Barclays

It has been a while since Creditex ran a CDS settlement auction of any note for two reasons: CDS no longer is a credible or legitimate method to hedge against default risk (see Greece, Banco Espirito Santo), thus making the stated purpose of CDS irrelevant, and when the default carries with it systematic risk ISDA will simply screw over CDS-holders and change terms whenever it sees fit following a few politically-connected phone calls, at which point good luck collecting on your "insurance." Which is why the just concluded Argentina CDS settlement auction following its bankruptcy last month, was a welcome reminder of what markets looked like in the BC (Before Central-planning) era.

• Confusion as Ukraine and Russia announce progress towards peace (Reuters)... but not for stock buying algos, they know everything
• Obama Expresses Skepticism About Possible Ukraine Cease-Fire (WSJ)
• Fighters Unwind in Russia Where Beer Doesn’t Spell Death (BBG)
• Despite dangers, U.S. journalist Sotloff was determined to record Arab Spring's human toll (Reuters)
• New Beheading Video Spurs Calls for Global Response (BBG)
• Christie’s Spending on Outside Lawyers Passes $50 Million (BBG)
• IEX to Apply for Exchange Status (WSJ)
• UK says not ruling out airstrikes against Islamic State, says hostage video genuine (Reuters)

• Ukraine Shifts to Defense Against Russian Incursion (WSJ)
• U.S. forces carry out operation against al-Shabaab in Somalia (Reuters)
• Bond Markets Tilt Toward Frankfurt as Draghi Negates Fed (BBG)
• Another "unexpectedly" - Swiss Economy Unexpectedly Stalls as Euro Area Takes Toll (BBG)
• Japan's 'Abenomics' feared in trouble as challenges build (Reuters)
• Germany Imposes Nationwide Ban on Uber's Cab-Hailing Service (WSJ)
• Japan's 'forward guidance', the GPIF, has "already begun a highly anticipated portfolio reshuffle" (WSJ)
• Detroit Brings Bankruptcy Plan to Court With Billionaires (BBG)
• Burger King has maneuvered to cut U.S. tax bill for years (Reuters)

• Putin Suggests Statehood for Southeast Ukraine as Sanctions Loom (BBG)
• Ukraine accuses Russia of 'open aggression' as rebels advance (Reuters)
• Ruble Hits New Record Low Against Dollar (WSJ)
• Further Russia Sanctions Seen `Almost Inevitable' (BBG)
• Europe holds nerve as Russia-Ukraine warnings ratchet up (Reuters)
• China manufacturing slowdown ripples through region (Reuters)
• Brazil enters recession in election blow to Rousseff (Reuters)
• Disruptive Hong Kong protests loom after China rules out democracy (Reuters)
• Coal Miners See Signs of Recovery as Prices Stabilize (WSJ)

Following the significantly weaker-than-expected spending data, the sell-side has begun its inglorious downgrades of the exuberant hockey-stick growth expectations they all extrapolated off Q1 lows... Goldman cut from +3.3% to +3.1% and Barclays slashed Q3 GDP expectations from +2.7% to a mere +2.2%.

• Obama Cools Talk of Strikes Against Islamic State in Iraq or Syria (WSJ)
• Separatists say will allow 'trapped' Ukrainian forces to withdraw (Reuters)
• Ukraine Fighting Surges as Russian-Backed Forces Gain (BBG)
• Missouri police sued for $40 million over actions in Ferguson protests (Reuters)
• BTFDividend stocks? Tesco Slumps as Retailer Slashes Dividend 75% on Forecast (BBG)
• In town halls, U.S. lawmakers hear voter anger over illegal migrants (Reuters)
• Obamacare’s Latest Threat Nears Turning Point in Court (BBG)
• Untangling the Mess of Austrian Bank Hypo (WSJ)
• The billion-dollar fall of the house of Espirito Santo (Reuters)
• Manhattan Condo Resale Prices Reach Record High (BBG)
• California Drought Squeezes Wells: State Considers Regulating Groundwater Use for First Time (WSJ)

• Clearly it's time to bomb Assad (on Qatar instructions): Islamic State executes dozens of Syrian army soldiers (Reuters)
• Ukraine Declares Russian Invasion as Sanctions Threat Raised (BBG)
• Ukraine Reports Russian Invasion on a New Front (NYT)
• German Unemployment Rises as Risks to Economy Build (BBG)
• Ebola spreads to Nigeria oil hub Port Harcourt (BBC)
• FBI Probes Possible Hacking Incident at J.P. Morgan (WSJ)
• FBI, Secret Service investigate reports of cyber attacks on U.S. banks (Reuters)
• If you like your Venezuela, you can stay in Venezuela: Airlines Abandon Fliers Amid Currency Dispute (WSJ)
• Boomer Wealth Dented by Mortgages Poses U.S. Risk (BBG)
• People Aren't Buying Guns (BusinessWeek)

If you like your de-escalation, you can keep your de-escalation. To think that heading into, and following the Russia-Ukraine "summit" earlier this week there was so much hope that the tense Ukraine civil war "situation" would somehow fix itself. Oh how wrong that thinking was considering overnight, following rebel separatists gains in the southeast of Ukraine which included the strategic port of Novoazvosk and which is "threatening to open up a new front in the war" including setting up a land corridor to Russia controlled-Crimea, Ukraine's president Poroshenko for the first time came out and directly accused Russia of an "Invasion", or at least a first time in recent weeks, saying he has convened the security council on the recent Russian actions.

If the big hope propelling both ES and S&P cash over 2,000 was the Ukraine-Russian talks, leading to some de-escalation and a thawing of Russian-German conditions, then it was clearly a dud. As the WSJ reports, "face-to-face talks between the Russian and Ukrainian presidents failed to produce a breakthrough for ending the conflict over eastern Ukraine, as Kiev released videos of captured Russian soldiers and rebels pushed toward a government-held city. The one-on-one session, which Ukraine's President Petro Poroshenko described as "tough and complex," ended early Wednesday after a day of talks on the crisis in the Belarusian capital of Minsk. Mr. Poroshenko said afterward that he would prepare a "road map" toward a possible cease-fire with the pro-Russia separatists." In other words, absolutely no progress. There was however escalation, when overnight the September Bund future rose as much as 36 ticks to 151.18, after Poland PM Tusk said “regular” Russian troops are operating in eastern Ukraine. And so we are back to square one, with concerns over Russia pushing European bonds to new record highs, in turn leading to more US Treasury buying, while a brand new rumor of more easing from the ECB, this time by Deutsche Bank, has propped up European equities, which like US futures are trading water around the critical 2000 level.

• That will teach the UAE who's boss: U.S. Won’t Consult Syria on Militant Strikes: White House (BBG)
• Putin Set to Meet Poroshenko as Ukraine Tensions Escalate (BBG)... but the de-escalation algo?
• Tim Hortons’ Canadian Fans Squeamish of American Hookup (BBG)
• Israeli air strikes target more Gaza high-rises (Reuters)
• How Steve Ballmer Became a Rookie Basketball Mogul (WSJ)
• Buffett to Help Finance Burger King Tax-Saving Deal (BBG)
• U.S. Factories Keep Losing Ground to Global Rivals (WSJ)
• Boehner, Camp Profit From Corporate Bid to Avoid U.S. Tax (BBG)
• Experimental U.S. hypersonic weapon destroyed seconds after launch (Reuters)
• The Neo-Neocons (WSJ)

It is unclear exactly why stock futures, bonds - with European peripheral yields hitting new record lows for the second day in a row - gold, oil and pretty much everything else is up this morning but it is safe to say the central banks are behind it, as is the "de-escalation" algo as a meeting between Russia and Ukraine begins today in Belarus' capital Minsk. Belarusian and Kazakhstani leaders will also be at the summit. Hopes of a significant progress on the peace talks were dampened following Merkel’s visit to Kiev over the weekend. The German Chancellor said that a big breakthrough is unlikely at today’s meeting. Russian FM Lavrov said that the discussion will focus on economic ties, the humanitarian crisis and prospects for a political resolution. On that note Lavrov also told reporters yesterday that Russia hopes to send a second humanitarian aid convoy to Ukraine this week. What he didn't say is that he would also send a cohort of Russian troops which supposedly were captured by overnight by the Ukraine army (more shortly).

It's been one of those days. First, the CME broke for 4 hours due to what some suggested were HFT connectivity issues, then Russia announced it would send a second humanitarian convoy into Ukraine (a big risk off move the first time it was announced, now not even an algo stirred), then Germany reported that the IFO Business Confidence/Climate dropped for the fourth consecutive month to 106.3 from 108.0, below the 107.0 expected, with the IFO chief economist stating that German GDP expectations are likely to be cut to 1.5% from 2.0% later in the year, and finally the French government collapsed due to disagreement over policy between finance minister Valls and economy minister Montebourg. All in all, a typical day in Europe's slow-motion implosion. So why are Spanish and Italian bank stocks soaring and European bond yields reaching new record highs? Simple: following Draghi's speech on Friday at Jackson Hole, which at initial read was hardly as dovish as many had expected, the FT and various other media outlets promptly changed the narrative and made it seem as if the ECB head was about to unleash QE.

In a historic first, three days ago, South Africa's Rand Merchant Bank, a division of FirstRand Bank Limited, announced it would issue the FirstRand Gold Bond, or a bond denominated in South African Krugerrand gold coins. In other words, for the first time "holding" gold will pay a dividend (or in this case, interest). Sound odd? Maybe because it is.

Confused by what Janet Yellen said? As it turns out, so is everyone else, where the prevailing sentiment across the sell-side analysts was that Yellen was not dovish enough. Then again, with expectations bordering on Yellen giving the "BTFATH" green light, there is no way she was not going to disappoint...

While today's key events were supposed to be the Jackson speeches first by Janet Yellen at 10:00am Eastern and then by Mario Draghi at 2:30 pm, Ukraine quickly managed to steal the spotlight yet again when moments after the first Russian humanitarian aid convoys entered Ukraine allegedly without permission, Kiev first accused Russia of staging a direct invasion, even if moments later it changed its tune and said it had allowed the convoy in to "avoid provocations." In other words, your daily dose of Ukraine disinformation, which initially managed to push futures down some 0.3% before futs regained virtually all losses on the subsequent clarifications. Expect much more conflicting, confusing and very provocative headlines out of Kiev as the local government and the CIA try to get their story straight.