Will Draghi Avert A Tantrum: The Full ECB Checklist

Draghi will make clear that tapering has not yet even been considered. He will emphasize that the program runs until March, at least, and so they have plenty of time to plan the exit. There’ll be no taper-tantrum today. Far from tapering, it’s likely that the Asset Purchase Program will be prolonged even further beyond March, although perhaps not formally so at this meeting. An extension will require technical adjustments that may need more time to work out.

ECB Preview: What Wall Street Thinks Mario Draghi Will Say Tomorrow

While expectations are low from Thursday's ECB meeting,  it may ultimately boil down to Draghi’s communication about asset purchases. Any hint of QE tapering would spur a large-scale sell-off in the rates market, according to most Wall Street strategists. Here is what else the sellside thinks will happen.

China Injects Economy With A Quarter Trillion In Debt In One Month, But The Full Story Is Much Scarier

"From a growth rate perspective, the speed of credit expansion is alarming. The current pace of credit growth in China is realistically in a range between 19% and 20%, well above the reported official TSF growth of 12.4% and new loan growth of 13.0% in September. Relative to GDP, China’s credit-to-GDP ratio currently in a range from 260% to 275% of GDP as of September 2016" - Barclays

Frontrunning: October 17

  • Bonds Selloff Spreads on Inflation Concern; Stocks Fall With Oil (BBG)
  • Trump charges U.S. election results being rigged 'at many polling places'  (Reuters)
  • CNN’s Stelter Blames Firebombing of NC Republican Office on Trump's 'Over Heated' Rhetoric (Newsbusters)
  • Britain, France seek EU condemnation of Russia over Syria (Reuters)
  • Inside the Secret Society of Wall Street's Top In-House Lawyers (BBG)

Global Stocks Pressured By Weak Earnings, Rate Hike Concerns; Pound Jumps

Global stocks are pressured this morning after a plunge in the Thai stock market and currency on concerns about the king's health and Fed hikes coupled with some more bad news out of Samsung which cut profit estimates by a third, while European stocks are suffering after Swedish telecom giant Ericsson issued a profit warning, sending its shares plunging 17%.

Barclays Warns The Party Is Almost Over As Payouts Exceed Cash Flow By $115 Billion

Corporate buybacks plus dividends will surpass $1 trillion in 2016, for the first time ever, according to Barclays calculations. This means that payouts to shareholders will surpass total S&P500 cash flow by a whopping $115 billion. And with corporate balance sheets increasing encumbered, Barclays believes that the rate of payouts, rising at 20% in recent years, is about to grind to a halt, meaning that for stocks, the "party is almost over."

Global Stocks Decline On Samsung Woes; Rising Dollar Pressures Oil

Global markets and US equity futures fell on Samsung Galaxy Note 7 contagion concern, while the dollar rose to its strongest level in 11 weeks and U.S. bonds declined as investors boosted wagers that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates this year.

Ray Dalio Warns A 1% Rise In Yields Would Lead To Trillions In Losses

"... it would only take a 100 basis point rise in Treasury bond yields to trigger the worst price decline in bonds since the 1981 bond market crash. And since those interest rates are embedded in the pricing of all investment assets, that would send them all much lower."

US Futures Pressured By European Weakness; Oil Flat, Dollar Rises

For the fourth day in a row, US traders arrive at their desks with US equity futures largely rangebound if with a modestly heavy bias, pressured by some recent weakness in European stocks, where DB continues to post modest gains following yesterday's report that Germany is pursuing "discrete talks" over the fate of the German lender. Oil has regained earlier losses following comments by Algeria's oil minister who said that OPEC could cut 1% more than agreed upon while sterling continues to slide on growing concerns of a "hard Brexit."

Florida Faces "Biggest Evacuation Ever" As Hurricane Matthew Looms

Things in Florida just went to '11' as, following his declaration of a state of emergency, Governor Rick Scott warned the state could be facing its “biggest evacuation ever.” Local services warned, "failure to adequately shelter may result in serious injury, loss of life or immense human suffering."

Frontrunning: October 5

  • ECB 'taper' talk hits stocks, sterling hits 31-year low (Reuters)
  • Crude Rises to Three-Month High After U.S. Stockpiles Plunge (BBG)
  • Gross Says He Shortened Duration on Europe After Taper News (BBG)
  • Chicago Fed's Evans 'fine' with December hike if data stays firm (Reuters)
  • Euro zone business growth at 21-month low in September (Reuters)
  • Deutsche Bank Brings Too-Big-to-Fail Quandary Home to Merkel (BBG)

European, EM Stocks Slide On ECB Taper Concerns; US Futures Flat

With China on holiday, overnight sessions remain relatively quiet: at this moment, S&P500 futures are little changed as European stocks fall for first day in seven, on yesterday's concern that the ECB is moving toward tightening monetary policy; Asian indices rose slightly for third day. WTI climbs to $49.40, the highest since June 30 after yesterday's surprisingly large API crude draw report.