Barclays

Hedging basic equity positions with options is nothing new. Buying Puts or selling calls to protect or enhance your position is not uncommon. The relative price that is paid (or received) for that protection is the implied volatility - it is the lever with which supply and demand for protection is turned. Strategies to hedge large equity positions have become more and more complex (as more and more complex instruments have become available). A more advanced strategy is to buy risk-reversals (long out-of-the-money VIX calls against short out-of-the-money VIX puts) which creates a 'synthetic long volatility position' to hedge the long equity underlying position. This strategy has been very successful in hedging downside in the S&P 500 since the crisis began. The last few weeks has seen the return from the hedged strategy converge to the S&P 500's performance and we suspect this has been the trigger for exits. This unwind of a very popular risk-reversal hedge in VIX options is implicitly like selling volatility - hence the dramatic outperformance of front-month vol even as stocks and credit are not soaring to such highs. Watching the skew between VIX calls and puts may give us some sign that this exuberant compression is over.

There is a strange delayed reaction between the initial exposure of weakness in the financial system and the public’s realization of the truth, sort of like Wile E. Coyote dashing off a cliff in the cartoons only to continue running in mid-air above the abyss below.  It is a testament to the fact that beyond the math, there is an undeniable power of psychology in our economy.  The investment world naively believes it can fly, even with the weight of endless debt around its ankles, and for a very short time, that pure delirious oblivious belief sustains the markets.  Eventually, though, gravity always triumphs over fantasy…

• Who Needs the Euro When You Can Pay With Deutsche Marks? (WSJ)
• Now it's personal and ad hominem: Is German Economist Exacerbating Euro Crisis? (Spiegel)
• Bernanke Outlines Range Of Options For Additional Easing (Bloomberg)
• Italy's Monti says serious worry Sicily region may default (Reuters)
• Libor ‘structurally flawed’, says Fed (FT)
• Some Firms Opt to Bring Manufacturing Back to U.S. (WSJ)
• ECB Signals Support for Easing Irish Debt Terms (WSJ)
• China’s Wen Warns Of Severe Job Outlook As Growth Yet To Return (Bloomberg)
• Hollande scraps tax breaks on overtime (WSJ)
• China’s June Home Prices Rebound As Sentiment Improves (Bloomberg)

When the Fed released its "trove" of materials confirming that the Fed indeed knew that the Barclays was manipulating its Libor submissions (amusingly explained by Ben Bernanke before Senate today that "the employee had no idea what Libor is in that case"), few were surprised, but more were confused why the congressional inquiry focused solely on the Fed's interactions with British Barclays, instead of focusing on the three domestic banks that were part of the BBA's USD Libor fixing committee.Sure enough, the 3 US banks on the USD Libor fixing committee were just dragged into the fray: "Representative Randy Neugebauer, a Texas Republican and chairman of the oversight and investigations panel of the U.S. House Financial Services Committee said he intends to request correspondence between the Fed and the three U.S. banks on the Libor-setting panel, JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM), Citigroup Inc. (C) and Bank of America Corp., according to a congressional aide, who spoke on condition of anonymity because the details were not yet public."

Gold inched up on Tuesday ahead of Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's Congressional testimony today and Wednesday which should provide the market with information as to whether the US central bank will flood the market with more US paper.

• Lieborgate fallout: Bank of England Governor Sir Mervyn King faces MPs (Telegraph)
• Yahoo's brand new CEO to seek maternity leave shortly (NYT)
• China’s Foreign Investment Drops 6.9% In June (Bloomberg)
• Falling property investment drives China H1 FDI drop (Reuters)
• German Court Delays Ruling on Fund (WSJ)
• Fed's George Says U.S. Growth May Not Exceed 2% in 2012 (Bloomberg)
• China Echoes 2009 Stimulus Planned Railway Spending Boost (Bloomberg)
• ZEW: Investor Outlook For German Econ At Six-Month Low (MNI)
• Fed Shifts Focus To Jobs As Unemployment Stalls Above 8% (Bloomberg)
• Goldman Builds Private Bank (WSJ) - lock in those deposits asap
• UniCredit, Intesa Among 13 Italian Banks Cut By Moody’s (Bloomberg)

On the last day of May, when we first learned via Bloomberg that there was even the scantest likelihood that JPM may have been massaging its CDS marks within the (London-based of course) CIO organization - the backbone of hundreds of billions in notional exposure, and thus a huge counterfeited benefit to trader bonuses and corporate earnings - we wrote, "The Second Act Of The JPM CIO Fiasco Has Arrived - Mismarking Hundreds Of Billions In Credit Default Swaps" in which we explained precisely how this activity would and did take place, precisely why other traders caught doing the same are on the verge of being thrown in jail, precisely why everyone else does it, and precisely why the biggest CDS self-reporting and client/banker owned-organization (this is where images of Libor should appear), MarkIt, may well be implicated in everything - very much in the same way that the BBA is the heart of Lie-borgate. Because unlike all other allegations of impropriety, most of which rely on Level 2 and Level 3 assets whose valuations are in the eye of the oh so very sophisticated beholder (in this case JPM) who has complex DCFs and speaks confidently when explaining marks to naive, stupid outsiders (in other words baffles with bullshit), when it comes to one of the last places where Mark to Market is still applicable and used: the OTC CDS market, and where daily P&L records are kept, it will take any regulator, enforcer, or criminal investigator precisely 1 minute to find out if there was fraud, or gambling, going on here. Most importantly, it opened up the firm to a criminal investigation. Which as Reuters reports, is precisely what has now happened.

Life ain’t fair

On Friday morning, Jamie Dimon as head of the bank many (well, some: Zero Hedge) expect will be the first casualty when the Liebor scandal finally breaks on US soil, which it will within 2-3 weeks, faced several questions on his Q2 conference call trying to extract more information from the bank as to where it may stand in the Liebor scandal. Jamie was not only not very talkative, but refused to answer questions why by default should have had an answer - i.e., internal controls, which after the discovery 10 minutes prior to the earnigs release that the bank had found a material internal controls weakness vis-a-vis CDS marks, is probably rather critical. Of course, the market being as headline drive as it is, took the lack of further Libor clarity as an "all clear" and send the stock up 6%. That may well have been rather premature. Because as the NYT reports, criminal charges are coming, which may explain JPM's reticence to say much if anything while it is the subject of a multi-year long criminal investigation which is about to break.

In a memo released to Barclays staff, outgoing Chairman Marcus Agius appeared to throw the rest of his Liebor-fixing cohort banks under the bus, noting that "As other banks settle with authorities, and their details become public, and various governments' inquiries shed more light, our situation will eventually be put in perspective" by the fines handed out to other international banks. As Sky News reports, it appears 90 million emails and 1 million voicemails will be made available to the independent body spearheading the Liebor probe - the details of which are being finalized this weekend. While the rest of the memo focused on the restoration of Barclays' reputation and the "trust that has been so badly damaged", they quite clearly hinted at its rivals were likely to be hit with even harder fines that the GBP290 million imposed on Barclays. They add, as if we did not need reminding that "the macro-environment remains febrile, especially in Europe. We have to remain vigilant on balance sheet exposures and risk management. In short, our focus must remain on capital, funding and liquidity; improving returns; and driving income growth." But we can't help but feel a Charles Prince-esque defense coming here that 'everyone was doing it' and while the music still played, we kept 'dancing'.

Nice equity (and commodities) close (DAX futures peaking at +2%).

Didn’t seem to impress EGBs, though. Nor credit, as it stands. No ROn mode behaviour here. And certainly not for Italy.

Here are the choice highlights from the Fed datadump as we see them.

From Barclays to NYFed:

"Libor's going to come in at.. .. three-month libor is going to come in at 3.53.

 

...it's a touch lower than yesterday's but please don't believe it. It's absolute
rubbish. I, I, I'm, putting my libor at 4%

 

...I think the problem is that the market so desperately wants libors down it's actually putting wrong rates in."

The Fed has released the first of its Lieborgate treasure trove: "Attached are materials related to the actions of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (“New York Fed”) in connection with the Barclays-LIBOR matter.  These include documents requested by Chairman Neugebauer of the U.S. House of Representatives, Committee on Financial Services, Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations. Chairman Neugebauer requested all transcripts that relate to communications with Barclays regarding the setting of interbank offered rates from August 2007 to November 2009. Please note that the transcript of conversations between the New York Fed and Barclays was provided by Barclays pursuant to recent regulatory actions, and the New York Fed cannot attest to the accuracy of these records. The packet also includes additional materials that document our efforts in 2008 to highlight problems with LIBOR and press for reform. We will continue to review our records and actions and will provide updated information as warranted."

Just because the market is so stupid it completely ignores what the news of the day is: namely that JPM engaged in what Jacob Zemansky on TV just called criminal behavior when it consistently mismarked its CDS book, as it itself admitted 10 minutes before releasing its earnings today, an act that in itself is nothing short of what Barclays is in the 10th circle of hell for due to blowing up Lieborgate sky high, here is a stark reminder of what happened the last time a trader was caught fudging his CDS book...

Many Other Core Economic Figures Manipulated As Well