Budget Deficit

Frontrunning: February 8

  • Stock futures little changed amid earnings rush (Reuters)
  • Workers Set to Strike at World’s Largest Copper Mine (WSJ)
  • For Trump Travel Ban, Hard Questions From U.S. Appeals Court (BBG)
  • Melania Trump Sues Mail Online for $150 Million (BBG)
  • Ivanka Trump oversaw Murdoch daughters’ trust (FT)

The Honeymoon Is Over: Goldman Slams Trump's Economic Plan, No Longer Expects A Border Tax

"One month into the year, the balance of risks is somewhat less positive for three reasons. First, the difficulty congressional Republicans have had in moving forward on Obamacare; Second, while bipartisan cooperation looked possible following the election, the political environment appears to be as polarized as ever; Third, some of the recent actions by the Trump Administration could be disruptive for financial markets and the real economy." - Goldman Sachs

Frontrunning: January 25

  • Reignited 'Trump trades' help world stocks hit 19-month high (Reuters)
  • Trump moving forward with border wall, weighs refugee cuts (AP)
  • Trump's 'America First' lets China play world leader (Reuters)
  • High Tariffs on China, Mexico Wouldn’t Guarantee U.S. Jobs (WSJ)
  • Trump warns he's ready to 'send in the Feds' to Chicago (AP)

Why Morgan Stanley Thinks Stocks "Will Do Worse Under The New Administration"

"Returns will likely do worse under the new administration than under the departing one, and where exceptions to this may be. That statement is linked to a simple idea. Good market environments often involve a shift from economic despair to optimism, and a shift in psychology from ‘fear’ to ‘greed’. Both occurred over the last eight years, producing returns well above the long-run average."

After Getting Almost Nothing Right In 2016, Here Are Byron Wien's "Ten Surprises" For 2017

After incorrectly predicting virtually every "surprise" for 2016 one year ago, the bulls better beware because in Byron Wien's list of "ten surprises" for 2017, the 83-year-old Blackstoner has turned decidedly bullish this time, and expects the S&P to surge to 2,500 while the US economy grows at a brisk 3%. With that, he may have just doomed any hope for a non-recession in 2017.