The ECB, Fed and mostly the BOJ, all did nothing during the recent round of central bank announcements, but hopes are high that the RBA will not disappoint tonight. The Australian central bank is expected by both the market and economists to cut the Daily Cash Rate by 25bps from 1.75% to 1.50% when it announces its decision at 2.30pm AEST.
The Saudi circular ref (low oil prices -> budget deficits -> more oil pumping -> even lower oil prices) continues to iterate toward it's ultimate conclusion which (spoiler alert) will not be pleasant... and the banking system bailouts have only just begun.
After breaking a multi-year stretch of 9 daily record highs in the Dow Jones, overnight global markets saw some early weakness with Asian stocks retreating after BOJ chief Kuroda dashed hopes for so-called helicopter money, triggering yen’s steepest rally in a month and pulling the Nikkei lower by 1.1%. This however did not last long, and around the European open the traditional ramp in the USDJPY helped European equities shrug off early downside, while US equity futures have already recovered half of yesterday's losses.
In short, the market is not trading on a rebound in GDP, revenue growth or a breakout of already elevated profit margins. It’s just high on one more dose of monetary cocaine that in short order will prove to have been not even that.
In a session where bleary-eyed traders followed the all-night tragic developments out of Dallas and initially sold off risk assets, it is good to see that some normalcy prevailed with the traditional post Europe-open futures ramp, which was further assisted by the successful resolution of the Dallas standoff, which has pushed futures modestly higher ahead of today's main event for markets, the June payrolls report due in under two hours.
Spain’s Social Security system is expected to go broke by 2018. In the US, concerns over such matters are virtually nonexistent. But Spain cannot print Euros, and is already deep in the hole on meeting budget deficit targets.
Is another major bank bailout event on the horizon? It appears so. And Italy may not be alone. In comments that were little noticed yesterday, Germany's Schauble said that Portugal may see another bailout too, saying "It would have to apply for a new program, which it would get. But the terms would be severe and it is not in Portugal's interests."