Carl Icahn

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Frontrunning: May 19





  • China’s Record Capital Outflows Spark Financial Stability Fears (FT)
  • U.K. Inflation Falls Below Zero for First Time Since 1960 (BBG)
  • Islamic State Solidifies Foothold in Libya to Expand Reach (WSJ)
  • Judge sentences 11 Afghan police over lynching of woman in Kabul (Reuters)
  • The $18 Trillion Global Economic Boost If Everything Went Right (BBG)
  • Eurozone Prices Confirmed Flat Year-on-Year in April, Core Inflation Inches Higher (Reuters)
  • Greek Finances to Stagger On Longer Than You Think (BBG)
  • Athens sees EU deal soon, Greeks' approval of government stance dwindles (Reuters)
 
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This Is What A $240/Share AAPL Would Look Like In Context





If Carl Icahn, whose $6.8 billion in AAPL holdings makes him nearly a 6x bigger holder of the stock than the Swiss National Bank, is correct and AAPL is truly worth $240/share today, or about $1.4 trillion, roughly equivalent to 9% of US GDP, then this is how AAPL would rank if it were a sovereign nation...

 
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Carl Icahn Would Like Tim Cook To Buyback Some More Of His AAPL Shares





Here are the cliff notes of the Icahn letter:

  1. Uncle Carl and his two analysts remain convinced they know how to run AAPL better than its CEO and his thousands of employees.
  2. Uncle Carl and his two analysts have built up a massive stake in AAPL shares which however they can't get out of in this illiquid market without tipping the market they are selling - a tip which would promptly send the stock plunging - and as a result have come to the only buyer who is big enough to buy all of Icahn's shares without destabilizing the market: the company itself.
 
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In The New Paranormal, Junk Bonds Are A "Haven Asset"





With NIRP having turned traditional risk-free assets into guaranteed losers, investors have poured more than $9 billion into junk bond ETFs YTD, and while common sense dictates that buying at the top of an epic HY bubble just ahead of a rate hike cycle and against a backdrop characterized by disappearing liquidity in the secondary market for corporate credit is a fool's errand, most investors feel they have little choice. 

 
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Junk Bonds "Even More Dangerous" Than Stocks, Icahn Says





"They're buying the yield and they think 'Oh, bonds are going to go up,' but when they start coming down, there's going to be a great run to the exits and at least in 2008 you had a bit of a safety net with the prop desks at banks, but now with the Volcker rule you can't even depend on that."

 
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Buffett Loses A Bet, Fails To Pay... Again





On a day full of exultation for The Oracle of Omaha, we could not help but see the irony of Warren Buffett losing yet another bet and not paying up...

 
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Hedge Fund Manager Fears "Sudden, Pervasive Loss Of Faith" In Markets; Says "It's A Truly Scary Time"





First it was Sam Zell, warning "it's very likely that something has to give here." Then George Soros upped his market hedge drastically, followed by Carl Icahn's "worry about excessive money printing," adding that he was "very nervous" about US equity markets. "Financial markets are euphoric," warned Stan Druckenmiller, warning that "market participants are pricing in hardly any risks," and Crispin Odey explained "there are consequences to CB actions," stating that "we have front-row seats to an imminent market shock." And now hedge fund manager Andy Redleaf (who predicted "there is going to be a panic in credit markets," in 2007) has come out with the most ominous of warnings yet among the billionaire crowd... "I think it is a truly scary time."

 
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Bill Ackman Faces FBI Probe Over Possible Herbalife Stock Manipulation





Herbalife stock is up over 5% after hours after WSJ reports Bill Ackman (among others) made false statement about Herbalife's business models to regulators - in order to spur investigations into the company and lower its stock price. This comes just months after Ackman kinda-sorta-didn't-really insider-trade in the Allergan 'scam' that we detailed here. We suspect Whitney Tilson (and his Lumber Liquidators positions) is getting a little nervous now... and Carl Icahn is quietly laughing to himself.

 
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Frontrunning: March 3





  • 3 days after Zero Hedge, here's Bloomberg: Company Cash Bathes Stocks as Monthly Buybacks Set Record (BBG)
  • Israel's Netanyahu to address Congress in speech that has strained ties with Obama (Reuters), Risks Diplomatic, Political Pain If Speech Falls Flat (BBG)
  • Before Key Speech, Netanyahu Hails U.S. Ties (WSJ)
  • $1.92 bilion FX rigging charge: Barclays Posts Loss as Foreign-Exchange Provisions Rise (WSJ)
  • Barclays Awards Jenkins First Bonus as CEO, Cuts Pay Pool (BBG)
  • Exxon’s Russia Exposure Surges as Long View Outweighs Sanctions (BBG)
  • Obama says Iran must halt key nuclear work for at least a decade (Reuters)
  • Yellen Turning from Friend to Foe for Dollar Bulls (BBG)
 
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Apple's Record Market Cap In FX, Inflation-Adjusted Context





To everyone who says AAPLs upside from here may be limited due to the law of large numbers or some such (as if the NSA will ever stop handing out free student loans to make sure it has voluntary tabs on everyone) oh how wrong you are.

 
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Meet The Extreme Super Rich: A List Of The 80 People Who Own As Much As The World’s Poorest 3.6 Billion





"Eighty people hold the same amount of wealth as the world’s 3.6 billion poorest people, according to an analysis just released from Oxfam. The report from the global anti-poverty organization finds that since 2009, the wealth of those 80 richest has doubled in nominal terms — while the wealth of the poorest 50 percent of the world’s population has fallen." There you have it. The reason the wealth of the richest has doubled since 2009, is because “it’s not a recession, it’s a robbery.” Central bank and government policy has done this, it is no accident.

 
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Frontrunning: January 23





  • Saudi Arabia’s New King Probably Will Not Change Current Oil Policy (BBG)
  • Saudi King’s Death Clouds Already Tense Relationship With U.S. (WSJ)
  • Oil Pares Gains as New Saudi King Says Policies Stable (BBG)
  • Kuroda Says BOJ to Mull Fresh Options in Case of More Easing (BBG)
  • U.S. pulls more staff from Yemen embassy amid deepening crisis (Reuters)
  • Putin Said to Shrink Inner Circle as Hawks Beat Billionaires (BBG)
  • A Few Savvy Investors Had Swiss Central Bank Figured Out (WSJ)
 
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"Stocks Have Gone Up Due To The Fed" Carl Icahn Warns "It Will Come Home To Roost"





In an awkwardly uncomfortable non-cheerleadery few minutes on CNBC this morning, he-who-must-be-listened-to (when he is buying stuff and not selling it) - Carl Icahn - dropped a few truth bombs on an unsuspecting Scott Wapner. Starting with warnings about energy sector debt, fearing a surge in defaults and "what management can do to hurt you" if you own that debt, Icahn then moved on to discuss today's ECB move and its implications. Confirming his "extremely cautious" stance to the overall market, Icahn explained how "the reason the stock market has gone up is because of the Federal Reserve," and now the rest of the world is jumping on the bandwagon "with all this issuance of money," and the implicitly strengthening USDollar "will come home to roost at some point." While not pointing to a specific point in time, Icahn concluded, "you do have to be extremely cautious and we have hedges on.. and it's too early to buy oil stocks/bonds."

 
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Frontrunning: January 22





  • ECB to decide on bond-buying plan to revive euro zone (Reuters)
  • Draghi Is Pushing Boundaries of Euro Region with QE Program (BBG)
  • Investors Wonder Whether ECB Will Do Enough (WSJ)
  • Treasuries Drop With Bunds Before ECB; U.S. Futures Rise (BBG)
  • European shares hit seven-year high (Reuters)
  • At least eight civilians killed in shelling of Ukrainian trolleybus (Reuters), both sides blame each other
  • OPEC Will Blink First in Battle With Shale Drillers, Poll Shows (BBG)
  • China Injects $8 Billion Into Banking System (WSJ)
  • New York says Barclays not cooperating in 'dark pool' probe (Reuters)
 
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