Budget Deficit

Just Reuters headlines for now: the CBO has reduced its 2010 budget deficit from $1.368 trillion to $1.342 trillion, even as it kicks the can down the road yet again, raising the 2011 budget deficit estimate from $0.966 trillion to $1.066 trillion: in other words a net deficit increase by $44 billion. Good thing nobody even cares about the 2012 number now that Mayan apocalypse predictions are fully priced into a Dow 36,000 number.

The FMS has released its July monthly budget: on receipts of $156 billion and outlays of ($321) billion, the total budget deficit was ($165) billion, on expectations of ($169) billion. This marks the 22nd straight month of budget deficits and is the longest string on record. The comparable numbers in 2009 were receipts of $152 billion, or roughly comparable to this year, while outlays were $11 billion higher at ($332), for a total deficit of ($180) billion Total YTD receipts now amount to $1.752 trillion. With just two months left the in the fiscal year, the budget estimate is for total revenue of $2.132 trillion. On the outlays side, the US has spent $2.922 trillion YTD, and budgets total outlays of $3.603 trillion. More importantly, with 22 months of deficits, it is now increasingly clear that America will never have a monthly surplus ever again. And the more debt is issued, the riskier the budget picture becomes, as the second rates begin increasing, now that the duration of US debt has increased by one year in the past 18 months, the interest payments are sure to explode, requiring even more borrowing, and so on, in true subprime borrower fashion, ad inf.

June budget outlays came in at the largest ever for the month. Also 2010 Federal individual income tax collections are running 4.4% lower, or $31 billion below 2009 levels: the economic "recovery" sure isn't causing greater tax receipts. And from the report: "The federal government incurred a deficit of just over $1.0 trillion for the first nine months of fiscal year 2010, CBO estimates, $81 billion less than the roughly $1.1 trillion deficit incurred through June 2009. Revenues so far this year are slightly higher than they were last year at this time; outlays are about 3 percent lower. CBO estimates that receipts in June were $36 billion (or 17 percent) higher than collections in June 2009. Morethan half of that difference stemmed from an increase of $19 billion (or almost 60 percent) in net receipts from corporate income taxes. Gross receipts from those taxes rose by $15 billion (or 37 percent), primarily because of higher estimated payments for the current year; a $4 billion decline in corporate income tax refunds also bolstered net corporate receipts."

It must have been at least a week without the US government announcing some stimulus, subsidy, tariff or other protectionist measure, because today the government just passed yet another$79 billion stimulus bill, extending unemployment benefits and restoring expired tax breaks. The net cost to the deficit: around $30 billion. This really is a drop in the bucket: so far in fiscal 2010, the US budget has already spent over $ 107 billion on unemployment benefits, and $30 billion is less than the government raises in one of its three biweekly coupon auctions. On the other hand, when Obama next wonders why nobody in America works any more, he may want to reevaluate that 6 million unemployed people in the US are now encouraged to be on government payrolls for two years.

A few days after the economists have had some time to digest the latest GDP numbers, the results are coming in, and they aren't pretty... And to Obama's chagrin they aren't going to get any better. The end of the stimulus "sugar high" is approaching, and most likely will culminate with the mid-term elections: the attached piece by BofA only solidifies this observation. Bank of America, after Goldman, is now the latest major bailed out bank to join the bandwagon decrying US fiscal insanity (oddly enough, few have much to say about the lunatics in charge of monetary matters). And that's just for the medium-term. Speaking of lunatics, for those curious about the long-term, who can summarize it better than the Oracle of Constitution Avenue himself: "Unfortunately, we cannot grow our way out of this problem. No credible forecast suggests that future rates of growth of the US economy will be sufficient to close these deficits without significant changes to our fiscal policies." - none other than B.S. Bernanke. Furthermore, this is the real problem, forget all about G-Pap reelection chances (none to negative): Greece is just a pleasant distraction compared to what would happen if the US can't roll $700 billion in short-term debt each month.

Yesterday Goldman was saying that the quadrillions in soon to be issued Federal debt is nothing to worry about. Today the firm's rapidly self-discrediting economic team shifts its eyes to the deficit, which for the Projected 2010 is now estimated to be a blowout improvement: "$1.575bn (10.7% of GDP) from $1.64bn (11.2%) previously." Well, that's a great comfort. Oh wait, it isn't. "We have not made a formal change to our projection that the deficit will total $10.8 trillion (trn) over the next ten fiscal years given the comparatively small size of the change for FY 2010 and the considerable uncertainty inherent in the longer-term view." $11 trillion deficit. But at least somehow the national debt is nothing to worry about...While we reproduce the full note in its entirety below for those who feel like laughing, we point out Goldman's observations not only on tax receipts, but on tax receipts net of withholdings, a concept which according to some of our colleagues makes no sense. We'll be sure to let Jan Hatzius know asap. "Personal income tax revenues appear to be on the verge of noticeable improvement.  Over the first six months of the fiscal year, personal income tax receipts net of refunds are actually down significantly – 8.4% versus our assumption of nearly a 10% decline.  Reflecting last year’s sharp drop in personal income, final tax settlements on 2009 returns are running about 11% below year-earlier levels, and refunds (as reported in the Daily Treasury Statement) have been up about 5%.  However, withholdings of personal income taxes have improved noticeably in the past two months. [uhm, March yes, April no. see here] While some of this is due to calendar effects (March 2010 had one more business day than March 2009), the underlying trend appears to have moved from deeply negative through January to mildly positive since then [again, no - true for March, false for April].  As the economic recovery continues, we project that this trend will remain positive – between +5% and +10% – over the balance of the fiscal year.  This assumption adds $56bn to our estimate for personal income tax receipts, trimming the expected year-to-year setback by nearly two-thirds, to about 3.5%." Ah yes, and just as UBS wishes 2011 will be the new "new revenue story" so do 10 million drunk Irishmen see a pot of gold at the end of the rainbow. Goldman - meet Unicorn ranch.

All hell is breaking loose in Europe on the just released EuroStat report which presents an "objective" look at various countries' realistic debt and budget deficit pictures sans governmental propaganda and lies. And while Greece is getting pounded for good reason, another country where the discrepancy between estimates and reality was even worse is Portgual, whose deficit EuroStat disclosed at -9.4%, on expectations of a -8% number. In the meantime Goldman is reaping a veritable bonanza trading 1 Year Greek CDS (which is at 900 bps) which now has a 200 bps bid/ask spread! Other entities getting bushwhacked as a result include Ireland, which is 23 wider at 173 bps (nothing flattering about the Irish in the EuroStat report either), and Banco Comercial Portugues SA which is 38 bps wider to 297. PIIGS are officially in freefall after the truth has finally set them free.

What is wrong with this picture: the MTS just announced that the February budget deficit was $220.9 billion, after receipts of just $107.5 billion with vastly surpassed by outlays of $328.4 billion. This is a record. Yet the interest on the public debt was a mere $16.9 billion (page 13 of the MTS report). The reason for this is because as TreasuryDirect points out, in February the interest on public marketable debt (actual cash outlays), which as of Monday stood at $8.061 trillion, hit an all time low of 2.548%. How is it possible that unprecedented debt accumulation can result in ever declining interest rates, and Treasury auctions, such as today's 10 Year reopening, in which the Bid To Cover hit an all time high? One answer: The Federal Reserve, which through complete domination of the entire capital market courtesy of ZIRP and QE has now turned market logic upside down by 180 degrees. In a normal world, the more money you borrow, the greater the associated risk, and the greater the interest payments on this debt. Not in America though. So can we assume that the Fed can forever keep rates on debt at record low levels? No. Which begs the question: what happens when interest rates do finally start going up?

It's Friday after the close - time for the government to sneak one past traders, who are already on their fifth moqito. And sure enough, the bomb today comes from the Congressional Budget Office: The CBO, in an annual analysis of the White House budget proposal, said today that under Obama’s plan deficits would never shrink below 4 percent of the economy between now and 2020. The cumulative deficits would total $9.76 trillion, and debt held by the public would amount to 90 percent of the nation’s gross domestic product by 2020, the CBO said. In other words, the CBO has just confirmed that America has, at best, 10 years before it is officially bankrupt. That's about 9 years of multi-trillion bonuses for Goldman Sachs. Congratulations fellas.

As expected, following earlier protestation by the Greek finance ministry, Erik Nielsen recants (but not entirely). After all, who knows what else the Greek FinMin can disclose about GS swaps and other "financial innovation" exports, should this devolve to a full blown mudslinging competition.

Goldman is not making any friends today (to be expected - Greece likely does not need Goldman's creative swap accounting anymore - after all, they (Greece, not Goldman) are bankrupt right? Why else would they need a bailout). Earlier we first reported about Goldman's novel read of the "revised" Greek budget. It appears Greece is not too happy with this and is already blaming Goldman for data misinterpretation. We await Erik Nielsen's mea culpa.

Goldman's Erik Nielsen lands the bombshell that the Greek deficit mysteriously increased from €29.4 billion to a shopping €37.9 (keep in mind, this is not Bernanke notation where only quad- prefixes impress people at this point). This increases the (running) 2009 budget deficit from 12.2% to 16%! While certainly not the last time we hear of "prior revisions", the question of just how patient Germany will be, should this number approach, oh say, 50% once the artificial support of various Goldman swaps expires (and at 50% the BSDs like Goldman will surely round up to 100%), is very much open.

A terrific chart out of the New York Times, demonstrating succinctly the endless abyss that the actual US budget is becoming (ignore the rosy expectations for a surplus - the likelihood that the US can claw its way back out of the hole at this point are slime to none). The attached article by David Leonhardt, America's Sea of Red Ink Was Years In The Making, is also a good read, and shows just how deep the sovereign debt rabbit hole goes.

If only it were as easy to ban the budget deficit. We have $118 billion in coupons on deck to be auctioned off on February 1. Out of curiosity, does the prop trading ban also make quantitative trading, aka the Fed's prop trading operation, also illegal?

The December budget numbers are out and they are ugly. December was the record 15th straight budget deficit in a row with -$91.9 billion more in outflows than inflows, compared to a $51.8 billion deficit in December of 2008. Fiscal 2010 budget deficit so far is -$388.5 billion, and $1.47 trillion for the trailing twelve months.