We started this year with the economy deteriorating and finished it with the second interest rate increase in ten years. There were a lot of ups and downs along the way, but ultimately 2016 was defined by three key story-lines: 1) Brexit 2) The Presidential Election 3) Fed Policy. The first two events were votes that shocked the world. The stock market’s reaction to each was arguably even more shocking.
If one is to hedge with Treasury securities, they must also consider what happens if yields do not decline during a market correction.What if “safe-haven” securities traditionally used for hedging purposes were to lose 5% to 10% or even 20% or more?
Sounding another alarm for progressives wary of the Democratic establishment's support for Wall Street, the man said to be leading the pack of potential Hillary Clinton running mates- Virginia Sen. Tim Kaine - has just this week sent a clear message to big banks: He's in their corner.
The largest U.S. banks got permission from regulators to return profits to investors, but the U.S. banking units of Deutsche Bank and Banco Santander were held back again as the Federal Reserve released the final results of its 2016 "stress tests."
On the day in which the government reported modestly stronger than expected retail sales for the month of May, signalling a return to strength for spending and the US consumer - the driving force behind 70% of US GDP - a far more ominous statistic was revealed by credit card company Synchrony Financial, which earlier today announced in a regulatory filing that it expects write-off rates to climb 20 to 30 basis points over the next 12 months, and will increase reserves for soured loans beginning this quarter.
Jamie Dimon said the market for U.S. automobile lending is “a little stressed” and that he foresees higher losses ahead for some competitors. “Someone will get hurt in auto lending,” but not JPMorgan, Dimon said. Meanwhile, CEO Citigroup Mike Corbat indicated that the company's second-quarter net income will be roughly 25% lower than the same period a year earlier, roughly the same as the abysmal first quarter.
"Security prices are not low. I wouldn’t say high, but full. So people are thinking cautiously but they’re acting bullish and they’re behaving in a pro-risk fashion. While investor behavior hasn’t sunk to the depths seen just before the crisis, in many ways I feel it has entered the zone of imprudence... The market is not an accommodating machine. It will not go where you want it to go just because you need it to go there."
The biggest shocker in COF's earnings release was something found between COF's top and bottom line: a surge in provisions for credit losses: at $1.1 billion this was a jump of 21% from Q1 and up a whopping 60% from the year prior. It was also the biggest credit loss provision the credit card company has taken since Q2 2012.