Budget Deficit

9 Lessons From The Reagan Tax Cuts

A close look at the ’86 tax reform shows why tax reform may not get done this year. As BofAML's Ethan Harris notes, "we are skeptical." Significant tax reform creates winners and losers, which may make it hard to find a "coalition of the willing."

Goldman: Investors Will Soon Realize They Were Too Optimistic

"We are approaching the point of maximum optimism and S&P 500 will give back recent gains as investors embrace the reality that tax reform is likely to provide a smaller, later tailwind to corporate earnings than originally expected."

The Four Key Themes From Q4 Conference Calls

Since President Trump’s surprise victory over Hillary Clinton in November, investors and management teams have been acutely focused on the new administration’s policy proposals. As expected, all 4 key themes discussed on Q4 conference calls are closely linked to Trump's policies and include tax reform, regulation, fiscal spending and trade policy.

Three Things Are About To Derail Trump's Fiscal Plan, Goldman Warns

With every passing week Goldman has been turning increasingly more pessimistic on Trump's proposed fiscal and budget plans, and it all culminated in a report released over the weekend, in which Goldman's Alec Phillips explains that over the next few months fiscal reofrm watchers will be disappointed as "three factors will make this year’s budget plans even more difficult to put together."

Frontrunning: February 8

  • Stock futures little changed amid earnings rush (Reuters)
  • Workers Set to Strike at World’s Largest Copper Mine (WSJ)
  • For Trump Travel Ban, Hard Questions From U.S. Appeals Court (BBG)
  • Melania Trump Sues Mail Online for $150 Million (BBG)
  • Ivanka Trump oversaw Murdoch daughters’ trust (FT)

The Honeymoon Is Over: Goldman Slams Trump's Economic Plan, No Longer Expects A Border Tax

"One month into the year, the balance of risks is somewhat less positive for three reasons. First, the difficulty congressional Republicans have had in moving forward on Obamacare; Second, while bipartisan cooperation looked possible following the election, the political environment appears to be as polarized as ever; Third, some of the recent actions by the Trump Administration could be disruptive for financial markets and the real economy." - Goldman Sachs

Frontrunning: January 25

  • Reignited 'Trump trades' help world stocks hit 19-month high (Reuters)
  • Trump moving forward with border wall, weighs refugee cuts (AP)
  • Trump's 'America First' lets China play world leader (Reuters)
  • High Tariffs on China, Mexico Wouldn’t Guarantee U.S. Jobs (WSJ)
  • Trump warns he's ready to 'send in the Feds' to Chicago (AP)