Barclays

Frontrunning: March 11

  • Shares bounce, euro fades after savage ECB reaction (Reuters)
  • Trump's Islam comments draw attacks as Republicans discover civility (Reuters)
  • Oil Prices Rise on Hopes Glut Will Ease (WSJ)
  • IEA Says Oil Price May Have Bottomed as High-Cost Producers Cut (BBG)
  • Why Euro-Area Inflation Will Be Low for Years, According to Draghi (BBG)
  • Calmer markets, positive data prime Fed to push ahead with rate rises (Reuters)

Frontrunning: March 8

  • Global Stocks Drop on Renewed Concerns About China (WSJ)
  • Iron Ore's Rally Stalls as Goldman to Citigroup Forecast Retreat (BBG)
  • EU and Turkey close to groundbreaking migrant deal (FT)
  • Carney's `Brexit' Stance Under Fire as BOE Accused of Bias (BBG)
  • Oil edges lower after Kuwait dents hopes for output freeze (Reuters)

Bears Exit Hibernation As Rally Fizzles On Dismal Chinese Trade Data; Commodities Slide; Gold Higher

Those algos who scrambled to paint yesterday's closing tape with that last second VIX slam sending the S&P back over 2,000, forgot one thing - the same thing that China also ignored - central bankers can not print trade, something we have repeated since 2011. The world got a harsh reminder of this last night when China reported the third largest drop in exports in history, which crashed by over 25%, the third biggest drop on record, and no, it was not just the base effect from last February's spike, as otherwise the combined January-February data would offset each other, instead it was a joint disaster, meaning one can't blame the Lunar New Year either.  In short, one can't really blame anything aside from the real culprit: despite all the lipstick that has been put on it, global trade is grinding to a halt.

Will Russia End Up Controlling 73% of Global Oil Supply?

Russia has played a master stroke in the current oil crisis by taking the lead in forming a new cartel, but it’s a move that could spell geopolitical disaster. If this scenario plays out, Russia will emerge as the de facto leader of the major oil producing nations of the world, accounting for almost 73 percent of the global oil supply.

Frontrunning: March 4

  • Rivals rip Trump but promise support if he is the nominee (Reuters)
  • Employment gains seen accelerating in February (Reuters)
  • Brazil's Lula Targeted in Police Raid Into Corruption Scandal (BBG)
  • Economist: For The ECB, It's No Longer About Oil (BBG)
  • China's premier says economy faces greater difficulties in 2016 (Reuters)
  • Copper Stockpiles in China Surge to Record as Metal Flows East (BBG)

Frontrunning: March 2

  • Trump, Clinton capture key wins on Super Tuesday (Reuters)
  • Hillary Clinton Triumphs in Delegate-Rich Super Tuesday States (WSJ)
  • S&P 500 Futures Follow Oil Lower, Erase Gain After Super Tuesday (BBG)
  • Oil below $37 as U.S. inventory rise counters output freeze plan (Reuters)
  • Wall Street's big short: President Donald J. Trump (Reuters)
  • Ex-Chesapeake CEO McClendon Indicted Over Lease Bid Rigging (BBG)
GoldCore's picture

Comparatively, the S&P 500 index is down 4.7% this year, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 4.5% and the NASDAQ is down 7.8%. International indices have also seen losses with the FTSE down 2.6%, the DAX down 10.7% and the Nikkei down 13.7% (see table below).

Frontrunning: March 1

  • Trump, Clinton poised for big wins on Super Tuesday (Reuters)
  • U.S. Index Futures Signal Equities to Rebound After Monthly Drop (BBG)
  • Barclays Plummets as Bank Slashes Dividend in Plan to Shrink (BBG)
  • Glencore Tumbles to Loss, Promises Accelerated Debt Reduction (WSJ)
  • The Angry Americans: Trump, Sanders and the Aftershocks of 2008 (BBG)

Stocks Squeeze Higher On "Super Tuesday" As Poor Macro Is Offset By Jack Lew's Soothing Words

With markets happy to put February in the history books because it marked the fourth consecutive monthly decline in global stocks, we move on to March 1st, which doubles down as 'Super Tuesday' in the US when Trump's presidential candidacy will almost certainly be sealed and a day in which stocks decided to join the super fun by super surging overnight on nothing but bad global macro and economic which however was promptly ignored and instead the focus was on ongoing central bank intervention and even more jawboning.

Frontrunning: February 29

  • Shares fall on G20 disappointment, Fed hike worries (Reuters)
  • China cuts reserve requirement ratio for fifth time since Feb. 2015 (Reuters)
  • China Stocks Tumble Toward 15-Month Low as Stimulus Bets Unwind (BBG)
  • S&P 500 Futures Signal 2nd Day of Stock Losses; Valeant Slides (BBG)
  • Valeant fundamental risks are too severe to suggest the stock is poised for a lasting rebound (WSJ)

China's Panicked RRR Cut Leads To Feeble Stock Rebound; Gold Resumes Climb

After the G-20 ended in a wave of global disappointment, leading to the biggest Yuan devaluation in 8 weeks, and sending Chinese stocks into a tailspin on concerns the PBOC has forsaken its stock market as well as speculation the housing bubble is now sucking up excess liquidity which in turn pushed global market deep in the red to start the week, it was the PBOC's turn to scramble in a panicked reaction to sliding risk exactly one month after Japan unveiled its own desperation NIRP, and as reported before unexpectedly cut its Reserve Requirement Ratio by 0.5% to 17.0%, the first such cut in 2016 and the 5th since the start of 2015.

Kuroda's NIRP Backlash - Japanese Interbank Lending Crashes

Not only has the Yen strengthened and stocks collapsed since BoJ's Kuroda descended into NIRP lunacy but, in a dramatic shift that threatens the entire transmission mechanism of negative-rate stimulus, Japanese banks (whether fearing counterparty risk or already over-burdened) have almost entirely stopped lending to one another. Confusion reigns everywhere in Japanese markets with short-term interest-rate swap spreads surging and bond market volatility spiking to 3 year highs (dragging gold with it).

Donald Trump Is Right: Here Are 100 Reasons Why We Need To Audit The Federal Reserve

When a leading nominee for President gets something exactly right, we should applaud them for it.  In this case, Donald Trump’s call to audit the Federal Reserve is dead on correct.  Most Americans don’t realize this, but the Federal Reserve has far more power over the economy than anyone else does – including Barack Obama.  The funny thing is that the Federal Reserve is not even part of the federal government.  It is an independent private central bank that was designed by very powerful Wall Street interests a little over 100 years ago.  It is at the heart of the debt-based financial system which is eating away at America like cancer, and it has no direct accountability to the American people whatsoever.