As we detailed previously, the first USD-denominated Chinese corporate bond default last week - of developer Kaisa Group - signals considerably deeper problems in China's economy as one manager noted, "everyone is rethinking risk right now." As Bloomberg reports, Chinese companies comprised 62% of all U.S. dollar bond sales in the Asia-Pacific region ex Japan last year, issuing $244.4 billion and that huge (and illiquid) market "has been too complacent," according to one credit strategist who warned, investors would be “rational to adopt a cautious approach in view of the fact that anything can happen, anywhere, anytime. It would be irrational to continue thinking that after Kaisa none of the companies will see a similar fate."
for years the big money managers stoically took it on the chin, and whether out of lazyness or some other unexplained motive, allowed their orders to continue being HFT-frontrun on public exchanges and 3rd party dark pools year after year, making VWAP and TWAP orders a cost center, boosting the case that HFTs aren't really bad for stocks. Until now. According to the WSJ, some of America's largest mutual funds and asset managers led by Fidelity Investments "are close to launching a private trading venue designed to let them buy and sell large blocks of stock without the involvement of Wall Street firms and high-speed traders, according to people familiar with the matter." The new venture is the who's who of traditional asset management and includes nine firms, including BlackRock Inc., Bank of New York Mellon Corp. , J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. and T. Rowe Price Group Inc., who are saying goodbye to "lit" markets, i.e. public exchanges, "and forming a company that will operate a their own "dark pool”...
- U.S. Index Futures Decline on Commodities Slump, Growth Concerns (BBG)
- Al Qaeda claims French attack, derides Paris rally (Reuters)
- Charlie Hebdo With Muhammad Cover on Sale With Heavy Security Precautions (BBG)
- How an Obscure Tax Loophole Brought Down Obama's Treasury Nominee (BBG)
- ECB’s bond plan is legal ‘in principle’ (FT)
- Charlie Hebdo fallout: Specter of fascist past haunts European nationalism (Reuters)
- DRW to acquire smaller rival Chopper Trading (FT)
- Oil fall could lead to capex collapse: DoubleLine's Gundlach (Reuters)
Stripped of accounting gimmicks, earnings are overstated by 86%. This means the S&P 500 is sporting a REAL P/E of over 30. So much for the argument that stocks are cheap.
Less than three months ago, on September 30, 2014, "consensus" expected that EPS and revenue growth in 2015 would be 11.8% and 4.3%, respectively. As of December 19, those projected growth rates have plunged to 7.9% and 2.8%. In other words, both revenue and EPS growth has been slashed by one third in under one quarter (while revenue growth for Q1 and Q2 2015 has cratered from 4.5% and 3.6% to 1.4% and 1.0%, respectively). Why? Spotting the "odd one out" in the charts below should provide the answer,
"It becomes tempting to take on too much leverage, use financial wizardry to reward shareholders or even stretch accounting principles. S&P 500 profits are 86% higher than they would be if accounting standards of the national accounts were used, Pelham Smithers Associates notes. And the gap between the two measures is widening, the research firm finds." - Blackrock
Japanese 10Y Yield Drops To Record Low; 2s Sell Subzero After BOJ Indirectly Buys Record Foreign StocksSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 12/25/2014 15:43 -0500
While the rest of the world was preparing to celebrate Christmas, China was busy easing its economy into growth, and its stock market into low earth orbit, by lowering non-bank deposit reserve rates to zero as reported previously, while Japan was enjoying the consequences of the BOJ monetizing 100% of all gross JGB issuance, when overnight the Japanese Ministry of Finance not only sold $22 billion in 2 Year paper at a negative yield of -0.003%: the first time ever a government note (not bill) has sold at a negative yield, but the Japanese 10 Year yield dropped to 0.31%, declining below the previously all time low hit on April 2013 when the BOJ first announced its unprecedented QE program.
Despite the authorities' best efforts to keep everything orderly, we know how this global Game of Geopolitical Tetris ends: "Players lose a typical game of Tetris when they can no longer keep up with the increasing speed, and the Tetriminos stack up to the top of the playing field. This is commonly referred to as topping out."
"I’m tired of being outraged!"
- Ruble Sinks to 80 a Dollar Defying Surprise Russia Rate Increase (BBG)
- Oil slumps near $59 for first time since 2009 on oversupply (Reuters)
- Oil sinks, Russian moves fail to quell nerves (Reuters)
- Fed Seen Looking Past Low Inflation to Drop ‘Considerable Time (BBG)
- Students Among Dead as Pakistan Gunmen Kill 126 at Army School (BBG)
- Repsol to buy Talisman Energy for $13 billion (Reuters)
- Indonesia’s Rupiah Erases Decline After Central Bank Intervenes (BBG)
- Anti-Islam Rally Grows as Immigrant Backlash Hits Europe (BBG)
- Saudi Arabia is playing chicken with its oil (Reuters)
Curious how over the past 6 years we got to a point where the market is now so irreparably broken, even the BIS couldn't take it anymore and threw up all over the the world's central bankers? Then look no further than the following chart summarizing 6 years of global central bank liquidity injections that have made it imperative to use quotation marks every time one writes the word "market"
- Thanks Fed: Meet the high schooler who made $300K trading penny stocks under his desk (Verge)
- Protesters block NY streets after officer cleared in chokehold death (Reuters)
- U.S. Plans Probe of New York Police Chokehold Death (BBG)
- Sharpton Leads Civil-Rights Meeting on Chokehold Decision (BBG)
- Staten Island on Edge Over Grand Jury Decision In Death of Eric Garner (WSJ)
- Draghi Tests Speed Limit as ECB Awaits Stimulus Evidence (BBG)
- European Stocks Approach Seven-Year High Before Draghi Statement (BBG)
- Britain targets multinationals that try to dodge taxes (Reuters)
- Oil Trains Hide in Plain Sight (WSJ)
- They go all in: China’s PBOC Cuts Interest Rates for First Time Since 2012 (BBG)
- And all in-er: ECB's Draghi throws door to quantitative easing wide open as recovery wanes (Reuters)
- Global Markets Rally: ECB Head Says Central Bank Is Ready to Expand Stimulus Program After China Cuts Rates (WSJ)
- Obama unveils U.S. immigration reform, setting up fight with Republicans (Reuters)
- U.S. increasing non-lethal military aid to Ukraine (Reuters)
- Russia warns U.S. against arms to Ukraine as Biden due in Kiev (Reuters)
- Ukraine slashed gold holdings in October, Russia added more - IMF (Reuters)
- Abe Dissolves Japan’s Lower House of Parliament (WSJ)
PIMCO PAID GROSS $290 MILLION BONUS FOR 2013, DOCUMENT SHOWS
PIMCO PAID FORMER CEO EL-ERIAN ABOUT $230 MLN BONUS IN 2013
In the old days, maybe 6 or 7 years ago, there was a reason high-yield bonds had a high-yield... because they were 'risky'. Now, thanks to the transformative efforts of the world's central banks, there is no risk anymore and Rwanda has figured that out. As AllAfrica reports, Rwandan sovereign wealth fund money is being invested in high-yield instruments so that it can grow and be used to fund the country's development projects. "This way, the Fund will grow faster and will be used to support development projects sooner," says the fund's CEO. What could possibly go wrong?
- Republicans expect gains, but many races close on election day (Reuters)
- Ahead of tough election, White House blames dismay with Washington (Reuters)
- On Election Day, a Tale of the Young and the Old (WSJ)
- Because the recovery: Sprint to Cut 2,000 Jobs as Mobile Customers Keep Leaving (BBG)
- Ukraine's rebel leader is sworn in, crisis deepens (Reuters)
- Brilliant: Burkina Faso Army Promises Religious Leaders It Will Step Down (BBG)
- More Unknowns Leave Central Banks Facing Greater Internal Strife (BBG)
- Scapegoat found: IBM to Change Leadership at Global Services Unit (WSJ)
- Explains why Europe just slashed its GDP forecast: Don’t Be Fooled by Warm Spell as Cold Air About to Return (BBG)