The global economy has had its artificial boom and CapEx frenzy already and years of deflationary liquidation and correction lie ahead. Money printing has failed. Any effort by the central banks to double down on another $20 trillion of bond purchases would blow the world’s financial casinos sky high. Contemporary central bankers function like a team of monetary wranglers, herding the retail cattle toward the asset gathers. At the end of the day, the asset gathers will profoundly regret what they are clamoring for.
My overriding theme and the central drama for the coming year is that unexpected events can take on greater importance as the Federal Reserve ends its near-decade-long Zero Interest Rate Policy. Consensus premises and forecasts will likely fall flat, in a rather spectacular manner. The low-conviction and directionless market that we saw in 2015 could become a no-conviction and very-much-directed market (i.e. one that's directed lower) in 2016. There will be no peace on earth in 2016, and our markets could lose a cushion of protection as valuations contract. (Just as "malinvestment" represented a key theme this year, we expect a compression of price-to-earnings ratios to serve as a big market driver in 2016.) In other words, we don't think 2016 will be fun.
World Leaders Just Agreed To A "Historic" Climate Accord... Which Is Non-Binding And Has No Enforcement LanguageSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 12/12/2015 14:58 -0500
Great news! The "greatest threat to future generations of the world" has apparently been solved. World leaders Saturday adopted an historic international climate accord in Paris, the first-ever agreement to commit almost every country to fight climate change. However, as we knew all along and just got confirmation, the 31-page pact does not have binding language or a mechanism to force countries to live up to the promises to cut greenhouse gases.
You know the one thing Mark Zuckerberg with all his Billions can’t do today without causing a media sensation throughout Wall Street? Hint: Sell. If we were in fact at the edge of a bubble in the Valley – how would one be able to sell at the top without bringing on some negative feedback loop in their stock price? With this newly formed “Initiative” any selling is now wrapped into a wonderful meme of “We’re not selling to profit. (or preserve) It’s for charity. And we’ve stated openly we were going to do just that. So, nothing to see here, please move along, thanks so much." Remember, also, this year is the first year that the once Holy Grail of “IPO’s to the promised land” have been mired in quicksand.
Without a rerun of last Friday's Chinese stock market rout, European traders could focus on what "really matters", namely how much of the ECB's upcoming 20 bps rate cut and €20 billion QE expansion (with Commerzbank saying Draghi may even hint at Europe's QE3) is priced in, and whether the ECB's actions are just modestly priced in, or more than fully, and just how big the "sell the news" event will be.The result: the Euro falls to a new 7 month low, the dollar spot index hits a new all time high, and European stocks and US futures stage another remarkable overnight comeback on the usual low volume levitation and central bank intervention.
To compare someone like Bernie Sanders to bloodthirsty monsters like Stalin and Pol Pot is too ludicrous for words. I've heard of slippery slopes before, but good lord, this guy must be totally off his rocker
Apple isn’t about Jobs anymore. He’s gone, and he’s not coming back. And the more Apple tries to fill that void, the deeper and wider the chasm becomes to fill by their own hand. Apple is no longer about a person – it’s about the product. And the product is the only thing capable of bridging that gap or hole left with the passing of Jobs. And the sooner Apple realizes it, and takes that to heart. The faster and better both Apple, their products, as well as the management and employees will be. Where they can all get back to doing what Jobs would be the most concerned with as well as probably proud of. i.e., Running a great company steered by smart people creating insanely great and revolutionary products second to none.
The topic of immigration has become increasingly pressing but, unfortunately, the libertarian movement has not reached a consensus on this issue. But it should be easy, considering how government is at both ends of the problem: government is the number one reason people choose to escape their countries, whether because of governments’ war or devastating poverty due to the lack of opportunities in regulated markets; and government is the reason ordinary people, in a desperate state because their lives have been forcefully uprooted, have a hard time choosing where to lead their lives in peace. The desperation is due to the so-called “failings” of their own governments, and augmented by ours.
"I’ve just slogged through all ninety-two pages of Donald Trump’s financial disclosure submission to the Federal Election Commission, and I can’t make heads or tails of it. I cannot tell how much Trump is worth, if anything. His empire, if he has one, is as mysterious as his haircut, and as impervious as his skyscraper in Chicago - a gigantic phallic mirror named after himself."
Since last week's FOX News poll, Donald Trump has extended his gains dramatically in the race to be GOP Presidential nominee. According to ABC-Washington Post latest poll, 24% of Republicans prefer Trump (up from 18% last week) with Scott Walker nudging ahead of Jeb Bush. Notably the poll was taken from Thursday to Sunday and so does include some reaction from Trump's McCain comments...
Demagogue or not, The Donald continues to gain support among Republicans for the GOP Presidential nomination, according to the latest FOX News poll, and among Republican primary voters, Trump now captures 18 percent: more than his closest competitor, Walker.
- WSJ urges Fed to blow uberest of all bubbles: Memo to Fed: Let the Economy Overheat (WSJ)
- Gunman at large after killing nine at black South Carolina church (Reuters)
- Nine Dead in Charleston Shooting Labeled a 'Hate Crime' (BBG)
- Hong Kong Votes Down Beijing-Backed Election Plan (WSJ)
- Greece Has Already Cost Investors $897 Billion This Year (BBG)
- Merkel Maintains Tough Stance on Greece as Deadline Looms (WSJ)
- Small U.S. frackers face extinction amid drilling drought (Reuters)
- Brian Williams to Stay at NBC, but Lester Holt Will Be Anchor (WSJ)
During the last 27 years the financial system has ballooned dramatically while the US economy has slowed to a crawl - a divergent trend that has intensified with the passage of time. While the rationale for monetary central planning is bogus, the model on which state intervention is based is even more invalid.