Budget Deficit

Federal Reserve Initiates End Game As Trump Heads To White House

The election of Donald Trump was inevitable and would precede the triggering of the final stage of our ongoing economic crisis. The Fed’s timing of their latest rate hike is highly strategic, not only setting the stage for a series of hikes that will crush U.S. stock markets this coming year and finally shock the public out of their fiscal stupor, but it also maneuvers the crisis right into the lap of Donald Trump and the conservative movements that support him.

Forget The Fed: For JPMorgan This Is The Biggest Catalyst Heading Into 2017

"The next very big catalyst for this market will be the Trump/Ryan tax reform plan and how it makes its way through Congress. Elevated political expectations are the single biggest risk for the tape and once the year-end chase rally euphoria wears off this will likely weigh on sentiment."

US Budget Deficit Doubles As November Spending Hits All Time Monthly High

The U.S. budget deficit soared last month, highlighting the growing mismatch between government spending and revenues. The government ran a $136.7 billion deficit in November, more than double that reported one year ago. The reason for the spike: outlays rose roughly 25% compared with November 2015, and hit an all time high of $226.5 billion for the month of November.

Indian Economy Crashes As Modi's "Black Money" Theory Collapses

Amid social unrest and loss of faith in the nation's currency, India's economy has ground to a halt with its Composite PMI crashing by a record in the last month as demonetization strikes. However, even more problematic is that Indians have validated 82% of bank notes rendered worthless by PM Modi, dramatically undermining the government’s estimate of unaccounted wealth in the economy.

How Russia Outsmarted OPEC

Russia, along with Iran, could turn into the big winner of the agreement, enjoying high output and higher prices, which would allow it to further expand its global market share. Unless, of course, OPEC lies, as former Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi plainly said this week. “Unfortunately,” he said, “we tend to cheat,” commenting on how OPEC handles its only tool of market rebalancing: production cuts.

Goldman Raises S&P Target To 2,400 On "Trump Hope"

"Hope" will dominate through 1Q 2017 as S&P 500 climbs by 9% to 2400 according to a just released revised forecast by Goldman Sachs. The firm adds that "instead of our baseline adjusted EPS growth of 5% to $123, growth could accelerate to 11% and reach $130, which would support a P/E multiple above 18x." However, Goldman warns that "Fear" is likely to pervade during 2H and S&P 500 will end 2017 at 2300, roughly 5% above the current level.

Aussie Housing Market Collapses: Building Approvals Crash 25%

Following September's 9.3% MoM plunge in Aussie home approvals, hopes were high that October would see a bounce (expectations were for a 2% gain) as central bankers jawboned confidence higher. However, it didn't... Building approvals collapsed 12.6% MoM and a shocking 24.9% year-over-year decline is equal to the worst drop since Lehman. Ironically, just this month Aussie Treasurer eased restrictions on foreign buyers (otherwise known as bag holders it would seem).