Baseline Scenario

As so often happens, whenever there is a political spat in Europe, the rating agencies are quickly involved (thing S&P and Moody's downgrades and upgrades of Greece depending on how well the vassal nation is "behaving"), and moments ago S&P downgraded Poland from A- to BBB+ outlook negative, precisely due to Poland's new media law which has been the topic of so much consternation over the past week. In other words, S&P is now nothing more than a lackey for Brussels, threatening to send Polish yields higher if Poland does not fall in line.

When Mario Draghi “disappointed” markets in December by “only” cutting the depo rate by 10 bps and “merely” extending PSPP by six months while electing not to expand monthly asset purchases, the Riksbank, the Nationalbank, the Norges Bank, and the SNB all breathed heavy sighs of relief. And while we doubt the ECB is done when it comes to going "full-Krugman" (as it were), Mario Draghi’s “hawkish” ease did buy his counterparts some breathing room. Case in point: Denmark just hiked.

The Central Bank of Portugal conveniently released their results between Christmas and New Year, when the trading desks in Europe are virtually empty...

In a recent survey not a single major central bank could provide an example of an accurate “a priori” recession forecast. The silence from the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, BOE, BOJ and the Bank of Canada is deafening.

November has been a banner month for black swans. From Leftist political coups in Portugal to terror attacks in Paris to downed Russian fighter jets in Syria, the market is gradually learning to expect the unexpected. In its latest Quarterly Economic Outlook, SocGen outlines five political and economic black swans that could land in 2016.

“Brazil is confronting a toxic combination of a primary budget deficit, high public debt (relative to EM countries), very high real interest rates (the Selic stands at 14.25%), sluggish trend growth, a negative commodity price shock and potential contingent liabilities for the sovereign, which together spell trouble for public debt dynamics.”

Now that there are "no taboos," and assuming the ECB doesn't take our advice on the '52 Mantles or the lumber, the only question is whether the central bank will pair a depo rate cut with the PSPP expansion (in whatever form it takes)....

Today we got yet another tortured admission of just how ugly Greek balance sheets are, the ECB has admitted what we knew months ago, namely that more than  half of all Greek loans are now nonperforming, and that as much as 57% of the loans made by Piraeus Bank the bank which fared worst, are at risk with the other Greek banks not much better off.

"We expect the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia's general government fiscal deficit will increase to 16% of GDP in 2015, from 1.5% in 2014, primarily reflecting the sharp drop in oil prices. Hydrocarbons account for about 80% of Saudi Arabia's fiscal revenues."

Tomorrow morning Mario Draghi is widely expected to if not announce an extension, or expansion, of the ECB's QE program, than to at least jawbone sufficiently, and push the EURUSD lower from its recently anchored level in the 1.10-1.20 range. But what are the specifics of Draghi's announcement: will he merely expand the monetization limit per security, as he did in early September, will he increase the universe of eligibile securities, or will he simply extend the maturity of the non-open ended QE from September 2016 to some indefinite date? The following list, courtesy of Bloomberg, summarizes what the sellside universe believes Draghi will unveil in just under 12 hours.

Greece went to the polls on Sunday with a choice that really wasn't a choice and even as Alexis Tsipras looks set to prevail the most shocking electoral outcome is this: neo-Nazi Golden Dawn is set to come in third and garnered the most support of any party among Greece's unemployed.

Don't look now but Greece (remember them?) is headed back to the polls on Sunday in an election that pits a watered down version of Alex Tsipras and Syriza against the conservative New Democracy. With Syriza's original vision relegated to the realm of "wishful thinking", Greeks face a choice that really is no choice at all.

The data, according to many analysts, have been broadly supportive, with stronger growth and a tightening in the labor market that should allow the Fed to be "reasonably confident" that inflation will gradually return to target. That said, heightened global risks could lead to a tactical delay. Economisseds remain evenly split on the prospect of the first rate increase in 9 years.