Capital One

Economic Reality: Bottom 50% Of Americans No Longer Matter

Previously, the bottom third did not matter. Then the bottom 40% did not matter. Now the bottom 50% do not matter. Brexit was the first warning shot. Trump was the second. As soon as the bottom 65% don’t matter, those 65% may vote to take matters into their own hands.

US Rig Count Rise Continues As Crude Production Hits 20-Month Highs

From the May 2016 lows, the number of US oil rig counts have only declined 3 times and this week was no exception. Up for its 15th week in a row (+9 to 697), its highest level since April 2015, the rig count continues to pull US crude production higher, stymying OPEC efforts at balance, leaving the bullish case for oil fading fast.

Frontrunning: February 24

  • Futures drop along with oil prices (Reuters)
  • The U.S. Is the World’s Third-Best Equity Market Since 1900 (BBG)
  • U.S. Talks With Mexico Clouded by Mixed Message (WSJ)
  • A Tea Party for the left? Liberals hope so (Reuters)
  • Kushner, Ivanka Trump Block Attack on Paris Pact (WSJ)
  • Saudi Arabia’s Oil Wealth Is About to Get a Reality Check (BBG)

2016 Year In Review

We started this year with the economy deteriorating and finished it with the second interest rate increase in ten years. There were a lot of ups and downs along the way, but ultimately 2016 was defined by three key story-lines:  1) Brexit 2) The Presidential Election 3) Fed Policy. The first two events were votes that shocked the world. The stock market’s reaction to each was arguably even more shocking. 

Frontrunning: October 17

  • Bonds Selloff Spreads on Inflation Concern; Stocks Fall With Oil (BBG)
  • Trump charges U.S. election results being rigged 'at many polling places'  (Reuters)
  • CNN’s Stelter Blames Firebombing of NC Republican Office on Trump's 'Over Heated' Rhetoric (Newsbusters)
  • Britain, France seek EU condemnation of Russia over Syria (Reuters)
  • Inside the Secret Society of Wall Street's Top In-House Lawyers (BBG)

Diversify At Your Own Risk

If one is to hedge with Treasury securities, they must also consider what happens if yields do not decline during a market correction. What if “safe-haven” securities traditionally used for hedging purposes were to lose 5% to 10% or even 20% or more?