Barclays

"When Gold Goes Above 1430 We Whack It"

As it goes in silver, so it goes in gold. In London at least.  In a bid to have UBS reinstated as a defendant in a London Gold Fix antitrust lawsuit, plaintiffs documents submitted to a New York Court last week include explosive chat room transcripts of UBS and traders from different banks encouraging each other to “push,” “smack,” and “whack” gold prices.

"Less Room To Run" - What Wall Street Is Paying Attention To In Today's Fed Statement

When it comes to today's Fed decision, there is little doubt: a 25 bps rate hike, the first in 2016 and only the second since the financial crisis, is now assured: all 103 Bloomberg-surveyed economists expect a 25bp increase, and the market agrees pricing in a 100% probability of a rate hike. So what does matter? Here is a selection of sellside opinions, summarizing they key things to watch for in today's FOMC statement.

Jeff Gundlach Warns 10Y Yields Above 3% Will "Punish Markets", Would Mark End Of Bond Bull

"We’re getting to the point where further rises in Treasuries, certainly above 3 percent, would start to have a real impact on market liquidity in corporate bonds and junk bonds. Also, a 10-year Treasury above 3 percent in my view starts to bring into question some of the aspects of the stock market and of the housing market in particular."

Frontrunning: December 13

  • Trump Picks Exxon Chief for State Amid Concerns (Reuters)
  • Buoyant Markets Pose New Challenge for the Fed (WSJ)
  • Tweeter-in-Chief Trump Faces Test After Yellen’s Rate Decision (BBG)
  • Trump Dissing Daily Intelligence Briefing Worsens Rift With CIA (BBG)
  • SWIFT confirms new cyber thefts, hacking tactics (Reuters)

Beware "Extreme Volatility" Ahead Of Quad-Witching Friday: BMO

Quadruple witching weeks tend to be extremely volatile as large derivative positions are rolled over. Since 1990 the average weekly spread between the high and low for the S&P 500 during December quadruple witching weeks is 2.98%. Using Friday’s closing data, this would result in a potential range of 2326 on the high side and 2189 on the low side for the S&P 500 this week.

Wall Street Reacts To The OPEC/NOPEC Deal: "Saudis Are Wrong To Think US Shale Won't Respond"

With oil prices surging to 17-month highs following this weekend's OPEC-NOPEC deal and Saudi promises to cut still more, many Wall Street analysts are skpetical with Goldman Sachs warning that the Saudis are wrong to think U.S. shale production won’t respond to higher prices. However, Nomura and Bernstein see little threat to OPEC from rising U.S. shale production in 2017.

Frontrunning: December 7

  • Futures rise for third day in a row (Reuters); Banks Lead Stock Rally as Bonds Gain With Hopes Pinned on Draghi (BBG)
  • Monte dei Paschi bolsters European stocks, ECB looms (Reuters)
  • Finding Risk in All the Wrong Places as Trump Era Begins (BBG)
  • Goldman Tells Stock Pickers to Rejoice as Correlations Decline (BBG)
  • Trump’s ‘Wall’ at Mexico Border Vanishing as GOP Lawmakers Bolt (BBG)

JPMorgan, HSBC, Credit Agricole "Bank Cartel" Fined $521 Million For Euribor Rigging

The European Commission has fined Crédit Agricole, HSBC and JPMorgan Chase, a total of €485m for participating in a cartel concerning the pricing of interest rate derivatives denominated in euros. “The aim of the cartel was to distort” Euribor, said EU competition policy chief Vestager. The traders involved "tried to submit quotes to move the Euribor rate up or down."