Barclays

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Frontrunning: January 7





  • Twelve shot dead in Paris (Reuters)
  • Eurozone Consumer Prices Fall for First Time Since 2009 (NYT)
  • Euro's Drop is a Turning Point for Central Banks Reserves (BBG)
  • How $50 Oil Changes Almost Everything (BBG)
  • Mercedes-Benz Moving U.S. Headquarters to Atlanta (WSJ)
  • Greek 10-Year Bond Yields Exceed 10% for First Time Since 2013 (BBG)
  • How Even Dairy Farmers Get Squeezed by Rigging in the $5.3 Trillion Currency Market (BBG)
  • AirAsia jet tail found underwater, black box may be close (Reuters)
  • Italy Unemployment Rises to New High (Bloomberg)
 
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Frontrunning: January 6





  • Average 10-year yield of U.S., Japan and Germany dropped below 1% for the first time ever: Free Money in Bond Markets Shows Global Economy Still Struggling (BBG)
  • Brent falls below $52 as oil hits new five and a half year lows (Reuters)
  • China Fast-Tracks $1 Trillion in Projects to Spur Growth (BBG)
  • Saudi Arabia Raises Price of Main Oil Grade for Asian Buyers (BBG)
  • Oilfield Writedowns Loom as Crude Slump Guts Drilling Values (BBG)
  • Biggest Oil-Rig Drop Since 2009 Spells Tough Year Ahead (BBG)
  • CIA says its inspector general is resigning at end of month (Reuters)
  • Pipeline IPOs Climb on Demand for Returns Immune to Oil (BBG)
  • Natural Gas No Savior for Investors Seeking Oil Refuge (BBG)
  • Euro zone economy ended 2014 in poor shape (Reuters)
 
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Frontrunning: January 5





  • Economists sceptical ECB bond-buying would revive eurozone (FT)
  • Indonesia naval captain says may have located missing plane's tail section (Reuters)
  • Oil hits five and a half year low under $55 (Reuters)
  • Samaras Warns of Euro Exit Risk as Greek Campaign Starts (BBG)
  • The death of active investing: Vanguard Sets Record Funds Inflow (WSJ) - thank you Fed
  • Oil Downturn Has Many Wondering How Lone Star State Will Weather a Bust (WSJ)
  • Hollande Says France Must Exceed 1% Economic Growth to Spur Jobs (BBG)
 
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Why Everyone Is About To Rush Into Subprime Mortgage Debt (Again)





If there is one thing the investing public has 'learned' in the last few years, it is 'no matter how bad the fundamentals, if it's been working, buy moar of it'. And so, it is with almost certain confidence that we should expect a resurgent flood of yield-chasing muppetry into no more egregious idiocy than the subprime-mortgage-debt market. As Bloomberg reports, the subprime-slime-backed securities that were created in the years before the financial crisis in 2008, which marked the last time they were issued, have gained almost 12% this year, or six times more than junk-rated corporate debt, according to Barclays. As one money 'manager' proclaims, "a lot of the uncertainty around the asset class has been taken away." Indeed, home prices will never go down ever again, right? (Just ignore this and this)

 
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Frontrunning: December 24





  • Russia says NATO turning Ukraine into 'frontline of confrontation' (Reuters)
  • Oil Drillers Under Pressure to Scrap Rigs to Cope With Downturn (BBG)
  • Demonstrators Defy NYC Mayor's Call to Suspend Police Protests (BBG)
  • U.S. to send more private contractors to Iraq (Reuters)
  • ISIS Shoots Down Jet From U.S.-Led Coalition, Syrian Monitors Say (NYT)
  • Russians Race to Secure Mortgages Before Costs Spiral (BBG)
  • Abe Brings in Former Soldier Nakatani as Defense Minister (BBG)
  • At Coke, Newest Flavor Is Austerity (WSJ)
  • Fear and retribution in Xi's corruption purge (Reuters)
  • UBS Raises Flag on China’s $1 Trillion Overseas Debt Pile (BBG)
 
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Frontrunning: December 23





  • Christmas rally enters sixth day in Europe (Reuters)
  • Downing North Korea's Internet not much of a scalp (Reuters)
  • North Korean Internet Access Restored After Hours-Long Outage (BBG)
  • At U.N. council, U.S. calls life in North Korea 'living nightmare' (Reuters)
  • Ukraine Cuts Gold Reserve to Nine-Year Low as Russia Buys (BBG)
  • De Blasio Seeks to Heal Rifts With Police After Officers Slain (BBG)
  • Oil steady around $60 on hopes of strong U.S. data (Reuters) - so it fell below $60 because...
  • Australian Dollar Hits Four and a Half Year Low on Chine Growth Worries (Reuters)
 
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2014 Year In Review (Part 2): Will 2015 Be The Year It All Comes Tumbling Down?





Despite the authorities' best efforts to keep everything orderly, we know how this global Game of Geopolitical Tetris ends: "Players lose a typical game of Tetris when they can no longer keep up with the increasing speed, and the Tetriminos stack up to the top of the playing field. This is commonly referred to as topping out."

"I’m tired of being outraged!"

 
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2014 Year In Review (Part 1): The Final Throes Of A Geopolitical Game Of Tetris





Every year, David Collum writes a detailed "Year in Review" synopsis full of keen perspective and plenty of wit. This year's is no exception. "I have not seen a year in which so many risks - some truly existential - piled up so quickly. Each risk has its own, often unknown, probability of morphing into a destructive force. It feels like we’re in the final throes of a geopolitical Game of Tetris as financial and political authorities race to place the pieces correctly. But the acceleration is palpable. The proximate trigger for pain and ultimately a collapse can be small, as anyone who’s ever stepped barefoot on a Lego knows..."

 
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The Biggest Economic Story Going Into 2015 Is Not Oil





Once again oil is not even the biggest story today. It’s plenty big enough by itself to bring down large swaths of the economy, but in the background there’s an even bigger tale a-waiting. Not entirely unconnected, but by no means the exact same story either. It’s like them tsunami waves as they come rolling in. It’s exactly like that. That is, in the wake of the oil tsunami, which is a long way away from having finished washing down our shores, there’s the demise of emerging markets. And we're not talking Putin, he’ll be fine, as he showed again yesterday in his big press-op. It’s the other, smaller, emerging countries that will blow up in spectacular fashion, and then spread their mayhem around. And make no mistake: to be a contender for bigger story than oil going into 2015, you have to be major league large. This one is.

 
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Frontrunning: December 19





  • Icahn, Paulson Suffer Large Losses as Energy-Related Bets Sour (WSJ)
  • Oil Investors Keep Betting Wrong on When Market Will Bottom (BBG)
  • U.S. to sell final $1.25 billion shares of Ally Financial from bailout (Reuters)
  • Ally Financial Gets Subpoena Related to Subprime Automotive Finance (WSJ)
  • Russia's parliament rushes through bill boosting banking capital (Reuters)
  • How a Memo Cost Big Banks $37 Billion (WSJ)
  • ECB considers making weaker euro zone states bear more quantitative easing risk (Reuters)
  • How the U.S. Could Retaliate Against North Korea (BBG)
 
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Frontrunning: December 18





  • Swiss National Bank Starts Negative Interest Rate of 0.25% to Stave Off Inflows (BBG)
  • Putin Strikes Uncompromising Stance Over Crisis Gripping Russia (BBG)
  • Sony cancels North Korea movie in apparent win for Pyongyang hackers (Reuters)
  • U.S. Said Set to Blame North Korea for Sony Cyber Attack (BBG)
  • China’s Short-Term Borrowing Costs Surge as Demand for Money Grows (WSJ)
  • Russia Currency Market Bends But Doesn’t Break (BBG)
  • Jeb Bush Puts Pressure on Chris Christie for 2016 (WSJ)
  • From joy to outrage, Florida's Cuban-Americans greet new U.S. policy (Reuters)
  • Russians Quit London Luxury Homes as Only Super-Rich Stay (BBG)
 
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Frontrunning: December 17





  • Citigroup is pleased: Obama signs $1.1 trillion government spending bill (Reuters)
  • Oil holds below $60 as OPEC, Russia keep pumping (Reuters)
  • 5 Things to watch at the December Fed Meeting (WSJ)
  • Russia Tries Emergency Steps for 2nd Day to Stem Ruble Rout (BBG)
  • Ruble crisis could shake Putin's grip on power (Reuters)
  • Apple Curbs Russia Sales as McDonald’s Lifts Prices (BBG)
  • Traders Betting Russia’s Next Move Will Be to Sell Gold (BBG)
  • China Warms to a More Flexible Yuan (WSJ)
 
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