Barclays

“A positive scenario requires almost everything to go right from now on,” BofAML says, adding that “Greece needs to receive new funding before the end of June, otherwise it will not be able to repay the IMF on June 30 … which would put ELA access of Greek banks at risk.” 

In an election that was, essentially, a litmus test for Recep Tayyip Erdogan's plans to expand his powers, voters dealt the Turkish President and his Justice and Development Party (A.K.P.) a stinging blow at the ballot box on Sunday.

Emboldened by its recent “unprecedented” prosecutorial success, the DoJ will now pursue a fresh round of MBS-related settlements with banks that knowingly packaged and sold shoddy CDOs. Banks expected to settle in coming months include Barclays PLC, Credit Suisse Group AG, Deutsche Bank AG, HSBC Holdings PLC, Royal Bank of Scotland Group PLC,UBS AG and Wells Fargo & Co.

"Under severe capital controls, redenomination and nationalisation risk rises. The Greek banks would be most at risk, while the two largest non-financial issuers could potentially continue to service their external debt even after a redenomination of domestic liquidity and revenues. Such a scenario also poses major risks to GGBs and other EGB markets"...

It’s almost a foregone conclusion that OPEC won’t cut its production levels at its June 5 meeting in Vienna. Anyone needing strong evidence, if not proof, of this need only listen to Ali al-Naimi, the architect of the cartel’s effort to reclaim market share. In fact, some observers say OPEC not only won’t cut overall production levels from 30 million barrels a day to shore up prices, but may even increase them.

At the post-ECB presser, Mario Draghi will likely discuss volatility in euro bond markets, inflation expectations, Greece, ECB flexibility on PSPP implementation, and the economic outlook for the eurozone. Expect security to be tighter at today's event.

• Obama signs bill reforming surveillance program (Reuters)
• Tsipras to meet Juncker in Brussels for talks on agreement (AFP)
• Spot the irony: OECD cuts global growth forecast, says recovery taking hold (Reuters)
• The Secret Money Behind Vladimir Putin's War Machine (BBG)
• Companies' Borrowing Spree Darkens Stock Market Future (BBG)
• How OPEC Hurt Big Oil (WSJ)
• What's OPEC Going to Do With Iran's Million Barrels a Day? (BBG)
• Draghi’s Europe Looks Healthiest for Years Despite Greece (BBG)
• Bund yields inch higher, euro holds ahead of ECB (Reuters)

Will global QE carry on forever...the next month may give out some clues..will it be Junemaggedon after we had May-hem??

Welcome to SmartKnowledgeU Podcast #10, Free Your Mind. For many of us, almost every single belief we hold about religion, politics, financial markets, war, law, morality was fed to us by another human being, and not something that we arrived upon from our own path of critical thought.

• Senate lets NSA spy program lapse, at least for now (Reuters)
• Draghi Deflation Relief Means Little With Greek Threat Unsolved (BBG)
• Tepid factory data add to Asian gloom (FT)
• Citigroup Likely to Close Banamex USA (WSJ)
• Frugality of High Earners in U.S. Shows Long Shadow of Recession (BBG)
• Greece’s Tsipras Warns Bell May Toll for Europe (BBG)
• Carnegie Mellon Reels After Uber Lures Away Researchers (WSJ)
• Romário leads drive for Brazilian probe into Fifa (FT)
• Faster than China? India's road, rail drive could lay doubts to rest (Reuters)

On Sunday, PM Alexis Tsipras penned a lengthy statement expressing his frustration at creditors’ insistence on presenting what he calls “absurd proposals” even as the Greek delegation has gone most of the way towards meeting the troika’s demands. "Judging from the present circumstances, it appears that this new European power is being constructed, with Greece being the first victim. To some, this represents a golden opportunity to make an example out of Greece. If some, however, think or want to believe that this decision concerns only Greece, they are making a grave mistake. I would suggest that they re-read Hemingway’s masterpiece, 'For Whom the Bell Tolls.'"

Recall that back in December it was first reported that both Deutsche and Barclays "algos" were busted for FX rigging: something we alleged was taking place about 3 years ago. And now, six months later, exchanges are finally admitting that this too conspiracy theory was in reality fact, and quietly have started to clean up their game before the DOJ comes knocking. As the WSJ reports, Thomson Reuters Corp. and BATS Global Markets Inc. will limit the practice known as “last look", also known as quasi-FX spoofing, on their platforms in coming weeks "in a move aimed at increasing transparency in the foreign-exchange market.""

With just 10 days until a June 5 IMF payment that Athens almost certainly will not make unless it strikes a deal for the disbursement of more bailout funds, things just got quite a bit more interesting on the EU political front after Spain’s Popular Party was dealt a dramatic electoral blow on Sunday by the leftist Podemos and center-right Ciudadanos.

"It is troubling enough to consistently grant waivers for criminal misconduct.  It is an order of magnitude more troubling to refuse to enforce our own explicit requirements for such waivers.   This type of recidivism and repeated criminal misconduct should lead to revocations of prior waivers, not the granting of a whole new set of waivers.  We have the tools, and with the tools the responsibility, to empower those at the top of these institutions to create meaningful cultural shifts, yet we refuse to use them.  I am concerned that the latest series of actions has effectively rendered criminal convictions of financial institutions largely symbolic."

• U.S. vows to continue patrols after China warns spy plane (Reuters)
• Bank of Japan Chief Cheers On Tokyo’s Surging Stocks (WSJ)
• Merkel Stamps Out Optimism on Greece After Tsipras Talks (BBG)
• Greece sees reforms deal with lenders in next 10 days (Reuters)
• Why Greece’s Syriza party is not sticking to the script on an IMF deal (Channel4)
• Why Does Putin Care Who Runs a Tiny Balkan Nation? Gas Pipelines (BBG)
• U.S. Stock-Index Futures Are Little Changed Before Yellen Speech (BBG)
• German Business Confidence Declines as Risks Cloud Outlook (BBG)