a 2008 crisis policy response when it adopted a "zero currency appreciation" stance as a result of its trade-based economy grinding to a halt. As Richard Breslow accurately put it, "If you need yet another stark example of the fantasy storytelling we amuse ourselves with, juxtapose today’s Monetary Authority of Singapore policy statement with the storyline that the Asian stock market rally intensified on renewed optimism over the global economy. Singapore is a proxy for trade and economic growth ground to a halt last quarter." The Singapore announcement led to a sharp round of regional currency weakness just as the dollar appears to have bottomed and is rapidly rising.