Budget Deficit

Brazil Posts Largest Budget Deficit Ever As Rousseff Cries "Coup," Olympic Ad Sales Top $1 Billion

Less than 24 hours after VP Michel Temer's PMDB split with President Dilma Rousseff's coalition government, Brazil posted its largest primary deficit on record, underscoring how dire the fiscal situation has become amid the political and economic turmoil. Meanwhile, NBC is still selling ads for this summer's Olympic games in Rio. Who's interested in some expensive air time? 

"It's An Attack On Higher Education": Connecticut Seeks To Tax Yale Endowment As Plug To Surging Deficit

In the aftermath of Connecticut yield spreads blowing out to the widest ever over fears of surging budget deficits, a proposed Connecticut bill is seeking a share of Yale's endowment gains as a source of state tax revenue. According to the introduced legislature, schools with funds of $10 billion or more, which is clearly aimed at Yale as that is the only university to fit the criteria. Yale’s record $25.6 billion fund is the second largest in U.S. higher education.

Frontrunning: March 23

  • Futures little changed day after Brussels attacks (Reuters)
  • Trump, Clinton win big in Arizona, but Cruz, Sanders show fight (Reuters)
  • Belgium identifies Brussels bomb suspect, suicide bombers (Reuters)
  • After Brussels Terrorist Attacks, Security Ramped Up in U.S. Cities (WSJ)
  • Terror Impact Threatens Cameron EU Pitch, Merkel's Open Door (BBG)
  • Brussels Attacks Will Jolt 2016 U.S. Presidential Race (WSJ)

Connecticut Credit Risk Spikes To Record High

Amid cuts in aid and surging taxes, it appears the market remains less than impressed at Connecticut's debt sustainability. Following last week's disappointing bond auction, CT bond risk has spiked to 65bps over the benchmark - a record spread demanded by investors to take CT repayment risk. CT becomes the 4th riskiest US state after NJ, IL, and PA. Is it any wonder more people than ever are looking to leave the increasing tax burden of this troubled state.

Spot The Sucker: Brazil Stocks Edition

If you are a foreign investor in Brazilian equities and you can't look at the net purchases chart shown here and tell us who the sucker is, well then you are the sucker.

Norway Cuts Rates, Hints At NIRP, QE As Central Bank Falls (Way) Behind In FX Wars

Facing pressure from competitive easing at the ECB, the Riksbank, and the NationalBank, and with low oil prices weighing on the economy even as the dynamics of fiscal stimulus force the Norges Bank to be a reluctant buyer of NOK, Norway relents, cutting rates by 25bps and hinting at further cuts to come. 

"In The Last Seven Years, China Accounted For 40% Of All Global Debt Creation"

China's velocity of money is now the lowest in the entire world, a world in which China provided 40% of the entire credit impulse since 2008: "In the last seven years, China has accounted for around ~40% of entire global incremental debt creation. Such a rapid accumulation of debt in less than a decade, when combined with the capital-intensive nature of the economy and a less sophisticated financial sector, drove China’s velocity of money to one of the lowest levels globally (~0.5x, i.e. below that of Japan)."

A Conversation With My Neighbor "Sam"

“What if the banks stop loaning you money to make your payments on your loans? What happens then?”

“I guess I’m assuming that won’t happen.”

Asian Surge Continues As Rally Stalls In Europe; S&P Futures Unchanged

While Asian stocks continued their longest rally since August overnight, led higher for the third consecutive day on the back of Japan (+1.3%), Australia (+1.2%) and China (+0.4%) strength, European stocks have as of this moment halted their longest rally since October (Stoxx -0.1%) and U.S. index futures are little changed. Oil slipped from an eight-week high despite yesterday's massive rise in US oil inventories on hopes Saudi Arabia may be forced to cut production as its budget strains grow actue and the kingdom is forced to seek a $10 billion loan, its first material borrowing in a decade.