"There is hope of more stimulus in March and potential for even more stimulus in Japan and China, so if we get concrete positive economic news the rebound could last into next week,” said John Plassard, senior equity- sales trader at Mirabaud Securities. “I told my clients to fasten their seatbelts and wait for better news, and this is finally happening."... "The turnaround in sentiment came amid signs central banks may be prepared to act after $7.8 trillion was erased from the value of global equities this year on China’s slowdown and oil’s crash."
A week ago we warned of some insane movements and mysterious bid in OIL (the Barclays iPath oil tracking ETN) as it traded a stunning 36% rich to its underlying NAV. Well with oil resurgent today, as contracts roll, something just imploded in OIL...
The economic emergency decree and any measures that the government could take at this point may be too late. After two years of inaction and the recent decline in oil prices, a credit event in 2016 is becoming increasingly difficult to avoid, in our view. After two years of inaction, with depleting external assets and the recent decline in oil prices, a credit event in 2016 may be becoming hard to avoid, in our view.
- Global Stocks Face Fresh Losses (WSJ)
- European stocks lick wounds after mauling, oil steady (Reuters)
- Hang Seng Index Sinks Below Net Assets for First Time Since 1998 (BBG)
- U.S. Hedge Funds Boast Lower Losses as Markets Tumble Further (NYT)
- Deutsche Bank Drops as Investment Bank Revenue Concerns Mount (BBG)
- Islamic State Uses Syria’s Biggest Dam as Refuge and Potential Weapon (WSJ)
Things are looking increasingly shaky for central planners around the globe.
The Fed may have officially tapered QE at the end of 2014 but that doesn't mean it is done buying Treasuries: since the Fed never ended rolling over maturing paper, it means that it will remain indefinitely active in the open market. And while there were no sizable maturities from the Fed's various QEs to date (only $474 million in 2014 and $3.5 billion in 2015) that will change dramatically this year, when Brian Sack's team will have to purchase about $216 billion to replace matured TSYs. According to JPM calculations, this represents half the net new government debt that will be issued over the next 12 months.
Canada’s oil “dream” is dying thanks to the inexorable slide in crude prices and as the IEA made clear earlier today, the pain is set to persist for the foreseeable future as the world “drowns in oversupply.” Now, the Bank of Canada must make a choice: cut to support the economy and the country's dying oil patch, or hold to shore up the plunging loonie. Whatever the BOC decides on Wednesday, some say the country's depression means NIRP is right around the corner.
- Spot the common thread: China's growth hits quarter-century low, raising hopes of more stimulus (Reuters)
- And here: China stocks climb on hopes for new economic stimulus (Reuters)
- Welcome to the Crisis Economy, Where Tumult Reigns (WSJ)
- IEA Sees Risk of World Drowning in Oil (BBG)
- IEA Sees Iran's Return Intensifying Battle for Europe Oil Market (BBG)
- China 2015 power, steel output drop for first time in decades (Reuters)
Gold retains a key role of a major diversifier in well-structured retail investment and pension portfolios ... core defensive and hedging properties vis-à-vis global currencies and fixed income, as well as oil and a range of other commodities.
What's wrong with this picture?
It’s nearly that time again. On the heels of December’s “big disappointment” wherein Mario Draghi cut the depo rate by a “measly” 10 bps and extended PSPP by an underwhelming six months, the ECB meets again next week, and this time around, expectations are low. But even if Draghi doesn't budge in January, most expect more easing is one the way. The only question is this: how will the Frankfurt cabal cope with the shrinking pool of purchase eligible assets?
The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2015 is 0.6 percent on January 15, down from 0.8 percent on January 8. The forecast for fourth quarter real consumer spending growth fell from 2.0 percent to 1.7 percent after this morning's retail sales report from the U.S. Census Bureau and the industrial production release from the Federal Reserve.
One of the Main Causes of Our Economic Problems
For imprisonments, the US really does have no close second: it’s the unquestionable global market-leader, for prisons and prisoners. And this gets us to the market-leader for prisons within America itself, and to the stunning corruption that stands behind it. So, here’s that extraordinary example, and the story behind its corruption, which will provide a close-up view of America’s general corruption, from the top (including the government itself) on down.
Here is precisely where the brand new gold vault of the world's biggest bank will be located.