Blackrock

ECB Preview: The Market's All-In But "There's A Significant Chance Draghi Disappoints"

Blackrock's chief multi-asset strategist summed up tomorrow's anxiously awaited ECB meeting best by noting that "what’s priced into markets is a fully fledged extension of the [bond-buying] program," but warns that, thanks to a muted reaction to the Italy vote and recent encouraging data, "there’s a significant chance the ECB disappoints markets." As bond traders bet on a six-month QE extension, Citi warns, anything less will be seen as hawkish and send EUR surging.

Schwarzman, Dimon, Fink Will Advise Trump How To Create Jobs

Donald Trump today announced that he is establishing the President’s Strategic and Policy Forum. The Forum will be called upon to meet with the President "frequently to share their specific experience and knowledge as the President implements his plan to bring back jobs and Make America Great Again. The Forum will be chaired by Stephen Schwarzman, Chairman, CEO, and Co-Founder of Blackstone." Its members also include Jamie Dimon and Larry Fink.

The Market's Next Headache: China's (Not So) Stealth Tightening

In recent weeks, China’s central bank has effectively tightened monetary conditions based on the shifting composition of its repo operations. As a result, the local bond market is getting increasingly nervous as selling - first of bonds, and then of equities - is expected to accelerate in response to what appears to be China's (not to) stealth tightening of financial conditions.

What "The Worst Bond Rout In 15 Years" Means For Stocks

"The paradigm has shifted in terms of inflation. Long-end interest rates are dangerous. Make sure you are being really careful about the long-end exposure as we saw this week." - Rick Rieder, CIO for global fixed income at BlackRock.

BOJ "Fires Warning At Bond Market" Sending Global Yields, Dollar Lower; All Eyes On Yellen

Global bond yields and the dollar both weakened after the Bank of Japan offered to buy an unlimited amount of debt at fixed yields, stabilizing the global bond rout, while investors awaited testimony from Fed Chair Janet Yellen that will help shape the outlook for interest rates ahead of a December rate hike that is now seen as near certain.

Crushing The $50 Trillion Sideline Cash Conundrum

Blackrock estimates there is a whopping $50 trillion in cash "sitting on the sidelines." Bloomberg writer Lisa Abramowicz calls it a 'conundrum', but, as we have pointed out numerous times, there is no conundrum because there is no such thing as "sideline cash." Someone has to hold every penny printed into existence, at every point in time until reverse repos drain the cash...

Frontrunning: November 3

  • Cubs Win 1st Series Title Since 1908, Beat Indians in Game 7 (BBG)
  • Trump, Clinton blast each other on character; Clinton rises in poll (Reuters)
  • Trump-effect grips world stocks, dollar (BBG)
  • No Brexit without Parliament approval: High Court (Reuters)
  • With Iraqi troops at Mosul's gate, Baghdadi promises victory (Reuters)
  • China Slowdown Deepens Looming Pension Crisis (WSJ)

Investors Have Pulled $8 Billion From Deutsche Bank's ETF Unit

DB has continued to hemmorhage cash with the FT reporting that the German lender's exchange traded fund unit has seen billions in outflows as Germany’s biggest lender considers whether to sell parts of its asset management business. Specifically, investors have pulled $8bn from Deutsche’s ETF arm so far this year.

Cashless Society - Is The War On Cash Set To Benefit Gold?

If governments allow banks to shut down bank accounts of individuals or companies without a fair trial and due legal process, it will create a very dangerous situation indeed. In this environment, buying gold is rational behaviour to even the biggest paper-bugs out there. The current monetary experiment of massive QE is no longer the main concern of prudent investors and institutions, it is now combined with negative interest rates and bail-ins.

Frontrunning: October 19

  • China third quarter GDP grows 6.7 percent as expected as construction booms, debt rises (Reuters)
  • China Growing at 6.7% Opens Window to Deliver Debt-Curb Vow (BBG)
  • U.S. expects Islamic State to wield chemical weapons in Mosul fight (Reuters)
  • Iraq urges U.S.-led coalition to prevent Islamic State escape to Syria (Reuters)
  • Fox national poll shows Clinton leading by six points (Hill)

How The "Perverse Economic Effects Created By ETFs" Are Setting Up The Next Crash

1. In a world of manic factor crowding via the exponential growth of cheap passive index and smart beta products, get ready for the class-action lawsuits in a future-state. And:
2. this is BEYOND GOLD as an example of “tail wagging dog” / “echo chamber” / “feedback loop amplification” from the market structure shift experienced within the industry over the past 10+ years.