Barclays

If you don’t collapse the system, the system will collapse you.

• Cypriot Bank Levy Is ‘Ominous’ for Bondholders, Barclays Says (BBG)
• Euro, Stocks Drops; Gold, German Bonds Rally on Cyprus (BBG)
• Total chaos:Cyprus tries to rework divisive bank tax (Reuters)
• More total chaos: Cyprus Prepares New Deposit-Tax Proposal (WSJ)
• Euro Slides Most in 14 Months on Cyprus Turmoil; Yen Strengthens (BBG)
• Osborne to admit fresh blow to debt target (FT)
• Even the Finns are giving up: Finnish Government May Relinquish Deficit Target to Boost Growth (BBG)
• Moody’s Sees Defaults as PBOC Warns on Local Risks (BBG)
• Australia Faces ‘Massive Hit’ to Government Revenue, Swan Says (BBG)
• Inside a Warier Fed, Watch the New Guy (Hilsenrath)
• Obama to Tap Perez for Labor Secretary (WSJ) - and with that the "minorities" quota is full
• Finally, this should be good: BuzzFeed to Launch Business Section (WSJ)

The usually optimistic bunch of salubrious sell-side strategists are mixed in their perspective of the latest debacle to roll ashore from Europe. Most, if not quite all, expect short-term 'nervousness' and a few hardy Pollyannas remain though looking at the other end of the rainbow - once again because, drum roll please, "central banks will respond." Adding to our summary yesterday, Bloomberg adds another 13 sell-side opinions (and Moody's), it the diversity of response is perhaps best glimpsed with one who "does not expect savers to be fearful of a confiscation of their savings and spark a run on banks" for some whimsical reason and another states unequivocally, "No sensible foreign depositor would continue to keep money in a banking system that just took nearly 10% of his deposit without any notice."

Curious why Treasury yields have ground lower this morning, considerably more than would perhaps be expected given the consumer sentiment data, and in the process have prevented the intraday "rotation" out of bonds into stocks, pushing the DJIA higher for the 11th consecutive day? The answer comes from the Fed which tipped its hand earlier and scared a few big bond shorts by issuing a Large Positions Reports from those entities which own more than $2 billion of the 2% of February 2023 (CUSIP: 912828UN8 auctioned off in February and reopened on Wednesday). In an unexpected request, and on the back of a surge in fails to deliver earlier in the week and the huge apparent buyside demand in the latest 10Y auction (Primary Dealers getting only 22.3% of the takedown in the UN8 vs typical 40-60%) which settles today, MNI reports that the Fed is now inquiring who has large chunks of the bond: something it has not done since February 2012.

Retail investors are piling into the stock market again in the false belief that the worst of the economic crisis is over. Alas, those who are not properly diversified may again be in for a rude awakening.

While the supposed common-knowledge is that rising short-interest is where to look for epic squeezes (and indeed it appears to the case in individual stocks); in ETF-land, it tends to be the opposite (especially when the underlying of the ETF is relatively illiquid). Absolute short interest in the high-yield bond ETF HYG is at a record - surging to over 23mm shares - heralded by many as evidence that HY can squeeze higher. However, given the incredible rise in shares outstanding in HYG (as flows drove creation until around six months ago) the more reliable indication is the short-interest-ratio. The SI ratio is back at the same levels it was at the highs of the Oct 2007 period - we humbly suggest that this (as was clear in 2007) is anything but contrarian as professional bond managers using ETF liquidity to hedge their over-stuffed and over-flowing illiquid HY bond portfolios. With HY 'yields' at record lows, HY spreads near record lows (and crossover having only been tighter during 1946-65 repression), leverage rising notably, and valuations extreme (only 22% of CCC credits priced with yields over 10%!!!) is it any wonder that the professionals are as confidently hedged as they were as the credit crisis exploded and Lehman struck.

The “Fix” Is In?

• Dimon’s ‘Harpooned’ Whale Resurfaces With Senate Findings (BBG)
• Greece and lenders fall out over firings (FT) - as predicted 48 hours ago
• Dallas Fed Cap Seen Shrinking U.S. Banking Units by Half (BBG) - which is why it will never happen
• Xi elected Chinese president (Xinhua)
• Russia Bond Auction Bombs as ING Awaits Central Bank Clarity (BBG)
• U.S. and U.K. in Tussle Over Libor-manipulating Trader (WSJ)
• Chinese firm puts millions into U.S. natural gas stations (Reuters)
• In Rare Move, Apple Goes on the Defensive Against Samsung (WSJ)
• Berlin Airport Fiasco Shows Chinks in German Engineering Armor (BBG)
• Ex-PIMCO executive sues firm, says was fired for reporting misdeeds (Reuters)
• Bank of Italy Tells Banks in the Red Not to Pay Bonuses, Dividends (Reuters)

Years after the CFTC, under the leadership of Goldman's Gary Gensler, theatrically agreed to investigate whether the price of precious metals was manipulated during trading - whether systematically or ad hoc - only to let that inquiry fizzle and drop the whole idea proclaiming there is manipulation, the commodity futures regulators are once again taking a look at shady activities originating at London. Or rather, it is "discussing internally" whether the daily London gold and silver price fixing is open to manipulation.

Some have attributed the resurrection of the financial markets (or more appropriately the banks) from the March 2009 lows to the IASB/FASB changes to factual to fantasy accounting. The Telegraph reports today that from PIRC's and the Bank of England's Financial Policy Committee that while banker bonuses continue to rise (for now), 'hidden' losses among UK banks could total GBP60 Billion (USD 90 Billion). HSBC topped the list with GBP10.4 Billion in bad debts that have yet to be written off and while the 'accounting' bodies are suggesting they will address criticism of this farce, as one analyst notes, they "can still make unprofitable lending appear profitable." Regulators expect to hear plans from lenders on how they intend to fill these holes before the end of the month to coincide either with the FPC’s meeting on March 19 or a statement scheduled for March 27. While outright recaps are unlikely, banks are expected to restructure and set out plans to raise their capital levels over the next couple of years. More fantasy...

• Cardinals head to conclave to elect pope for troubled Church (Reuters)
• Hyperinflation 'Unthinkable' Even With Bold Easing: Abe (Nikkei)
• Ryan Plan Revives '12 Election Issues (WSJ)
• Italy 1-yr debt costs highest since Dec after downgrade (Reuters)
• Republicans to unveil $4.6tn of cuts (FT) - Obama set to dismiss Ryan plan to balance budget within decade
• CIA Ramps Up Role in Iraq (WSJ)
• Hollande Hostility Fuels Charm Offensive to Show He’s No Sarkozy (BBG)
• SEC testing customized punishments (Reuters)
• Judge Cans Soda Ban  (WSJ)
• Hungary Lawmakers Rebuff EU, U.S. (WSJ)
• Even Berlusconi Can’t Slow Bulls Boosting Euro View (BBG) - luckily the consensus is never wrong
• Funding for Lending ‘put on steroids’ (FT)
• Investigators Narrow Focus in Dreamliner Probe (WSJ)
• With new group, Obama team seeks answer to Karl Rove (Reuters)

China has become a key locomotive for global growth, in many ways taking over the role traditionally played by the United States in business cycles. It is now the world’s second largest economy, and has grown much faster than any other major economy over the past couple of decades. China’s role as a key driver of global growth brings with it increased scrutiny by investors and economists: a significant slowdown in China – never mind a collapse - would have significant implications for economies and financial markets around the world. This was most recently seen in 2012, when slower economic growth – fostered in large part by policy tightening to alleviate inflation pressures and structural imbalances – generated fears of a “hard landing” that served as a headwind to financial market performance for much of last year. Barclays' Beyond the Miracle series carefully analyzes the transition that China is undergoing from various perspectives, and also discusses the economic and financial market implications. It argues that China will successfully make the transition from ‘economic miracle’ to normal development in the next decade. But there is an important caveat: China must embark on a multi-pronged set of reforms if the country is to move to a slower, more sustainable growth rate that deemphasizes trade, construction and investment and instead places a greater weight on consumer spending as a source of growth. Everything you wanted (and need) to know about China but were afraid to ask...

• Firms Send Record Cash Back to Investors (WSJ)
• And in totally opposite news, from the same source: Firms Race to Raise Cash (WSJ)
• China warns over fresh currency tensions (FT)
• Hollande faces pressure over jobs pledge (FT)
• Obama efforts renew ‘grand bargain’ hopes (FT)
• Shirakawa BOJ Expansion Gets No Respect as Stocks Cheer Exit (BBG)
• Japan’s Nakao Defends Easing as China’s Chen Expresses Concern (BBG)
• Boeing Had Considered Battery Fire Nearly Impossible, Report Says (WSJ)
• ECB Chief Plays Down Italy Fears (WSJ)
• China moves to make its markets credible (FT)
• Euro Group head says UK at risk of 'sterling crisis' (Telegraph)

And the Stock Rally Is Due to Money-Printing

Imagine the following: you read in a newspaper that a group of investors has sold US dollars to the tune of $820 million over the past two months for other currencies. This incidentally represents approximately 0.082% of the broad dollar money supply TMS-2 (which amounts to roughly $9.3 trillion at present). It means they would have been selling roughly $20 million per trading day. You then learn that $4 trillion of US dollars are traded in global currency markets every single trading day. Would you believe that their selling has influenced the exchange value of the dollar beyond a rounding error? And yet, we are supposed to believe that the selling of an equivalent amount of gold from the gold holdings of exchange traded funds over the past two months (they have sold 140 tons, or 0.082% of the total global gold supply) has greatly influenced the gold price.