Berkshire Hathaway

Dave Collum's 2016 Year In Review - "And Then Things Got Really Weird..."

"Markets don’t have a purpose any more - they just reflect whatever central planners want them to. Why wouldn’t it lead to the biggest collapse? My strategy doesn’t require that I’m right about the likelihood of that scenario. Logic dictates to me that it’s inevitable..."

2016 Year In Review

We started this year with the economy deteriorating and finished it with the second interest rate increase in ten years. There were a lot of ups and downs along the way, but ultimately 2016 was defined by three key story-lines:  1) Brexit 2) The Presidential Election 3) Fed Policy. The first two events were votes that shocked the world. The stock market’s reaction to each was arguably even more shocking. 

Buffett Wins Again: Berkshire To Get $29 Billion Boost Under Trump Tax Plan

Something curious happened as Trump was "draining the swamp" - the man who by some accounts owns the swamp, Hillary Clinton's billionaire backer Warren Buffett, may be about to get an "unexpected" windfall thanks to Trump's tax-rate cut policies which would boost the book value of Berkshire by as much as $29 billion.

Frontrunning: November 15

  • Biggest Global Bond Rout Since 2003 Pauses (BBG)
  • Oil prices jump 3 percent on hopes of OPEC output cut (Reuters)
  • Italy polls get worse for Renzi as referendum nears (Reuters)
  • Trump will get wake-up call when he takes office, Obama says (Reuters)
  • With Priebus, Ryan’s Speakership Has Direct Channel to Trump (BBG)
  • Supreme Court now in Trump’s hands (The Hill)

What Hedge Funds Bought And Sold In Q3: The Full 13-F Summary

Today was the deadline for hedge funds to submit their Q3 13-F filings, which considering they represent a snapshot in time as of Sept 30, prior to both the October volatility spike and the presidential election, are likely totally irrelevant by this time. Still, for those who religiously focus on hedge fund position changes, here is the list.

The Beer Goggles Stock Market

“Instead of pricing equities off this fragile state of earnings, look at valuations compared to revenue, which cannot be manipulated. This should give a better metric of how overvalued the equity market currently is.” With that, it would seem to be high time to don your rose-colored glasses...

Frontrunning: August 25

  • Stock futures lower as countdown to Yellen speech begins (Reuters)
  • Italy quake death toll nears 250 as rescuers search demolished towns (Reuters)
  • Central bankers eye public spending to plug $1 trillion investment gap (Reuters)
  • Chelsea Clinton Plans to Stay on Board of Family Foundation (WSJ)
  • Bond Traders Are Desperate for Direction From Yellen in Jackson Hole (BBG)