"We have spent recent weeks modeling the fixing mechanism for $/CNY. In the process, we uncovered meaningful asymmetry, meaning that the RMB does not reverse declines made on Dollar strength when the Dollar weakens."
While the October payrolls report, due out at 8:30am on Friday, has taken on a secondary importance in light of the market's near certainty that the Fed will hike rates in December (absent a Trump victory and/or a market crash), analysts and traders will surely be concerned any prominent outlier prints that deviate too far from the consensus estimate of 175K. So, in preview of tomorrow's biggest economic update, here is a snapshot of what Wall Street expects.
Global stocks, S&P futures, the Mexican peso, the Korean Won and crude oil all fell as traders were spooked by polls suggesting a tightening race and Trump momentum ahead of next week’s American presidential election. The yen and Swiss franc gained, as did global bond markets and gold as investors flocked to safe haven assets.
What are the implications from the shift toward passive investing? According to JPM there are two big ones: i) Markets become more brittle and systematically risky; ii) Crashes, when they happen, will be bigger and worse iii) Markets become less efficient
S&P futures and Asian stocks were little changed while European shares fell as the global bonds sell-off deepened on speculation major central banks are moving closer to reining in stimulus, while stocks retreated after disappointing results from companies including Amazon.com and AB InBev.
“We are in a very significant monetization cycle, particularly in more of the distressed investments that we made,” said Nat Zilkha, who oversees the 40-year-old firm’s credit investments, adding that “we got involved in some situations in energy and coal and other commodities earlier in the year, and those have played out quite well -- frankly faster than we thought.”
Last night, David Rosenberg pointed out something troubling: we have just witnessed five multi-billion dollar deals this past week alone — $207 billion globally (AT&T/Time Warner; TD Ameritrade/Scottrade) in what has been the most active announcement list since 1999. We can now add another massive deal to the list: this morning Qualcomm announced it would buy NXP Semiconductors NV for about $47 billion, including debt, as it seeks to expand the reach of its chips from phones to cars.
Doug Band provides vivid details on Bill's personal financial arrangements including raising "more than $50 million in for-profit activity for President Clinton to date" and "$66 million in future contracts, should he choose to continue with those engagements."
European, Asian stocks fell while S&P futures rebounded as investors assessed a mixed batch of earnings reports while the dollar strengthened to 9 month highs versus most of peers on rising confidence that the Fed will raise rates this year, pushing global bond yields higher.
The long await IPO of Snapchat is finally coming: according to Bloomberg the social media will seek to raise as much as $4 billion in its planned initial public offering, making it the biggest social media company to go public since Twitter's initial public offering in November 2013.
Having had a chance to digest AAPL's results, Wall Street's sellside analysts chimed in this morning, and the prevailing sentiment was neutral to negative, with Stifel's Aaron Raker most disappointed, downgrading the stock from Buy to Hold, and lowering his price target to $115.