Barclays

On an almost daily basis, investors are reassured that a falling oil price is "unequivocally good" for the US economy. The "It's like a tax cut for the consumer"-meme dominates financial media while the impact on the Shale (or tight) oil industry is shrugged off blindly with "well breakevens are low, right?" As Barclays shows in the chart below, the breakeven price for oil to shut-in tight-oil supply varies by region (and corporation) adding that at $80/b WTI, most producers will sweat it out. But, they warn, if prices remain at these levels through 2015, it could compromise the significant potential new volumes that are needed to offset declines from existing wells. This new, higher-breakeven volume is small in 2015, but becomes much larger in 2016 (with a 17-25% plunge in earnings which would drastically reduce capex... and thus The US Economy).

• Barclays PLC
• HSBC Holdings PLC
• Royal Bank of Scotland Group PLC
• UBS AG
• Citigroup
• J.P. Morgan Chase
• Bank of America Corp. Bank of America

As noted over the past week there has been a massive shortage of precious metals - most notably silver which as of this moment is indefinitely unavailable at the US Mint - as a result of the tumble in the paper price, and following 8 days of sliding and negative 1 month GOFO rates, today the physical metal shortage surged, as can be seen by not only the first negative 6 month GOFO rate since last summer's much publicized gold shortage when China was gobbling up every piece of shiny yellow rock available for sale, but a 1 month GOFO of -0.1850%: the most negative it has been since 2001!

Central Banks shorting Gold and Silver to preserve their status as Masters of the Universe.

• From Yes We Can to Probably Not (BBG)
• How Mitch McConnell did it (Politico)
• Tough road ahead for Obama after Republicans seize Senate (Reuters)
• Election 2014: Who were the big winners and losers? (USA Today)
• GOP Senate Takeover Puts Fed on Hot Seat (WSJ), and other fables
• GOP Won by Recruiting the Right Candidates (WSJ)
• McCain could shake up U.S. defense in powerful new Senate role (Reuters)
• Investors Pulled Record Amount From Pimco’s Flagship Fund in October (WSJ)
• Taliban group threatens to attack India following border blast (Reuters)
• Oil Import Decline to U.S. Revealed by Louisiana as Truth (BBG)

The most bizarre story of the weekend was that of Bank of America's 29-year-old banker Rurik Jutting, who shortly after allegedly killing two prostitutes (and stuffing one in a suitcase), and called the cops on himself.  The answer, as the WSJ has revealed, is just as unsavory: "he had been part of a Bank of America team that specialized in tax-minimization trades that are under scrutiny from prosecutors, regulators, tax collectors and the bank’s own compliance department, according to people familiar with the matter and documents reviewed by The Wall Street Journal."

• Republicans expect gains, but many races close on election day (Reuters)
• Ahead of tough election, White House blames dismay with Washington (Reuters)
• On Election Day, a Tale of the Young and the Old (WSJ)
• Because the recovery: Sprint to Cut 2,000 Jobs as Mobile Customers Keep Leaving (BBG)
• Ukraine's rebel leader is sworn in, crisis deepens (Reuters)
• Brilliant: Burkina Faso Army Promises Religious Leaders It Will Step Down (BBG)
• More Unknowns Leave Central Banks Facing Greater Internal Strife (BBG)
• Scapegoat found: IBM to Change Leadership at Global Services Unit (WSJ)
• Explains why Europe just slashed its GDP forecast: Don’t Be Fooled by Warm Spell as Cold Air About to Return (BBG)

• To salvage his presidency, Obama faces pressure to reboot - but will he? (Reuters)
• Pro-Russian separatist Zakharchenko wins Ukraine rebel vote (Reuters)
• Russia's Recognition of Ukrainian Separatist Election Is 'Incomprehensible,' Germany Says (Moscow Times)
• Man Running World’s Biggest Wealth Fund Tackles China Riddle (BBG)
• Russian Supply Underpins Global Oil Glut (WSJ)
• Argentina accuses Procter & Gamble of tax fraud, says suspends operations (Reuters)
• ECB Skips Fireworks for Day One of New Role as Supervisor (BBG)
• HSBC Hit by $1.7 Billion of Provisions (WSJ)

While it is unclear whether it is due to the rare event that no central bank stepped in overnight with a massive liquidity injection or because the USDJPY tracking algo hasn't been activated (moments ago Abe's deathwish for the Japanese economy made some more progress with the USDJPY hitting new mult-year highs just shy of 113.6, on its way to 120 and a completely devastated Japanese economy), but European equities have traded in the red from the get-go, with investor sentiment cautious as a result of a disappointing the Chinese manufacturing report. More specifically, Chinese Manufacturing PMI printed a 5-month low (50.8 vs. Exp. 51.2 (Prev. 51.1)), with new orders down to 51.6 from 52.2, new export orders at 49.9 from 50.2 in September. Furthermore, this morning’s batch of Eurozone PMIs have failed to impress with both the Eurozone and German readings falling short of expectations (51.4 vs Exp. 51.8, Last 51.8), with France still residing in contractionary territory (48.5, vs Exp and Last 47.3).

The global economy is like a jetliner that needs all of its engines operational to take off and steer clear of clouds and storms. Unfortunately, as Nouriel Roubini tells The Guardian, only one of its four engines is functioning properly: the Anglosphere (the United States and its close cousin, the United Kingdom). As Roubini continues, the question is whether and for how long the global economy can remain aloft on a single engine. Weakness in the rest of the world implies a stronger dollar, which will invariably weaken US growth. The deeper the slowdown in other countries and the higher the dollar rises, the less the US will be able to decouple from the funk everywhere else, even if domestic demand seems robust. But it's not just the rest of the world that is decoupling from US growth... as the following uncomfortable chart shows, so is a crucial pillar of monetary policy transmission, consumer wealth perception, and economic stability - the US housing market itself.

The excesses of 1980s New York investment banking as captured best (and with just a dose of hyperbole) by Bret Easton Ellis's American Psycho may be long gone in the US, but they certainly are alive and well in other banking meccas, such as the one place where every financier wants to work these days (thanks to the Chinese government making it rain credit): Hong Kong. It is here that yesterday a 29-year-old British banker, Rurik Jutting, a Cambridge University grad and current Bank of America Merrill Lynch, former Barclays employee, was arrested in connection with the grisly murder of two prostitutes. One of the two victims had been hidden in a suitcase on a balcony, while the other, a foreign woman of between 25 and 30, was found lying inside the apartment with wounds to her neck and buttocks, the police said in a statement.

• Futures rally after BOJ ramps up stimulus (Reuters), Japan's central bank shocks markets with more easing as inflation slows (Reuters)
• Kuroda Jolts Markets With Assault on Deflation Mindset (BBG)
• Japan Mega-Pension Shifts to Stocks (WSJ)
• Russia Raises Interest Rates (WSJ)
• Oil-Price Drop Has Saudi Officials Divided (WSJ)
• Not anymore, the BOJ is here: Fed Exit Could Spark Slump in All Markets, ATP CEO Says (BBG)
• Wal-Mart Weighs Matching Online Prices from Amazon (WSJ)
• Euro-Area Inflation Picks Up From Five-Year Low on Stimulus (BBG)
• Big Banks Brace for Penalties in Probes  (WSJ)
• Ex-UBS Trader Defense Could Be Threat to U.S. Forex Cases (BBG)

First it was Libor, then gold, then dark pools, now for those who want a glimpse into just how for years bank FX traders, whether belonging to "The Cartel" or "The Bandits Club" or otherwise, colluded on trades around the daily fix, breached fiduciary duty, and generally engaged in illegal rigging of the world's largest market by volume, Bloomberg News had received a transcript of the instant-messages by various FX traders currently being investgated for FX rigging. Here are some excerpts.

• "Soaring consumer confidence" - How the Economy Is Stoking Voter Anger at Incumbent Governors (WSJ)
• Euro zone deflation worries shield German Bunds from upbeat Fed (Reuters)
• Greece’s Euro Dilemma Is Back as Minister Sees Volatility (BBG)
• Ukraine gas supplies in doubt as Russia seeks EU payment deal (Reuters)
• Sterling Lads Chats Show FX Traders Matching Fix Orders (BBG)
• NATO Tracks Large-Scale Russia Air Activity in Europe (WSJ)
• U.K. SFO Charges Ex-Tullett Prebon Broker in Libor-Rigging Probe (BBG)
• Jerusalem on edge after shooting of rabbi (FT)
• Israeli police kill Palestinian suspected of shooting far-right activist (Reuters)
• Samsung seeks smartphone revamp to arrest profit slide (Reuters)

To summarize (even though with liquidity as non-existant as it is, this may be completely stale by the time we go to print in a minute or so), European shares erase gains, fall close to intraday lows following the Fed’s decision to end QE. Banks, basic resources sectors underperform, while health care, tech outperform. Companies including Shell, Barclays, Aviva, Volkswagen, Alcatel-Lucent, ASMI, Bayer released earnings. German unemployment unexpectedly declines. The Italian and U.K. markets are the worst-performing larger bourses, the Swiss the best. The euro is weaker against the dollar. Greek 10yr bond yields rise; German yields decline. Commodities decline, with nickel, silver underperforming and wheat outperforming. U.S. jobless claims, GDP, personal consumption, core PCE due later.