Barclays

Frontrunning: May 9

  • China stocks plunge again as hopes for economic recovery fade (Reuters)
  • European Stock Gains Defy China Data That Hurt Metals; Oil Rises (BBG)
  • Yen falls after Tokyo warning (Reuters)
  • Soros Chart Signals BOJ Bond Buying Already Enough to Weaken Yen (BBG)
  • Dollar Jump Catches Traders Short in One More Currency Calamity (BBG)
  • Even China's Party Mouthpiece Is Warning About Debt (BBG)

Frontrunning: May 5

  • Europe shares, oil snap four-day losing streaks (Reuters)
  • Oil rallies as Canada fire and Libya violence threaten supply (Reuters)
  • How Trump Won—and How the GOP Let Him (WSJ)
  • Hedge Fudge Managers Lose Their Swagger (BBG)
  • Turkey Premier Said to Give Up as Erdogan Tightens Grip (BBG)

Futures Rebound As Crude Regains $45 On Canada Fears; Turkey Hammered

While markets remain relatively subdued ahead of tomorrow's nonfarm payrolls report, after several days of losses in US stocks which pushed the S&P500 to three week lows, overnight markets ignored the latest weak data out of China where the Caixin Services PMI was the latest indicator to disappoint (dropping from 52.2 to 51.8), and instead focused on crude, which rebounded from yesterday's post inventory-build lows and briefly printed above $45/bbl over uncertainty related to the impact of Canada wildfires on production and how long will last. The bounce in WTI has meant Brent briefly traded at parity with West Texas for the first time in 6 weeks. 

As UK Housing Bubble Bursts, Barclays Unleashes 100% LTV Mortgages Again

Just a month after the UK's luxury housing bubble burst, it appears the nice friendly bankers at Barclays are looking for some scapegoats to flip their condos to. That the housing recovery has been driven primarily by a steady flow of foreign investment, and not necessarily the underlying economic fundamentals improving is becoming clear to everyone and so in what appears a desperate act of deja vu, Barclays has brought back the 100 per cent mortgage - the first major bank to do so since the last financial crisis - to keep the ponzi dream alive just a little longer.

Frontrunning: May 4

  • Donald Trump’s Win Just Latest Tremor Shaking GOP (WSJ)
  • Trump Becomes Presumptive Republican Nominee as Cruz Exits Race (BBG)
  • How 'Stop Trump' failed to halt the Republican front-runner (Reuters)
  • Islamic State seeks news blackout in Mosul as Iraqi army nears (Reuters)
  • U.S. gathers allies on next steps in Islamic State fight (Reuters)

Frontrunning: May 3

  • Global stocks slide as yen, euro gains question policy potency (Reuters)
  • U.S. Index Futures Signal Stock Losses as AIG Drops on Earnings (BBG)
  • EU Sees Weaker Growth in Eurozone and Wider EU as China Slowdown Weighs (WSJ)
  • Euro Set for Longest Run of Gains Since 2013 as Fed Focus Fades (BBG)
  • German Bonds Advance as EU Cuts Euro-Area Inflation Outlook (BBG)

Frontrunning: April 27

  • Trump, Clinton press closer to general election showdown (AP)
  • Acela primaries: Winners, losers (Hill)
  • Trump Says He's `Presumptive Nominee' as Clinton Wins Four (BBG)
  • In the battle for Hollywood endorsements - and cash - Clinton rules (Reuters)
  • U.S. Oil Rises Above $45 a Barrel for First Time Since November (BBG)
  • Spin: Near-Zero Growth Happens Often in Slow-Motion U.S. Economy (BBG)

Futures Ignore Apple Plunge; Oil Rises Above $45 As Yellen Looms

For those who thought that the world's biggest company losing over $40 billion in market cap in an instant on disappointing Apple earnings, would have been sufficient to put a dent in US equity futures, we have some disappointing news: with just over 7 hours until the FOMC reveals its April statement, futures are practically unchanged, even though the Nasdaq appears set for an early bruising in the aftermath of what is becoming a disturbing quarter for tech companies. Instead of tech leading, however, the upside has once again come from the energy complex where moments ago WTI rose above $45 a barrel for the first time since November after yesterday's unexpected 1.07 million barrel API inventory drawdown.

As Fed Meeting Begins Futures Are Flat In Sleepy Session; Apple Earnings On Deck

With the Fed decision just one day away, followed the very next day by the increasingly more irrational BOJ, stocks had no desire to make significant moves and overnight's boring session was the result, as European stocks and U.S. index futures rose modestly but mostly hugged the flatline while Asian declined 0.2% for a third day as raw-material shares declined and Tokyo equities slumped before central bank meetings in the U.S. and Japan this week. China’s stocks rose the most in almost two weeks, up 0.6% but failed to rise above 3000 on the Shanghai Composite, in thin trading.

Frontrunning: April 25

  • Obama sending more forces to Syria to consolidate gains against Islamic State (Reuters)
  • Global stocks, dollar stumble ahead of Fed, BOJ meetings (Reuters)
  • The Rise and Deadly Fall of Islamic State’s Oil Tycoon (WSJ)
  • Oil Producers Lock In Once-Snubbed Prices (WSJ)
  • Yellen's Scope for Summer Rate Hike Widens as ECB Signals a Hold (BBG)
  • 11,000 jobs at risk as BHS teeters on brink (The Times)

Frontrunning: April 21

  • World stocks gain along with oil, clock ticks down to ECB (Reuters)
  • Draghi Expected to Defend ECB in Face of German Criticism (WSJ)
  • Trump, Cruz, Kasich seek to win over Republican leaders at party meeting (Reuters)
  • Donald Trump Plans to Adopt More-Traditional Campaign Tactics (WSJ)
  • Japan, Not Germany, Leads World in Negative-Yield Bonds (BBG)

Is Deutsche Bank’s Gold Manipulation The Main Scam Or Just A Side-Show?

Is Deutsche's gaming of the London precious metals fix the same thing as - or even tangentially related to - the main manipulation of the gold price, which is the practice of central banks “lending” their gold to big commercial banks, which then sell that gold on the open market to depress the price?

Analysts Respond To Doha Meeting Failure: "Blow To Sentiment"

Failure to proceed with crude output freeze plan seen as a "serious blow" to oil-market sentiment by Energy Aspects; Barclays expects mounting tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran to boost volatility. Separately, Kuwait oil workers strike viewed as price-supportive.  Here, courtesy of Bloomberg, is a summary of what analysts have said so far on meeting’s outcome as well as comments on Kuwait:

 

No Deal: Doha Talks End Without Agreement

OPEC, NON-OPEC MINISTERS FINISH OIL TALKS IN DOHA, NO AGREEMENT - RTRS
OIL PRODUCERS END DOHA TALKS: OMAN MINISTER - BBG
DOHA OIL TALKS FINISH WITHOUT FREEZE DEAL: NIGERIAN MINISTER - BBG
OIL-PRODUCING NATIONS WILL MEET AGAIN, PROBABLY JUNE: NIGERIA - BBG