Poorer oil-producing countries which took out loans to be repaid in oil when the price was higher are having to send three times as much to respect repayment schedules now prices have fallen. But while these already poor and corrupt OPEC nations were the biggest losers, one country was a huge winner, the country that provided the billions in virtually risk-free, oil-collateralized loans to any country that requested them. China.
With banker bonuses set to drop this year, it should be no surprise that things are not all sunshine and roses on Wall Street. After 30 years of dramatically outperforming Main Street, Wall Street wages may be set for some mean-reversion as JPMorgan analysts take an ax to the biggest global investment banks' earnings. As Bloomberg reports, "quiet trading floors" are set to depress global investment banks’ second-quarter revenue 24 percent, with weakness across equities, interest rates, currencies, with a regionally-driven weakness from Asia.
It has been more of the same overnight, as global stocks piggybacked on the strong US close and rose despite the lack of good (or bad) macro news, propelled higher by the two usual suspects: a higher USDJPY and a even higher oil, if mostly early on in the trading session.
- Nerves dominate before U.S. retail numbers (Reuters)
- Stocks Give Up Week’s Gains as Commodities Fall; Yen, Bonds Rise (BBG)
- Apple Invests $1 Billion in Didi, Uber’s Rival in China (WSJ)
- Dollar hits two-week high, posts best fortnight since February (Reuters)
- OPEC Sees Rival Oil Production Declining as Markets Rebalance (WSJ)
- Trump on best behavior as he woos Republicans but differences remain (Reuters)
- Trump’s Early Backers on Capitol Hill See Their Profile Raised (WSJ)
- Oil prices rise toward six-month high, tightening supply (Reuters)
- EIA says outlook for oil brightens as output disruptions erode surplus (Reuters)
- Investors Fleeing $9 Trillion of Negative Yields Fuel Bond Binge (BBG)
- Beaten-Up Hedge Fund Billionaires Reminisce About 'Golden Age' (BBG)
The 24 Banks now have a summary NET short position that is more extreme than ever. Will The Banks lose this time? Or will The Banks simply be successful again in rigging prices lower so that they can profitably cover their ill-gotten shorts?
Following a scramble by European nations to issue ultra long-dated government paper, which saw France and Belgium sell 50-year bonds last month, while Ireland and Belgium went all the way and issued century bonds, with even Switzerland locking in 42-year paper yesterday, moments ago Spain was the latest to extend maturities all the way to 2066 when it sold €3 billion in 50 year bonds at Midswaps+50. According to MarketNews, the issue was over 3 times oversubscribed with the orderbook closing at €10.5 billion.
An Update From the Front Lines ...
- China stocks plunge again as hopes for economic recovery fade (Reuters)
- European Stock Gains Defy China Data That Hurt Metals; Oil Rises (BBG)
- Yen falls after Tokyo warning (Reuters)
- Soros Chart Signals BOJ Bond Buying Already Enough to Weaken Yen (BBG)
- Dollar Jump Catches Traders Short in One More Currency Calamity (BBG)
- Even China's Party Mouthpiece Is Warning About Debt (BBG)
While markets remain relatively subdued ahead of tomorrow's nonfarm payrolls report, after several days of losses in US stocks which pushed the S&P500 to three week lows, overnight markets ignored the latest weak data out of China where the Caixin Services PMI was the latest indicator to disappoint (dropping from 52.2 to 51.8), and instead focused on crude, which rebounded from yesterday's post inventory-build lows and briefly printed above $45/bbl over uncertainty related to the impact of Canada wildfires on production and how long will last. The bounce in WTI has meant Brent briefly traded at parity with West Texas for the first time in 6 weeks.
Just a month after the UK's luxury housing bubble burst, it appears the nice friendly bankers at Barclays are looking for some scapegoats to flip their condos to. That the housing recovery has been driven primarily by a steady flow of foreign investment, and not necessarily the underlying economic fundamentals improving is becoming clear to everyone and so in what appears a desperate act of deja vu, Barclays has brought back the 100 per cent mortgage - the first major bank to do so since the last financial crisis - to keep the ponzi dream alive just a little longer.
- Donald Trump’s Win Just Latest Tremor Shaking GOP (WSJ)
- Trump Becomes Presumptive Republican Nominee as Cruz Exits Race (BBG)
- How 'Stop Trump' failed to halt the Republican front-runner (Reuters)
- Islamic State seeks news blackout in Mosul as Iraqi army nears (Reuters)
- U.S. gathers allies on next steps in Islamic State fight (Reuters)
- Global stocks slide as yen, euro gains question policy potency (Reuters)
- U.S. Index Futures Signal Stock Losses as AIG Drops on Earnings (BBG)
- EU Sees Weaker Growth in Eurozone and Wider EU as China Slowdown Weighs (WSJ)
- Euro Set for Longest Run of Gains Since 2013 as Fed Focus Fades (BBG)
- German Bonds Advance as EU Cuts Euro-Area Inflation Outlook (BBG)