Barclays

• UK economy shows 0.3% growth (FT)
• Texas University Fund Sold $375 Million in Gold Bars (BBG)
• Spain Jobless Rate Breaches 27% on Recession Woes (BBG)
• Letta calls for easing of austerity policies (FT)
• Italy Led by Letta Brings Berlusconi Back as Winner (BBG)
• Fed Debate Moves From Tapering to Extending Bond Buying (BBG)
• South Korea wants talks with North on shuttered industrial zone (Reuters)
• Republicans advance bill to prepare for debt ceiling fight (Reuters)
• Republicans claim White House failed to warn on severity of cuts (FT)
• Xi meets former US heavyweights (China Daily)
• Next BoE chief Carney says clear framework key to policy success (Reuters)
• Chinese roll out red carpet for Hollande (FT)

• China’s Recovery Falters as Manufacturing Growth Cools (BBG)
• Gloomy eurozone output points to rate cut (FT)
• Limit Austerity, EU appartchik Barroso Says (WSJ)
• Regulators Get Banks to Rein In Bonus Pay (WSJ)
• SEC looks to ease rules for launching ETFs (Reuters)
• Easy come, easy go: U.S. Seizes $21 Million From Electric Car Maker Fisker (WSJ)
• Japan nationalists near disputed isles (Reuters)
• OECD in fresh warning on Japan debt (FT)
• S&P says more than one-third chance of Japan downgrade, cites risks to Abenomics (Reuters)

As we noted last week, all around the world the demand for physical precious metals has soared in the days following paper gold's price collapse. As the FT reports, from Shanghai and Hong Kong to India, one dealer noted, "Older members who have been in the business for 50 years haven’t seen such a thing." The feverish buying has left many of Hong Kong's banks, jewelers, and even its gold exchange without enough gold to meet demand. Record volumes on Shanghai's exchange, lines outside Beijing jewelry stores, and the proximity of Hindu festivals drove "Indian physical demand and premiums," higher as the worlds two largest gold buying nations prompted one exchange CEO to note that we hadn't, "seen this kind of gold rush in over 20 years." It would seem the concerted effort to collapse paper prices in London and New York has provided the rest of the world a multi-decade buying opportunity.

• Turn to Religion Split Bomb Suspects' Home (WSJ)
• The propaganda is back for the 4th year in a row: Spring Swoon Sequel No Reason for Economic Growth Scare in U.S. (BBG)
• Bernanke Jackson Hole Absence Contrasts With Greenspan Adulation (BBG)
• Large economies promise to boost growth (FT)
• Tata Faces Crisis as $20 Billion Spent on Water (BBG)
• U.S. Eyes Pushback On China Hacking (WSJ)
• Fed's Bernanke sees no U.S. inflation risks: Nowotny (Reuters)
• Austerity on Trial With U.S. Versus Europe Amid New Evidence (BBG)
• Eurozone anti-austerity camp on the rise (FT)
• Spain Aims to Soften Budget Cuts (WSJ)
• Japan's Aso Calls Recovery 'Few Years' Away (WSJ)
• BOJ Said to Consider Price Forecast Upgrade (WSJ)

• Police Searching for 19-Year-Old Boston Bombing Suspect (BBG)
• Mayhem Erupts in Boston After MIT Campus Officer Slain (BBG)
• Elvis Impersonator Accused of Ricin Letters Sowing Fear (BBG)
• Blackstone Pulls Out of Dell Bid on Rapidly Falling PC Sales (BBG)
• Before Texas plant exploded: What did regulators know? (Reuters)
• Aso Says Japan Policy Unopposed at G-20 Meeting as Yen Falls (BBG)
• Bipartisan pair target $2.5tn US savings (FT)
• Plan for new Cyprus vote casts uncertainty on bailout (Cyprus Mail)
• Ireland picks through debtors’ lifestyles (FT)

The structural collapse in paper gold prices has been met a seeming 'money-on-the-sidelines' flourish of investors looking to buy the physical asset. However, when asset relationships break-down so significantly, as gold and stocks have in the past 90 days, one has to take a step back and think "what changed?" As the chart below shows, the last time the correlation between stocks and gold was this negative, things did not end so well for the high-valuation equity momentum chasers...

New all-time highs in the DJIA are a rare occurrence generally greeted with strong market emotions. The last few weeks have seen asset-gatherers clambering over each other to appear on TV proclaiming 'victory' and suggesting now is the time to buy stocks or miss out!! However, when one looks at the actual data (as opposed to anecdotes), while the returns one year out are fairly similar (6.72% after setting a new high vs. 7.07% on average over the last 113 years) Barclays finds that it is in the one-quarter time frame that the difference is most stark (-0.40% after setting a new high vs. 1.63% overall). This suggests a bias to profit-taking (and choppy trading) at all-time record highs, as opposed to a moon-shot.

• Boston bomb probe looking at pressure cooker, backpacks (Reuters), Boston Bomb Clues Surface (WSJ) Forensic Investigators Discover Clues to Boston Bombing (BBG)
• China local authority debt ‘out of control’ (FT)
• Gold Wipes $560 Billion From Central Banks as Equities Rally (BBG)... or the same impact a 2% rise in rates would have on the Fed's balance sheet
• More Wall Street leakage: Stock Surge Linked to Lobbyist (WSJ)
• China's bird flu death toll rises to 16, government warns of spread (Reuters)
• Chinese official endorses monetary easing (FT)
• As global price slumps, "Abenomics" risks drive Japan gold bugs (Reuters)
• North Korea rejects US call for talks (FT)
• IMF Renews Push Against Austerity (WSJ)
• India Gains as Gold Plunge Boosts Scope for Rate Cuts (BBG)
• Germany set to approve Cyprus aid (FT)
• Easing Is an Issue as G-20 Meets (WSJ)

While China's trifecta miss of GDP, Retail Sales and Industrial Production all coming lower than expected was likely a factor in the overnight rout of gold, the initial burst of selling started well before the Chinese data hit the tape, or as soon as Japan opened for trading with forced financial institution selling to prefund cash for any and all future JGB VaR-driven margin calls. It was all downhill from there, literally, with overnight selling of gold punctured by brief burst of targeted stop hunting, sending the metal down $116 per ounce, as spot touches $1385 after trading nearly at $1500 yesterday and down $200 in 4 days. End result, whether due to a re-collapsing global economy, margin calls, fears forced Cyprus gold selling will be imposed on all other insolvent European countries, coordinated central bank slams, hedge fund positioning, long unwinds, liquidations, fears about future demand, or whatever the usual selling suspects are, is that gold tumbles an unprecedented 7.8% on 230,000 contracts in one day, and well over 10% in two days, pushing the yellow metal 14 day RSI band to 18, meaning it is now most oversold since 1999. In brief, it is an all out panic, with Goldman still telling clients to sell, i.e., buying every shiny ounce all the way down (not to mention India, where accordingto UBS Friday demand was double the average).

We will release the full list of named recipients once we get it, but here is what we now for now, via BBG and CNN:

• EMPLOYEES AT GOLDMAN SACHS, BARCLAYS, JP MORGAN, CITI, NOMURA, UBS, HSBC RECEIVED FED MINUTES EARLY YESTERDAY
• MOST OF THE BANK EMPLOYEES APPEAR TO WORK IN GOVERNMENTAL RELATIONS (Lobbies)
• ABA, SIFMA, SENATE STAFFERS RECEIVED FED MINUTES EARLY
• FED NAMES 154 RECIPIENTS OF EARLY RELEASE OF FOMC MINUTES
• FED MINUTES SENT EARLY TO BANKS, LAW FIRMS, PRIVATE EQUITY
• FED EARLIER SAID RELEASE WENT MAINLY TO CONGRESS, TRADE GROUPS
• NONE OF THE PEOPLE ON THE LIST ALERTED THE FED THAT THEY RECEIVED NONPUBLIC INFO A DAY EARLY

In other words: absolutely everyone who trades risk assets for a living.

• Germany: Europe's... poorest? ECB Survey Puts Southerners on Top in Household Wealth, Germans Near Bottom (WSJ)
• Obama Proposes $3.77 Trillion Budget to Revive Debt Talks (BBG)
• China trade data raise accuracy worries (FT) ... but generates so much laughter
• such as this... China Exports Miss Forecasts as ‘Absurd’ Data Probed (BBG)
• S. Korea Braces for ‘Very High’ Chance of North Missile Test (BBG)
• Slovenia, Spain Warned of ‘Excessive’ Economic Imbalances by EU (BBG)
• G8 foreign ministers meet in London to address Syria, North Korea (Reuters)
• N. Korea Threats Boost First South Korea Rate Cut Odds Since October (BBG)
• China Bird Flu Outbreak May Stem From Numerous Sources (BBG)
• Spain Bailout Less Likely on Lower Funding Costs: Moody’s (BBG)
• BOE’s Haldane: Simplify Bank Rules to Strengthen Them (WSJ)

• Finally the MSM catches up to reality: Workers Stuck in Disability Stunt Economic Recovery (WSJ)
• China opens Aussie dollar direct trading (FT)
• National Bank and Eurobank Fall as Merger Halted (BBG)
• Why Making Europe German Won’t Fix the Crisis - The Bulgarian case study (BBG)
• Nikkei hits new highs as yen slides (FT)
• Housing Prices Are on a Tear, Thanks to the Fed (WSJ)
• Why is Moody's exempt from justice, or the "Big Question in U.S. vs. S&P" (WSJ)
• Central banks move into riskier assets (FT)
• N. Korea May Conduct Joint Missile-Nuclear Tests, South Says (BBG)
• North Korea Pulls Workers From Factories It Runs With South (NYT)
• Illinois pension fix faces political, legal hurdles (Reuters)
• IPO Bankers Become Frogs in Hot Water Amid China Market Halt (BBG)
• Portugal Seeks New Cuts to Stay on Course (WSJ)

• George Soros: 'What Japan is doing is actually quite dangerous because" (BBG)
• North Korea lacks means for nuclear strike on U.S., experts say (Reuters)
• Yellen latest to hint about slowing of QE3 (FT)
• Hollande approval rating hits new low (FT)
• Hollande Dismisses Reshuffle as Crisis Hits Popularity (BBG)
• Japan Upper house approves full 5 year term for BOJ gov. Kuroda (BBG)
• US: Plan to Cap Tax Breaks Is Gaining Steam (WSJ)
• BOE Says Investors May Be Taking ‘Too Rosy’ a View of Stress (BBG)
• Kiwis Say ‘Ni Hao’ as China Ties Trump Australia Sales (BBG)
• Obama Avoids Trading Threats With North Korea’s Kim (BBG)

• Helicopter QE will never be reversed (Evans-Pritchard)
• Bank of Japan Launches Easing Campaign under new leadership (WSJ)
• Draghi Considers Plan B as Sentiment Dims After Cyprus Fumble (BBG)
• Spain threatened by resurgent credit crunch (FT)
• U.S. Dials Back on Korean Show of Force (WSJ)
• Gillard Urges Aussie Firms to Emulate German Deutschmark Success (BBG)
• Bank watchdog warns on retail branches (FT)
• Xi's Russia visit confirms continuity of ties (China Daily)
• Portuguese Government Survives No-Confidence Vote (WSJ)
• Mortgage rates set for fall, Bank of England survey shows (Telegraph)
• Russia’s bank chief warns on economy (FT)
• Fed member hints at summer slowing of QE3 (FT)

Thanks to the Fed's ZIRP, the investing world is on a constant reach for yield; and due to the fact that the last bubble of investor largesse (ignoring leverage and reality) was not 'punished' but in fact 'bailed-out', participants in the financial markets learned nothing. Just as the last crisis was formed on the back of an insatiable mortgage-backed security market desperate for new loans (any loans) of increasingly dubious quality to securitize, so this time it is subprime auto loans that have taken over. As a Reuters review of court records shows, subprime auto lenders are showing up in a lot of personal bankruptcy filings. At car dealers across the United States, loans to subprime borrowers are surging - up 18% in 2012 YoY, to 6.6 million borrowers. Subprime auto lending is just one of several mini-bubbles the bond-buying program has created across a range of assets; "it's the same sort of thing we saw in 2007, people get driven to do riskier and riskier things." Of course, with auto production having been the backbone of so many macro data points that are used to 'show' the real economy recovering (despite the channel-stuffing), now that the growth in auto-sales are stalling, it is for the subprime originators "under extreme pressure to hit goals" in their boiler-room-like dealings to extend loans (at ever higher rates) and securitize while the Fed 'music' is still playing. It seems we truly never learn.